行业研究公司研究宏观策略财报招股书会议纪要稀土低空经济 DeepSeek AIGC 智能驾驶大模型

铂金基本面强势将持续至2026年

有色金属2025-07-07德意志银行章***

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Platinum deficits have been significant since 2023, with fundamental strength expected to persist into 2026. Platinum has led the PGM rally in both timing and extent, and is favored for forward balances. By 2026, platinum fundamental deficits will have been four years in a row, unlike palladium, which is expected to see a balanced to modestly oversupplied market in 2026.

The report starts with the view that continued platinum fundamental deficits should eventually make their way into the price, though timing was initially more doubtful. Factors supporting this include high autocat demand versus the 2018-22 rate and positive plug-in hybrid sales compared to BEVs. The rally has been supported by (a) a narrative around jewellery fabricator substitution from gold into platinum, (b) the rally in lease rates, which is taken as a sign of physical shortage, and (c) the possibility that consecutive years of deficit have eroded industrial stocks to the point where some re-stocking would be required.

The operating premise is that economic and supply chain rationales exist behind industrial users' significant inventory of PGMs and their ability to absorb surpluses and deficits within limits. The low cost of storage relative to metal value would factor into this calculus. However, no visibility on the level of these stocks means caution is warranted regarding the inference that re-stocking would be required.

Upside risk to forecasts comes from the relationship between physical fundamentals and PGM prices, which is fraught with hazard. Palladium offers a more rational and stronger historical relationship, as palladium prices tend to drive secondary supply from autocatalysts. Reading from the ratio of model-implied stocks to gross demand, the real palladium price remains substantially below the polynomial regression line. Extrapolating from the 2006-24 historical pattern, the report thinks there is upside to the 2026 palladium price target of USD 1,250/oz, with a palladium price of USD 1,400/oz in 2026 not seeming very much out of place, implying potential for platinum to rise to USD 1,550/oz versus the forecast of USD 1,400/oz in 2026.

Caution is advised due to the renaissance in platinum jewellery fabrication possibly not being representative of a similar rebirth in end-user demand, a concern shared by Johnson Matthey and SFA Oxford. Historically, strong platinum jewellery demand has been marked by strength in platinum prices relative to gold. Another observation is that the weakness in South African mined PGM volumes may be temporary, as there are seasonal aspects of Q1 weakness which should subside in Q2 and Q3. Heavy rains during February have affected output, and miners have maintained guidance with margins over AISC set to improve from 10% to 15% based on the year-to-date 6E basket.

eC Michael HsuehResearch Analyst+65-6423-7510 7July2025Precious Blogconcerns during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, which turned out to berather short-lived.Nonetheless,in extrapolating fromthe 2006-24historical pattern,wethinkthere isupsidetoour2026palladiumpricetargetofUSD1,250/oz.ApalladiumpriceofUsD 1,400/oz in 2026 would not seem very much out of place, implying potentialfor platinum to rise to USD 1,550/oz versus our forecast of USD 1,400/oz in 2026(Commodities Outlook).We see a few reasons to be cautious. One is that the renaissance in platinumjewelleryfabricationmaynotyetbe representativeof asimilarrebirthinend-userdemand, a concern shared by both Johnson Matthey and SFA Oxford. Historicallyperiods of strong platinum jewellery demand have been marked by strength inplatinum prices relative to gold, ratherthan weakness. A second observation is thatthe weakness in South African mined PGM volumes may be temporary, as there areseasonalaspectsofQ1weaknesswhichshouldsubsideinQ2andQ3.Heavyrainsduring February have been cited by Anglo American and Statistics South Africa ashaving affected output. Consistent with a later-year recovery is the fact that minershave maintained guidance, and margins over AisC are set to improve from 10 to15% based on the year-to-date 6E basket.Figure 1: China platinum imports exceeding demandestimate like in 2023, 2024 (Jan-May annualised koz)4000350030002500200015001000China500200920112013201520172019202120232025Source : Johnson Matthey, Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche BankPage 2 Figure 2: Plug-in hybrids outperformed forecast whileBEVs underperformed in 2024China annual import quantity (koz)China regional demand (koz)1400000012000000100000008000000600000040000002000000China regional demand (koz)2024 BEVforecastSource : Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Deutsche Bank Appendix 1Important Disclosures*Other information available upon request*Prices are current as of the end of the ,previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localand other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research, please visit our globaldisclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FlCCDisclosures. Aside from withinDisclaimer.. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.Analyst Certificationin this report. Michael Hsueh.Page 4 Deutsche Bank AG/Singapore Additional InformationThe information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively 'DeutscheBank'). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to bereport are provided for reader convenience only. Deutsche Bank neither endorses the content nor is responsible for theaccuracy or security controls of those websites.If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in this report, oris included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst, Deutsche Bank may act asprincipal for its own account or as agent for another person.Deutsche Bank may considerthis reportin decidingto tradeas principal. Itmay also engage in transactions,forits own accountincluding strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with those taken in this researchreport. Deutsche Bank issues a variety_of research products, including fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis,quantitative analysis and trade ideas.'Recommendations contained in one type of communication may differ fromrecommendations contained in others, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, perspectives orotherwise. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliates may also be holding debt or equity securities of the issuers it writes on. Analystsandprincipaltrading revenues.Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date of this report. They do notnecessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to change without notice. Deutsche Bank provides liquidityfor buyers and sellers of securities issued by the companies it covers. Deutsche Bank research analysts sometimes haveshorter-termtradeideasthatmaybe inconsistent withDeutsche Bank's existinglonger-termratings.Sometradeideasforequities are listed as Catalyst Calis on the Research Website (https:/research.db.com/Research/) , and can be found on thegeneral coverage list and also on the covered company's page. A Catalyst Call represents a high-conviction belief by an analystthat a stock will outperform or underperform the market and/or a specified sector over a time frame of no less than two weeksand no more than three months. In addition to Catalyst Calls, analysts may occasionally discuss with our clients, and withDeutsche Bank salespersons and traders, trading strategies or ideas that reference catalys

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