IMF-丹麦：2025年第四条咨询版本；和员工报告

2025ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE;ANDSTAFF REPORT Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswith members, usually every year. In the context of the2025Article IV consultation withDenmark, the following documents have been released and are included in this package: •APress Release. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration on a lapse-of-time basis, following discussions that ended onMay 13, 2025, with the officials of Denmark on economic developments and policies.Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report wascompleted on June16, 2025. •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMF staff. The document listed below have been or will be separately released. Selected Issues TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the public fromInternational Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultationwith Denmark FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE •Strong growth has continued, primarily driven by pharmaceutical exports. Publicfinances and external positions are robust, and the financial system has demonstratedresilience to multiple shocks in recent years. •Growth is expected to moderate in the near term as external demand weakens andthe exceptional pharmaceutical expansion begins to normalize. •The policy priority is to uphold fiscal sustainability amid rising defense and aging-related expenditures, ensure financial stability, and further intensify structural reformsto support high levels of income and sustain the welfare state. Washington, DC – July 4, 2025:The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund(IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation1for Denmark and considered and endorsedthe staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse of time basis.2 Strong growth has continued, primarily driven by the expansion of pharmaceuticalexports, while domestic demand has been relatively sluggish. Inflation has remainedbelow 2 percent. Public finances and external positions are robust, and the financialsystem has demonstrated resilience to multiple shocks in recent years. Output growth is expected to moderate from 3.7 percent in 2024 to 3.0 percent in 2025and further to 1.8 percent in 2026. Exports growth, including pharmaceutical exports, isexpected to slow, while the full reopening of the Tyra natural gas and oil field, whichoperated at reduced capacity last year following maintenance, will provide a temporaryboost in 2025. The U.S. is a key trading partner. However, a significant portion of Danishexports to the U.S. consists of merchanting and processing, while exports of goodsproduced in Denmark passing through customs make up only 3 percent of total exports,limiting the direct impact of U.S. tariffs on the Danish economy. External risks dominate the outlook, including reversal of globalization, including higher trade barriers anddeepening geoeconomic fragmentation. Executive Board Assessment Denmark’s growth is expected to remain relatively strong, but elevated global uncertaintyclouds the outlook. Output growth is projected to gradually moderate to its potential,with slowing exports, including in pharmaceuticals, offset by a pickup in domesticdemand. Medium-term growth is projected at around 1.5 percent, assuming a maturingpharmaceutical sector and a declining working-age population. Labor market pressureshave eased, with inflation anticipated to stay around 2 percent. External risks dominatethe outlook, including reversal of globalization, including higher trade barriers anddeepening geoeconomic fragmentation. Denmark’s robust institutions, competitive andrelatively diversified economic structure, strong fiscal position, and highly educatedworkforce all reinforce its resilience to external shocks. Staff assesses that Denmark’sexternal balance is stronger than the level implied by medium-term fundamentals anddesirable policies. Although Denmark’s fiscal position is strong, significantly higher and more persistentincreases in defense spending would require adjustment measures to ensure long-termfiscal sustainability. These adjustment measures should be growth-friendly while ensuringfairness to preserve the welfare state. While both expenditure and revenue measuresshould be explored, given the already high tax burden, adjustments could come morefrom spending than revenue measures. Structural reform efforts will continue to be vitalto enhance labor supply and income levels, thus generating revenues. The structuralbalance floor of -1 percent of GDP under current national fiscal