欧洲非酒精饮料：欧盟扫描亮点...6月强劲的连续改善

In this report, we highlight the trends in the latest Nielsen data (w/e 15th Jun) for CarbonatedSoft Drinks, Sports & Energy Drinks, Mineral Waterand Fruit Juice in Western Europe (UK,France, Spain, Germany and Italy).Total soft drinks volume growth saw a large sequential improvement in June. Inthe 4wks to 15-Jun, total soft drinks YoY volume growth in Western Europe grew +5.6%,compared to +1.8% in May (likely helped by warmer weather). On a longer 12wk trailingbasis, total soft drinks YoY volume growth in Western Europe was +3.5%, also strongersequentially (+2.6% in May). Price-mix growth remained steady at +2.6%, bringing totalvalue growth in Western Europe to +6.3% in the 12wks trailing 15-Jun.All categories except for fruit juice saw volume growth accelerate. On a 12wk trailingbasis, Sports & Energy drinks and Mineral Water posted solid volume growth (+7.1% and+5.6% respectively), sequentially accelerating from May.CSDs posted improved volumegrowth (+1.2%), whilst Fruit Juice remained in decline (-5.1%). All categories saw positiveprice-mix growth, bringing value growth to +10.2% for Sports & Energy drinks, +8.0% forMineral Water, +5.5% for CSDs and +2.7% for Fruit Juice in the latest Nielsen data (12wktrailing basis),By gountry, France, Italy and Spain saw strong sequential volume growthimprovements. On a 12wk trailing basis, UK led the way with +6.1% YoY volume growth,(+3.2%) followed, with Germany (+0.8%) lagging behind in June.By company, Coca-Cola (not covered) volumes remain in modest decline. Monstel(notcovered)andPepsi (notcovered)sawstrongvolumegrowth (16.9%and9.8%)respectively, whilst Coca-Cola remained in slight volume decline (-0.7%) in June. Pepsi'sprice-mix slipped into decline compared to Monster and Coca-Cola's +MSD% growth,bringing YoY value growth to +20.4% for Monster, +8.6% for Pepsi and +4.3% for Coca-Cola in the 12wks trailing 15-Jun.es,analystcertificationsandotherwww.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingCCEP.SMMCCEP.LNMCCEP.NAMCCEPMEEE.GA0CCH.LN0EDMO- Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysisINVESTMENTIMPLICATIONSWe rate CCEP Market-Perform, with a Target Price of $84.5.We rate CCH Outperform, with a Price Target of 4,250 GBp.S微信EUROPEAN BEVERAGES c 911e DETAILSCCEPANDCCHSUMMARY(CATEGORYEXPOSUREBYREGION)EXHIBIT 1: Nielsen tracked countries in Western Europeaccount for ~60% of CCEP salesCCEP-Reported Net Sales by Country (F24P)Netherlands,Belgium andLuxembourg,5.2%Source: Company reports, Bernstein analysisEXHIBIT 3: Sparkling makes up ~81% of CCEP's volumes... EXHIBIT 4: ...and 70% of CCH's net revenueHydration &Tea/Coffee,12%Juice included in'Other inc. EnergySource: Company reports, Bernstein analysisWESTERNEUROPESUMMARYEUROPEAN BEVERAGES EXHIBIT 2: Italy accounts for 9% of CCH's group volumes3.8%Other,10.8%beria, 16.4%Great Britain,Ukraine, 4.2%9.3%16.1%Greece,France,11.2%Germany,15.4%Australia,Source: Company reports, Bernstein analysisCCEP - Volume by Category (2024)Other inc.Energy, 7%.Premium Spirits, 4%Hydration, 7%Coca-Cola, 59%Source: Company reports, Bernstein analysis CCH-Volume by Country (2024)Nigeria15.1%Other, 24.3%Russia, 13.8%Egypt,10.3%4.4%Serbia, 5.6%_Italy,Romania,8.5%%"9Poland, 7.5%CCH - Reported Net Sales by Category (2024)Coffee, 1%Snacks, 1%Tea, 2%Juice, 8%Sparkling,70%BERNSTEIN SOCIETE CENERALE CROUP By CategoryEXHIBIT 7: In total Western Europe, all categories except fruit juice saw sequential improvements in volume growthon a 12wk trailing basis15% -10%5%(5%)(10%)Source: Nielsen, Bernstein analysisEUROPEAN BEVERAGES By CountryEXHIBIT 10: On a 12wk trailing basis, France, Italy and Spain all saw sequential improvements in June10%%86%4%2%(2%)(%t)(6%)(8%)(10%)22AugSource: Nielsen, Bernstein analysisEUROPEAN BEVERAGES Source: Nielsen, Bernstein analysisEXHIBIT 12: Overall, UK led the way in YoY value growth at 9.3%15%-10%5%(5%)(10%)Source: Nielsen, Bernstein analysisBy PlayerEUROPEAN BEVERAGES BREAKDOWN BYCOUNTRYGermanyEXHIBIT 16: Germany - Total Soft Drinks by Brand12wks Traling13-Aug-2310-Sep-2308-0ct-2305-Nov-2303-Dec-2331-Dec-2328-Jan-2425-Feb-2424-Mar-2421-Apr-2419-May-2416Jun-2414Jul-2411-Aug-2408-Sep-2406-0ct-2403-Nov-2401-Dec-2429-Dec-2426-Jan-2523-Feb-2523-Mar-2520-Apr-2518-May-2515-Jun-252%Monster39.7%1%2%epsi(33.8%)Source:NielsenlQ, Bernstein analysisEXHIBIT17:Germany-CarbonatedSoftDrinksbyBrand12wks TraiMKT%GO412%(49.4%)3%Sunto7.3%3%Suntory25.1%g(31.10%)S5xSuntory.5%(1.6%)Source: NielsenlQ, Bernstein analysis (39.0%)33.3%21.1%15.1%(6.1%) Source:NielsenlQ,Bernstein analysisEXHIBIT 19: Germany - Mineral Water by Brand[12wks Triling13-Aug-2310-Sep-2308-0ct-2305-Nov-2303-Dec-2331-Dec-2328-Jan-2425-Feb-2424-Mar-2421-Apr-2419-May-2416Jun-2414-Jul-2411-Aug-2408-Sep-2406-0ct-2403-Nov-2401-Dec-2429-Dec-2426-Jan-2523-Feb-2523-Mar-2520-Apr-2518-May-2515-Jun-2510%6% Hassia Gruppc27.2%Isteiner BrunnenSource:NielsenlQ,Bernsteinana