固收专题报告：流动性｜资金利率还能继续下移吗？

证券研究报告 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！分析师孙彬彬SAC证书编号：S0160525020001sunbb@ctsec.com分析师隋修平SAC证书编号：S0160525020003suixp@ctsec.com分析师汪梦涵SAC证书编号：S0160525030003wangmh01@ctsec.com分析师刘金金SAC证书编号：S0160524050001liujj01@ctsec.com相关报告1.《利率|6月数据是否冲量？》2025-07-032.《信用|超长债行情结束了吗？》2025-07-023.《 宏 观|生 育 补 贴 “ 再 期 待 ”》2025-07-02 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准1资金利率还能继续下移吗？...................................................................................................................52周度资金存单跟踪和关键点提示...........................................................................................................93央行：月初惯性净回笼.........................................................................................................................114政府债：下周政府债净缴款上升至2502亿元...................................................................................115票据：跨季票据利率上行，跨年票据利率下行.................................................................................136汇率：统计期升值，人民币即期汇率录得7.17.................................................................................147市场资金供需：国有行融出抬升.........................................................................................................158CD：国有行负债端压力缓解，存单收益率下行...............................................................................198.1一级发行市场：本周国有行净融资继续为负，发行利率下降....................................................198.2二级交易市场：活跃度上抬，农商行和理财补入存单................................................................229风险提示.................................................................................................................................................22图1.本周央行投放情况.................................................................................................................................5图2. DR001和R001均下行至1.40%之下..................................................................................................5图3.净回笼背景下国有行净融出上升到年内最高位.................................................................................6图4.本周资金体感情况.................................................................................................................................6图5.资金波动的季节规律.............................................................................................................................7图6. Shibor 3M开始加速下行......................................................................................................................7图7.存单收益率快速下行时，明显是理财的加入.....................................................................................7图8.存单活跃度抬升.....................................................................................................................................7图9.资金利好，驱动存单曲线牛陡变化.....................................................................................................8图10.货基买入量低于季节性.......................................................................................................................8图11.按照季节性，理财后续会加大存单买入...........................................................................................8图12. 1年期存单的季节性走势.....................................................................................................................8图13.一周资金和存单关键点跟踪...............................................................................................................9图14.下周资金扰动因素.............................................................................................................................10图15.央行周度操作和资金价格走势.........................................................................................................11图16.逆回购存量仍旧高于季节性.............................................................................................................11内容目录图表目录 2 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准3图17.统计期短期资金到期情况.................................................................................................................11图18.统计期或有中长期资金到期情况.....................................................................................................11图19.政府债净融资和缴款情况.................................................................................................................12图20.政府债净融资进度.............................................................................................................................12图21.结构视角政府债净融资量和进度情况.............................................................................................12图22.国债净融资进度.................................................................................................................................13图23.地方政府债净融资进度.....................................................................................................................13图24.政府债发行和缴款日历.....................................................................................................................13图25.票据绝对利率走势.............................................................................................................................14图26.票据相对利率走势.............................................................................................................................14图27.即期汇率相对中