中东覆盖：不稳定环境中的韧性

eatehing key routes. The strait of HormuzRestricted -External European Integrated EnergyPOSITIVEUnchangedEuropean Integrated EnergyLydia Rainforth, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 6669lydia.rainforth@barclays.comBarclays, UKRamachandra Kamath+91 (0)22 61752308ramchandra.kamath@barclays.comBarclays, UKNaisheng Cui, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 0486naisheng.cui@barclays.comBarclays, UKThea Lacroix+44 (0)20 3555 3088thea.lacroix@barclays.comBarclays, UKEuropean Energy ServicesMick Pickup+44 (0)20 3134 6695mick.pickup@barclays.comBarclays, UKPratikKadam+91 (0)22 6175 2301pratik.kadam@barclays.comBarclays, UK Results and forecast summaryEBITDNetCompanyResultsA, %income,now that replacement hirelengths have stabilised, we see a modest tick-upfrom 2Hprofitdatechy/y% ch y/y$1,270mWe forecast ADNOC Gas' proportionate EBITDA of $2.1bn, flat q/q driven by strong domestic gasperformance. We see resilient LPG price to offset slight weakness in ETL and LNG performance. WeoutsidetheUSwhoarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFiNRA.$2,130calculate benchmark LPG prices dropped 5-6% in 2Q vs 11-12% drop in Brent. This in our view, wouldm7%support margin and profitability in the second quarter. In-line with operating performance, we expectunderlying operating CFFO ex WC of approximately $1.5bn, down q/q.$329mADNOC Drilling recorded a strong 2Q in terms of order intake, totalling ca. US$4.4bn awards in AbuDhabi. Moreover, the company also announced acquisition of 70% stake in SLB's land drilling rigsADNOCDrilling30-Jul$523mbusiness in Kuwait and Oman, enabling the company to accelerate its expansion plans in the GCC11%region. Financially, we expect 2Q25 revenues up 23% y/y but down 2% q/q and EBITDA of $523mn,up 11% y/y but down 2% q/q, with an EBITDA margin of 45.5%.$166mWe expect high single digit growth in both retail and commercial volumes from low base of secondquarter of last year. We forecast non-fuel retail will also set to grow both sequentially and y/y in 2Q25.ADNOC7-Aug$265mThis however will be partially offset by relatively smaller inventories gain. In-line with underlyingDistribution-2%performance, we expect CFFO will be close to $265m. However, due to timing of dividend payment wesee sequential increase in net debt at the end of the quarter$207mUncertainty around impact of tariffs around global trade and political tensions in the Middle EastADNOCshaping up challenging backdrop for global marine shipping market. Vessel rates have been volatile12-Aug $350mduring the quarter. While tanker rates were higher at the starting of the quarter it moved down in lateL&S0%May. The escalation of geopolitical conflicts pushed shipping rates higher, it lasted for a short period.We forecast operating profit to increase 8% q/q while net profit to be up 12% q/q.$22mperformance set to drop from 1Q when the company strategically timed higher shipment. During the4-AugAmmonia prices down between 12-15%. Further, curtailed natural gas supply from Israel into EgyptFertiglobe$154m229%amid conflict likely to reduce production and sales volume in our view. Because of thesefactors, wereduce our adj. profit for shareholders estimate to $22m in 2Q25, down around 70% q/q. Given thetiming of dividend payment and share buyback we expect net debt to increase sequentially. Thecompany has repurchased more than 46 million shares or 0.55% of share capital for about $30 million.Results EBIT, %NetCompanyincome,Changesto estimates.We model rental profit c3%higher (beat in Spain)and net replacementdatech y/ychy/y$24.4bWe expect Saudi Aramco to report operating income down 5% q/q of $48.2bn, largely driven by lowerSaudioil prices partly offsetting higher production. Nevertheless benchmark refining margin improved in 2Q5-Aug$48.2bbut contribution will be limited at the group level. We forecast CFFO ex WC of s32bn implying negativeAramco-13%net free cash flow post dividend. The company had issued $5bn bonds during the quarter, which willbe reflected in increased net debt sequentially.covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a10July2025 ValuationMethodologyandRisksEuropean Integrated EnergyADNOCDistribution(ADNOCDISUH/ADNOCDIST.AD)Valuation Methodology: We set our price target using a DCF valuation which projects 5-7% a year cashflow per share growth out to 2035,discountedusing a 7.5% rate. Further upside could come from accretive acquisitions. At our price target, the stock would trade on 14x of 2026F EV/EBITDA, andgiven the higher growth rate we see this as justified.Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Valuation and Price Target: The financial structure for ADNOC Distributiondoes, from our perspective, minimise one of the key risks for the group, namely oil price volatility. Yet there are areas of risk we need to look at. Thisincludes a potential increase in regulatory costs with global emissions rules having the potential to raise expenses. Outside of the UAE, ADNOC willface competition i