美国银行2Q25区域银行预览：准备迎接上升趋势

11 July 2025EquityUnited StatesBanksEbrahim H. PoonawalaResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 743 0490ebrahim.poonawala@bofa.comBrandon BermanResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 3933brandon.berman@bofa.comChristian PanebiancoResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 3912christian.panebianco@bofa.comEric Dray, CFAResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 5780eric.dray@bofa.comGabriel AngeliniResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 3081gabriel.angelini@bofa.comDaniel CocchiaraResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 1870daniel.cocchiara@bofa.comAustin OrtizResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 5719austin.ortiz2@bofa.comAcronyms:AEA: Average earning assetsGSIB: Global systemically important bankM&A: Merger & acquisitionNIl: Net interest incomeNIM: Net interest marginPPNR: Pre-provision net revenueROA: Return on assetsTBV: Tangible book value Source: Bloomberg, BofA Global ResearchExhibit 7: ..s KRX trading at half turn discount to historic medianKRX P/E over the last decade20.0x16.513.09.5)6.0x201520172019Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg Mid-cap cons. 2025 P/TBV vs. ROTCE forecast18%·EWBC+TCBI16%PB● CFRWBSCMA.·WAL·FBP2025e FFLG·BPOP13%● FHNFHB· ALLY· ASB： ZION.11%UMBF1.1x1.5x1.8xP/YE25e TBVSource: BofA Global Research, Visible AlphaExhibit 11: BOH FY25 EPS revised ~10% but stock lagged peersPrice performance vs '25 EPS revisions, both since 4/4/202547%·EWBC● WBS.FNB38%●BPOPNOIZ● WALNHPerformance (since 4/4/25)TCBI30%UMBF！● CFRFBP· CMA21%·FHB· CBSH·PB12%●WASH%S--1%3%FY25 EPS revisions (since 4/4/25)Source: Visible Alpha, Bloomberg Price performance vs 25 EPS revisions, both since 4/4/202540%CFG ·HBAN·37%KEY ·Performance32%FITBTFC ·.MTB ·PNC·USB29%%9--3%0%3%FY25 EPS revisions (since 4/4/25)Source: Visible Alpha, BloombergBofA GLOBAL RESEARCHUS BanksI11 July2025 Source: BofA Global Research, Visibel Alpha PO changesWe roll forward our PO methodology to 50% FY26e P/E and 50% FY26e P/TBV from50% P/E (equal weight FY25/26e) and 50% P/TBV (equal weight FY25/26e).PNC: Our $223 PO is based on 50% FY26e P/E and 50% FY26e P/TBV. Assign 12.0x toFY26e EPS, 2.0x YE26e TBV. Previously 12.0x/11.0x to FY25/26e EPS, 2.0x/1.8xYE25/26e.FY26eEPS,1.5xYE26eTBV.Previously11.0x/10.0xtoFY25/26eEPS,1.5x/1.4xYE25/26e.USB:OurS54POisbasedon50%FY26eP/Eand50%FY26eP/TBV.Assign11.0xtoFY26e EPS,1.8xYE26e TBV.Previously 11.0x/10.0x to FY25/26e EPS,1.9x/1.6xYE25/26e. RF: Our $26 PO is based on 50% FY26e P/E and 50% FY26e P/TBV. Assign 11.0x toFY26eEPS,1.7xYE26eTBV.Previously11.0x/10.0xtoFY25/26eEPS,1.8x/1.5xYE25/26e.CFG: Our $52 PO is based on 50% FY26e P/E and 50% FY26e P/TBV. Assign 10.0x toFY26e EPS, 1.3x YE26e TBV. Previously 10.5x/9.5x to FY25/26e EPS, 1.1x/1.2xYE25/26e.FITB: Our $48 PO is based on 50% FY26e P/E and 50% FY26e P/TBV. Assign 12.0x toFY26e EPS, 2.0x YE26e TBV. Previously 12.5x/11.5x to FY25/26e EPS, 2.2x/1.8xYE25/26e.HBAN: Our $19 PO is based on 50% FY26e P/E and 50% FY26e P/TBV.Assign 12.5x toFY26e EPS, 1.6x YE26e TBV. Previously 12.5x/11.5x to FY25/26e EPS, 1.6x/1.4xYE25/26e.KEY: Our $20 PO is based on 50% FY26e P/E and 50% FY26e P/TBV. Assign 12.0x toFY26e EPS, 1.4x YE26e TBV. Previously 13.5x/12.5x to FY25/26e EPS, 1.4x/1.3xYE25/26e.MTB: Our $223 PO is based on 50% FY26e P/E and 50% FY26e P/TBV.Assign 12.5x toFY26e EPS, 1.8x YE26e TBV. Previously 13.0x/12.0x to FY25/26e EPS, 1.6x/1.6xYE25/26e.FLG: Our S13 PO is based on FY26e P/TBV. Assign 0.8x TO YE26e TBV. Previously0.9x/0.8x YE25/26eWAL: Our $105 PO is based on 50% FY26e P/E and 50% FY26e P/TBV. Assign 11.0x toFY26e EPS, 1.4x YE26e TBV. Previously 11.0x/10.0x to FY25/26e EPS, 1.6x/1.5xYE25/26e.EWBC: Our $125 PO is based on 50%FY26e P/E and 50% FY26e P/TBV. Assign 13.8x toFY26e EPS, 1.8x YE26e TBV. Previously 13.0x/12.0x to FY25/26e EPS, 1.8x/1.6xYE25/26e.CFR: Our $156 PO is based on 50% FY26e P/E and 50% FY26e P/TBV.Assign 16.0x toFY26e EPS, 2.5x YE26e TBV. Previously 16.0x/15.0x to FY25/26e EPS, 2.7x/2.1xYE25/26e.PB: Our $80 PO is based on 50% FY26e P/E and 50% FY26e P/TBV. Assign 13.0x toFY26e EPS, 1.6x YE26e TBV. Previously 13.0x/12.0x to FY25/26e EPS, 1.8x/1.7xYE25/26e.SNV: Our S67 PO is based on 50% FY26e P/E and 50% FY26e P/TBV. Assign 13.0x toFY26e EPS, 1.6x YE26e TBV. Previously 13.0x/12.0x to FY25/26e EPS, 1.6x/1.4xYE25/26e.FHN:Our$26POisbasedon50%FY26eP/Eand50%FY26eP/TBV.Assign14.0xtoFY26e EPS, 1.7x YE26e TBV. Previously 14.0x/13.0x to FY25/26e EPS, 1.6x/1.5xYE25/26e.FBP: Our $24 PO is based on 50% FY26e P/E and 50% FY26e P/TBV. Assign 10.5x toFY26e EPS, 1.7x YE26e TBV. Previously 11.0x/10.5x to FY25/26e EPS, 1.7x/1.6xYE25/26e.FHB: Our $26 PO is based on 50% FY26e P/E and 50% FY26e P/TBV. Assign 11.0x toFY26e EPS,1.9x YE26e TBV.Previously11.0x/10.0x toFY25/26e EPS, 1.9x/1.9xYE25/26e.B0H: Our $70 PO is based on 50% FY26e P/E and 50% FY26e P/TBV. Assign 13.0x toFY26e EPS, 1.6xYE26e TBV.Previously 11.0x/10.0x to FY25/26e EPS,1.9x/1.9xYE25/26e.12US Banks I11 July 2025 FY26e EPS, 2.4x YE26e TBV. Previously 15.5x/14.5x to FY25/26e EPS, 2.5x/2.4xYE25/26e.UMBF: Our $124 PO is based on 50% FY26e P/E and 50% FY26