2025全球劳动力趋势报告

2025 | Issue 2 Introduction The global labor market is undergoing significant transformationsdriven by a combination of technological advancements,demographic shifts and economic uncertainty. Nearly two years afterthe pandemic ended, disparities between developed and emergingmarkets are becoming more pronounced. High-income countries areexperiencing tight labor markets, while low- and middle-incomecountries face elevated unemployment rates driven by a highpercentage of educated youth, skills mismatch and economicslowdown. The recent US tariffs and economic tensions with Canada, Mexicoand China could also have several significant impacts on the labormarket. These tariffs will likely increase production costs forbusinesses that rely on imported goods, leading to higher prices forconsumers and potentially reducing demand for certain products.This could result in decreased production and, consequently, joblosses in affected industries. Retaliatory tariffs from these countries could also harm US exports,further impacting industries that rely on international trade. Theoverall effect could be a reduction in GDP and employment, withestimates suggesting a loss of around142,000full-time equivalentjobs due to the tariffs imposed during the 2018-2019 trade war. Inthe long run, these trade tensions might also discourage investmentand innovation, as businesses face uncertainty and higher costs,leading to an economic slump which will limit future job creation. The Wage Issue In this issue of the Workforce Trends Report, we provide a comprehensive analysis of wage growth trends across North America, Latin America, Europe and the Asia-Pacificregion, highlighting significant regional disparities and the economic factors that are influencing these trends. We also deep dive into pay transparency and cover recent legislation that aims to promote fairness and equity in the workplace, with new laws enacted in the UK, EuropeanUnion and several other countries. And finally, we share recruitment insights from AGS’ Strategic Suppliers who reveal the latest trends in talent acquisition, emphasizing the importance of competitive ratesand flexible work benefits which continue to be the top two most important factors when attracting and retaining top talent. In 2024, wages grew in North America as the economycontinued to grow at a higher pace relative to the rest of theworld.Wages are likely to continue strong growth in 2025, asinflation is expected to rise again, but could be dampened by acontinually weakening real economy. United States In 2024, US average hourly earnings grew nominally by $1.40, or 4.5%. This is a slightuptick from 2023, when average hourly earnings grew at 4.3%, and a return to the 4.5%average hourly earnings growth seen in 2022. The average hourly earnings growth in 2024was driven by strong overall economic growth in the US and wages continuing to catch upto stabilizing prices. While the labor market was primarily driven by healthcare, educationand government hiring in 2024, these sectors did not primarily drive wage growth. The sectors that saw the most growth in average hourly earnings were professionaland business services at 5.1%; other services (e.g., social assistance, emergencyservices, housing) at 4.7%; and information at 4.6%. Sectors that saw the least averagehourly earnings growth include mining and logging at 2%, wholesale trade at 2.3%;and transportation and warehousing at 2.5%. These sectors lost jobs or hiredminimally in 2024, leading to lower sectoral wages. Regionally, wages have grown most in high-costmarkets (e.g., San Francisco, New York, Boston), asthese markets have high inflation and are home to thetop-paying companies in the world. Wages in high-cost markets have grown 44% since 2019 and havecontinued to become increasingly untethered fromthe growth of medium- and low-cost markets. Medium-cost (e.g., Chicago, Denver, Cleveland) andlow-cost (e.g., Tampa, Oklahoma City) labor marketshave not seen the same wage growth as high-costmarkets. From 2019 to 2024, medium-cost marketshave grown by 32%, while low-cost market wageshave grown by 28%. Wage growth in these areas hasbeen driven by employers hiring more in thesemarkets as they look to lower overall labor costs. Thistrend is likely to continue to help drive wage growth inthe coming years in these markets. A Look at AGS’ Major Labor Categories Looking at AGS labor categories, nationally, engineering jobs led median weekly nominal earnings growthin 2024, coming in at 4.9%. This was the only labor category to see higher wage growth than 2023, whenearnings grew at 2.9%. This low earnings growth in 2023 led to a bounce back in wage growth in 2024.Earnings growth is also bolstered by a reduced number of engineering graduates and holes left in theworkforce by retired engineers. Earnings may continue to climb in 2025, but tariffs and reducedmanufacturing activity may lead to reduced growth. Scientific/healthcare jobs experienced 4.5%