美国股市周报：关税风险与不确定性并存，标普和纳斯达克创新高

仙Restricted -External U.S. Equity Product ManagementGroupTerence Malone'+1212 526 7578terence.malone@barclays.comBCI, USAndrew Ferremi"+1 212 526 8257andrew.ferremi@barclays.comBCI, US for the balanced business models of coOP/PFSI with meaningful servicing business segmentsthatshouldresultinstable,attractivereturns.Tapestry, Inc.: Handbag Promo Tracker: In a League of Its Own (07/10/2025). As highlighted byCoach Full-Line and Coach Outlet showed lower use of promos, suggesting strong demandtrends and clean inventory. Coach's brand momentum continues to build, enabling thecompany to pursue its "One Coach" strategy by increasing SKUs of traditionally full-priceproducts in outlet stores. Additionally, TPR has indicated that it plans to apply these learningsto Kate Spade by reducing promotional activity in order to position the brand for scalable,healthy growth. She sees some early signs that these initiatives are taking shape, with KateSpade brand running promotions at Flat-to-Better levels, though she acknowledges Kate Spaderemains a 'show-me' story. She reiterated her Ow rating as she sees sustained evidence of best-in-class brand heat from Coach and some early signs of progress at Kate Spade. She also raisedherPTto$105from$98.9C Other Noteworthy ResearchEquityReportsNorth America P&C Insurance: 2Q25 P&C Insurance Preview: Navigating Through A SofterMarket (07/07/2025)North America Life Insurance: 2Q25 EPS Preview: Equity Tailwinds, Capital Flexibility, andMedicaid Dental Risk (07/07/2025)Overweight (07/07/2025)Chime Financial Inc.: It's Chime Time: Initiating Coverage of CHYM With an OW Rating and S40PT (07/07/2025)Voyager Technologies Inc.: SMID Defense/Space Play Plus Starlab Kicker; Trading At Premium toPeers;InitiateatEW (07/07/2025)U.S. Mid-Cap Banks: 2Q25 Earnings Preview: Ro0m to Run (07/08/2025)U.S. Health Care Facilities & Managed Care: 2Q25 Earnings Preview: ELV Leads Off With LikelyCut to EPS (07/09/2025)U.S. Multi-lndustry: Q2 Preview: High investor expectations, as most companies look set to beatand raise despite tepid SCI / Consumer demand (07/09/2025)U.S. Health Care: Barclays 2Q25 Hospital Survey: Volumes Moderate, But Costs Well-Controlled(07/09/2025)Equinix, Inc.: Will the new strategy work? (07/11/2025)Global/Cross Asset ReportsThematic Investing: Unicorns: A framework to assess theme maturity (07/07/2025)US Rates Research: Wrapping up the big beautiful bill (07/08/2025)US Money Markets: Many big beautiful T-bills (07/08/2025)Emerging Asia: Critical import theory: Pharmaceutical and copper tariffs (07/09/2025)European Pharmaceuticals & Life Sciences: 200% tariff risk looming on Pharma imports into theUS?(07/09/2025)Federal Reserve Commentary: June FOMC minutes: Two step forward, some step back(07/09/2025)Emerging Asia: Tariffs: Heating up the blanket rate (07/11/2025)Equity Market Review: Melt-up and rotation (07/11/2025) 3 Recent Conviction Calls TrackelStockToneDate of CallPerformance to DateJuly 7 -July 11EQTBullish7-Jul-25(2.86%)UWMCBullish8-Jul-25(1.28%)BRSPBearish8-Jul-250.29%TPRBullish10-Jul-25(0.43%)June 23 -June 27MTDBullish24-Jun-253.33%QGENBullish24-Jun-251.98%RGENBullish24-Jun-257.94%NRGBullish26-Jun-25(5.71%)CARRBullish27-Jun-253.28%June 16 -June 20HNGEBullish16-Jun-2526.30%CYTKBullish16-Jun-257.63%NVDABullish17-Jun-2515.21%June 9 -June 13RBullish9-Jun-2514.09%GMEDBullish10-Jun-25(6.40%)NDAQBullish13-Jun-254.94%June 2 -June 6PRMBBullish4-Jun-25(6.65%)WHDBullish4-Jun-251.79%OGEBullish5-Jun-250.54%May 27 -May 30SUIBullish29-May-252.24%ROKBullish30-May-258.43%CRCBullish30-May-258.48%Performance is tracked for all conviction calls for a 6-week period based on the percentage change from the VWAP on theday of publication of the respective research note, through the date of this document. Relative performance versus the S&Pis matched to the date prior to publication. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.Source: Barclays Research, Bloomberg Key Index PerformanceKey IndicesCurrentDow43623.85Nasdaq Composite20238.30S&P 5006156.34Russell 20002171.63XIΛ16.30S&P Forward Earnings260.25S&P Forward P/E23.60S&P Risk Premium291.03IG Credit ytw5.03HY Credit ytw7.09Dollar (DXY)97.19SectorsCurrentBasic Materials555.65Consumer Discretionary1756.27Consumer Staples889.85Energy654.08Financial863.57Healthcare1570.37Industrials1235.59Technology4923.03Telecomms372.68Utilities412.92Source: BloombergKey Barclays ForecastsCurrent QS&P 500 (25)-GDP0.5Fed Funds*4.25-4.50EUR/USD *1.17USD/JPY *144Oil (WTI)71* FX forecasts and Fed Funds are on a strictly quarter by quarter basisSource: Energy Sigma: Wall of worry - Turning bulish (07/03/2025);Global Outlook: Turning the page (06/25/2025); U.S.update: China trade war de-escalation: Running it back (05/13/2025);Us Economics: Adjustments to our activity outlook(04/30/2025);Energy Sigma: Rocky road (04/28/2025);Fx Views: A Lower Dollar Forecast on Fed Independence Concerns(04/21/2025): Global Economics Weekly: The Week Ahead (04/17/2025); (04