美国建筑材料5月进口 - 中国进口因解放日关税初现崩溃

Restricted - External U.S. Homebuilding & Building ProductsPOSITIVEU.S. Homebuilding & BuildingProductsMatthew Bouley+12125269029matthew.bouley@barclays.comBCI, USElizabeth Langan+12125265960elizabeth.langan@barclays.comBCI, USAnika Dholakia+12125268780anika.dholakia@barclays.comBCI, USElaine Ku+12125267529elaine.ku@barclays.comBCI, US MHK (though a smaller relative impact vs. other pressures like pricing power and consumersentiment towards large-ticket R&R).In key categories, flooring imports sank -12% y/y in May (vs. +10% y/y in April). We note thatmonthly y/y flooring imports have been steadily positive since December 2023 except for June2024,and May's datareflects significantly depressed Chinaimport levels.Imports ofLvTflooring fell -15% y/y vs. +13% y/y in April, including +18% y/y from non-China sources,which we think is evidence of shifting sourcing away from China. Ex-China LVT imports arenow up +40% TTM y/y. Even with lesser tariff pressure now on China relative to 145% levels, weexpect this trend to continue, as China has continued to lose share from pre-Covid levels -though we think domestic producers like MHk have long shifted away from abundant Chineseconcentration. Ceramic imports fell -17% y/y (down from April's +2% y/y), though broadly wecontinue to see choppiness in imports data m/m - this is one category where the prior pre-buymay be reversing, in our view. Cabinet imports were -9% y/y in May vs. April's +1% y/y, withimports significantly outperforming KCMA in May. Chinesefaucet imports, which compete withMAS/FBIN, were down again at -46% y/y this month after -26% y/y in April.FIGURE 1. World Imports: Total Global Building Product Imports Were -9% y/y in May (vs. +3% y/y inApril)F %0950%40%%020%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)44522222233忆忆忆记一2World Monthly Building Product Imports Y/YWorld Total Imports Y/YeSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Barclays ResearchImport Transportation Cost Choppiness Still a Risk Following Red Sea Crisis and OngoingCapacity Constraint - Implications for MHK: Real-time indices indicate ocean shipping costsremain choppy (XSI -67% y/y and WCI -57% y/y), with the XSI/WCI settling at an average of~s2,900 as of the first week of July vs. an average of s5,600 in mid-June. We think the mid-Junespike may have been driven by the temporary increase in traffic at the beginning of Junefollowing a reduction in Red Sea attacks, with the end of June reflecting a dwindling back tomore normalized levels. We suspect the ongoing Red Sea Crisis, capacity constraint, and tariffvolatility will continue sustaining ongoing choppiness in rates. Increasing shipping costswould likely be a competitive tailwind for MHK, as MHK competes with Asian imports;the spot rate) reset during the spring, suggesting that recent fluctuations in spot may be closerto reflecting in the next round of contracts. Accordingly, the latest incline in shipping rates, ifsustained, could be helpful for names like FBIN/MAS/HLMN. 2 Flooring Imports: Ceramic -17% y/y, LVT -15% y/y in MayTotal global imports of ceramic tile to the U.S. were -17% y/y in May, down significantlyfrom April's +2% y/y. Ceramic tile imports were -6% m/m overall, much worse than thehistorical average of +10% m/m in May. Ceramic imports from Italy were -8% m/m, whileimportsfrom Spain were-15%m/m.Asharp decline in ceramicimports across allmajorimporters likely signals tariff volatility and uncertainty across the board, in our view, as tarifflevelsfluctuatedinto May.Wethinkthatbigticket categories like ceramic shouldremainchoppy,with affordabilityand softerconsumer confidencelikelypreventing meaningful volumeinflection. We will also be watching imports from India going forward (India's May imports wereup -3% m/m), noting the U.S. industry's attempt to place anti-dumping duties on the country,though note that India only accounts for ~6% (down from ~10% earlier in 2024) of ceramic tileimports by dollars (still, likely at lower price points). Still-elevated rates, slowed newthe main drivers of demand softness near/medium term, in our view. Near term, we wouldexpect some m/m improvement as June would reflect a less-volatile tariff environment. Forceramic, we expect that the recent decline in European natural gas prices (-30% YTD, though+3% y/y) may roll through as a cost tailwind in 2H for both European ceramic producers andMHK, though we note gas prices have continued to be volatile, which could persist as a risk toEuropean producers and MHK on the cost front.FIGURE 4. Global Ceramic Tile Imports Y/Y: Global Imports -17% Y/Y in MayY/Y140%120%100%80%%0940%20%(20%)(40%)(60%)J00roWorlditalyMexico/India/Turkey/BrazilSource: USA Trade Online, U.S. Census Bureau, Barclays Research Spain3 In the LVT category, $316 mn of LVT was imported to the U.S. in May, -15% y/y (after April was+13% y/y). LVT was down -19% m/m, much worse than +9% m/m in May on average. M/M datahasremainedchoppy,likely reflecting importer sensitivitytoelevatedfreight rates in thesummer and tariff no