耐用品与非耐用品季度环比动量通常为积极信号

tsetuphasbeenwhennondurablesalesareupon-US analysts on pages 5 - 11 of this report Laurence Alexander * I Equity Analyst(212) 284-2553 | lalexander@jefferies.comDaniel Rizzo * IEquity Analyst(212) 336-6284 I drizzo@jefferies.comKevin Estok*IEquity Associate(212)778-85161kestok@jefferies.comXianrao Zhu * IEquity Associate+1(212)778-87421xzhu@jefferies.comCarol Jiang * IEquity Associate+1 (212) 284-1714/I cjiang@jefferies.com JefferiesChart 1 - YoY, US Durable Goods Sales And Sales Vs. Inventories Are Close To Flat%0860%40%20%0%-40%%09--60%-40%Chart 2 - QoQ Sales Are Down And Well Below Inventories40%30%10%0%Sales (-30%-40%-50%-40%Source: FactSet, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited JefferiesChart 3 - YoY Nondurable Goods Sales Are Flat, With A Modest Inventory Build%08%己10%0%%08--20%-10%Chart 4 - QoQ Nondurable Goods Sales Are Down With One Of The Fastest Inventory Builds On Record%0840%20%0%2 -40%-60%-40%-30%Source: FactSet, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited JefferiesChart 5 - N3M % Chg. Based On Phase Of Durable & Non-Durable CyclesQ00MSCI ChemicalsCommodiy ChemicalsMSCI ChemicalsMSCI ChemicalsSource: Federal Reserve,ctset, Jefferies EstimatesChart 6 - N12M % Chg. Based On Phase Of Durables & Non-Durables Cycles000Commody hemicaliMsciceaiclondurable SalesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. JefferiesCompany Valuation/RisksAir ProductsOur s$350 price target is based on 26.2x 2027E EPS in 12-18 months, including 3x for improvement on visibility on returns for new project decisionsKey risks include slowing demand, failure to execute on pipeline derisking, and deterioration in capital disciplineHuntsman CorpOur 12-month price target of s17 equates to 6.5x 2027EEBiTDA based on peer multiples and our sector regressions. Key risks: end-market demandenergy costs, and FX.Linde PLCA 28.3x 2027E EPS multiple supports our $535 price target and is based on our growth duration model and peer multiples. Key risks include competitorbehavior disrupting supply/demand balancesMethanex Corp.Our $45 price target represents 4.7x 2027E EBITDA, benchmarked against petrochemical peers. Risks include end-market demand, capacity additions,and political risk.Analyst Certification:I, Laurence Alexander, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.I, Daniel Rizzo, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research reportI, Kevin Estok, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research reportI, Xianrao Zhu, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressednthisresearchreportI, Carol Jiang, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). T also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research reportAs is the case with all Jefferies employees,the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receives compensationas appropriate in the analyst's judgement.Investment Recommendation Record(Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR)Recommendation PublishedRecommendation DistributedExplanation of Jefferies RatingsBuy - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of 15% or more within a 12-month period.Hold - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of plus 15% or minus 10% within a 12-month period.Unde