铂金基本面强势将持续至2026年

eC Michael HsuehResearch Analyst+65-6423-7510 7July2025Precious Blogconcerns during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, which turned out to berather short-lived.Nonetheless,in extrapolating fromthe 2006-24historical pattern,wethinkthere isupsidetoour2026palladiumpricetargetofUSD1,250/oz.ApalladiumpriceofUsD 1,400/oz in 2026 would not seem very much out of place, implying potentialfor platinum to rise to USD 1,550/oz versus our forecast of USD 1,400/oz in 2026(Commodities Outlook).We see a few reasons to be cautious. One is that the renaissance in platinumjewelleryfabricationmaynotyetbe representativeof asimilarrebirthinend-userdemand, a concern shared by both Johnson Matthey and SFA Oxford. Historicallyperiods of strong platinum jewellery demand have been marked by strength inplatinum prices relative to gold, ratherthan weakness. A second observation is thatthe weakness in South African mined PGM volumes may be temporary, as there areseasonalaspectsofQ1weaknesswhichshouldsubsideinQ2andQ3.Heavyrainsduring February have been cited by Anglo American and Statistics South Africa ashaving affected output. Consistent with a later-year recovery is the fact that minershave maintained guidance, and margins over AisC are set to improve from 10 to15% based on the year-to-date 6E basket.Figure 1: China platinum imports exceeding demandestimate like in 2023, 2024 (Jan-May annualised koz)4000350030002500200015001000China500200920112013201520172019202120232025Source : Johnson Matthey, Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche BankPage 2 Figure 2: Plug-in hybrids outperformed forecast whileBEVs underperformed in 2024China annual import quantity (koz)China regional demand (koz)1400000012000000100000008000000600000040000002000000China regional demand (koz)2024 BEVforecastSource : Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Deutsche Bank Appendix 1Important Disclosures*Other information available upon request*Prices are current as of the end of the ,previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localand other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research, please visit our globaldisclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FlCCDisclosures. Aside from withinDisclaimer.. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.Analyst Certificationin this report. Michael Hsueh.Page 4 Deutsche Bank AG/Singapore 7 July 2025Precious Blogof these products for use by investors depends on the investors' own circumstances, including their tax position, theirregulatoryenvironment andthenatureof theirotherassetsandliabilities;assuch,investors shouldtakeexpertlegal andfinancial advice before entering into any transaction similar to or inspired by the contents of this publication. The risk of lossin futures trading and options, foreign or domestic, can be substantial.theoretically unlimited losses. Trading in options involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling anoption, investors must review the 'Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options", at https://www.theocc.com/company-information/documents-and-archives/publications. If you are unable to access the website, please contact your DeutscheBankrepresentativeforacopyofthisimportantdocument.Participants in foreign exchange transactions may incur risks arising from several factors, including the following: (i) exchangerates can be volatile and are subject to large fluctuations; (ii) the value of currencies may be affected by numerous marketfactors, including world and national economic,political and regulatoryevents,events inequity and debtmarkets and changesin interest rates; and (ili) currencies may be subject to devaluation or government-imposed exchange controls, which couldunderlying security, effectively assume currency risk.Unless governing law provides otherwise, all transactions should be executed through the Deutsche Bank entity, in theinvestor's home jurisdiction. Aside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https:llresearch.db.com/Research/ on each company's research page. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this informationbefore investing.Deutsche Bank (which includes Deutsche Bank AG, its branches and affiliated companies) is not acting as a financial adviser,this report. Deutsche Bank does not provide investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, Deutsche Bank is not acting as yourimpartial adviser, and does not express any opinion or recommendation whatsoever as to any strategies, products or any otherinformation presented in the materials. Information contained herein is being provided solely on the basis that the recipientwill make an independent assessment of the merits of any investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendationThe information presentedis general in natureandis notdirected to retirementaccounts orany specific person or accounttype,The informati