了解阿富汗的通货膨胀动态（英）2025

*This paper is prepared under the guidance of Abdullah AlHassan.The author would like to thankSilviaIorgova,ChandanaKularatne,Zeine Zeidane, andLi Zeng for theirvaluable guidanceand insightfulcommentsandRheaGuptaandNataliya Bondarfortheirassistance.IMF Working PaperMiddle East and Central Asia DepartmentUnderstanding Inflation Dynamics in AfghanistanPrepared byKarim Badr*Authorized for distribution byZeine ZeidaneMay2025IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.ABSTRACT:Over the past two decades, Afghanistan experienced three main periods of deflation, with thelatest being the longest. This paper investigates the macroeconomic factors influencing inflation dynamics inthe short and long run, considering both domestic and external factors. Utilizing quarterly data and employingAutoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) methodologies, the paper finds thatthe exchange rate is the primary long-term price driver due to Afghanistan's reliance on imports and foreign aid,followed by money supply and international commodity prices. In the short run, inflation is persistent, and broadmoney have a significant impact on inflation compared to external factors.RECOMMENDED CITATION:Badr, K. (2025).“Understanding Inflation Dynamics in Afghanistan”. IMFE31, E51Afghanistan;Inflation;Deflation;Money Supply;Exchange Rate;Fragile and Conflict States;Commodity Priceskbadr@imf.org Working Paper No. WP/25/137JEL Classification Numbers: Keywords:Author’s E-Mail Address: Understanding InflationDynamicsin AfghanistanPrepared byKarim Badr INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDI.INTRODUCTION______________________________________________________________________________3II.STYLIZED FACTS______________________________________________________________________________4A.Consumption Basket___________________________________________________________________________4B.Domestic Drivers of Inflation___________________________________________________________________7C.External Drivers of Inflation____________________________________________________________________7III.EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS______________________________________________________________________10IV.CONCLUSION_______________________________________________________________________________13REFERENCES___________________________________________________________________________________14ANNEX: TESTS AND FULL REGRESSION RESULTS__________ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED.BOXES1. Unpacking Three DeflationaryEpisodes________________________________________________________62. Exchange Rate and Inflation Dynamics_________________________________________________________9FIGURES1.CPI Inflation in FCS_____________________________________________________________________________32. Composition and Weights of Consumption Basket_____________________________________________53. Contributions to inflation_______________________________________________________________________54.Food inflation and International Commodity Prices____________________________________________65. Money supply and inflation____________________________________________________________________76.International commodity prices and Inflation___________________________________________________77.Nominal exchange rate and CPI________________________________________________________________88.On-and Off-Budget Grants____________________________________________________________________8TABLES1. Autoregressive Distributive Lag models_______________________________________________________112. Long-Run Relationships_______________________________________________________________________123. Error Correction Models_______________________________________________________________________13REFERENCES______________________________________________________________________________________14ANNEXAnnex: Tests and Full Regression Results_________________________Error! Bookmark not defined. INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDI.IntroductionAfghanistan hasfaceddeflation since April 2023 attributed to weakdomesticdemand, currency appreciation,and favorable international commodity prices.1Thisrepresentsthe thirdoccurrence of deflationin the country,following similarepisodesin 2009/10 and 2015(Box 1). The first episode was primarily driven by fallinginternational commodity prices,while the secondresulted fromweak domestic demand and declining food andfuel prices. Thelatestdeflationary episodehas beenmore prolongedcompared tothe previous instances.Deflationary pressures canimpedeeconomic recovery by reducing consumption, constraining investment, andincreasing real wages. As pricesfall, consumers postpone purchases,diminishingdemand and discouragingproduction.Whiledeflationmay temporarilyboost real wages,the resultantincre