半导体：主题投资与宏趋势：2025年上半年AI需求检验；计算需求持续增长

Thematic investing and megatrends:1H25 AI demandcheck;Computedemand continues to grow We remain structurally bullish on AI infrastructure investmentsupported bysustained momentum in compute-intensive investments.Major hyperscalers’capexcontinuetogrow,at43%YoYforoverseasBigFour(MSFT/AMZN/GOOG/META)and 44%YoY for domestic Big Three(Alibaba/Tencent/Baidu) in 2025, per Bloombergconsensusestimates.Recentearnings resultsacross thesupply chain confirms AI-related spend.TSMC’s(TSMC US, NR) 1H25 revenue was NT$ 1,773bn, up 40% YoY.FoxconnIndustrial Internet(601138CH, NR) alsoexpects2Q25 NP to shareholders toreach RMB6.7bn-6.9bn, up 37%-39% YoY. Riding the AItailwinds,domesticsupply chain names have seen meaningful sharepricerecovery.Concurrently,multiple domesticcomputing chip providers plan to go public, showing thesemiconductor localization trend is intact.Maintain BUYonInnolight (300308CH, TP: RMB151)andShengyi Tech (600183 CH, TP: RMB34.5),twocore AIhardware beneficiaries(Optical transceiversand PCB)under our coverage. China Semiconductors Sector Lily YANG, Ph.D(852) 3916 3716lilyyang@cmbi.com.hk Kevin ZHANG(852)3761 8727kevinzhang@cmbi.com.hk Jiahao Jiang(852) 39163739JiangJiahao@cmbi.com.hk Related reports:1.Semiconductors -Thematicinvesting and megatrends: China’shyperscalers accelerate AI infra.buildout amid strengthening clouddemand(link)2.Semiconductors-Thematicinvestingandmegatrends:Resilient1Q25 capex amonghyperscalers(link)3.Semiconductors-Thematicinvestingandmegatrends:Alibaba’s bold capex hike a boosttodomesticAIinfrastructuresuppliers(link)4.Semiconductors-Thematicinvesting and megatrends: Viewson DeepSeek(link)5.Semiconductors-Thematicinvestingandmegatrends:Stargatepoised to accelerateglobal AI arms race(link)6.Semiconductors-TSMC: SurgingAIdemands propelled strongresults and guidance(link)7.Semiconductors-Nvidia’s 3Qearningstakeaway:Strongdemandfor Blackwell well intonext year(link)8.Semiconductors-AMD“Advancing AI” event(link)9.Semiconductors-Sector valuationrevisit after recent rally; Potentialrerating opportunities ahead(link)10.Semiconductors-Nvidia2Qreview:A strong beat-and-raisequarter;eyesonBlackwellshipment and margin(link)11.Semiconductors-PCB sector:1H24 earnings preview(link)12.Semi-Solid earnings;HBM todrive future growth(link)13.Semi-Thematic investing andmegatrends: AIexposure update(link)14.Semi-Marvell FY1Q25 earnings:Harnessing the AI revenue(link) AIinfrastructure demand remains robust,driven by sustainedhyperscaler capex and surging reasoningworkloads.TSMC reportedJune resultson Friday, with the latest monthly sales toppingNT$263.7bn, up26.9%YoY.2Q sales added up to NT$933.8bn(slightly exceedingBloombergconsensus of NT$928.2bn),up 38.6%YoY.TSMC is thebellwether of AI supply chain and its solid resultsreaffirm the AI investingboom. Foxconn Industrial Internetalsoexpects its2Q25 NP to shareholdersto reach RMB6.7bn-6.9bn, up 37%-39% YoY. Mgmt. highlighted stronggrowth in the Cloud Computing segment (>50% YoY),fuelledby acceleratedproduction scale-up,anoptimized product mix, and hyperscalerdemand forAI data centers(AI server salesgrowth exceeding 60% YoYandQ2800Gswitch salesalonenearlytripledfull-year sales in 2024, per mgmt.).These dynamics are cascading downstream into the PCB and optical moduleplayers. Innolight’shigh-speed optical transceivers (800G/1.6T) are seeingheighteneddemand amid accelerated AI datacenter cluster buildouts.Meanwhile, Shengyi’s highlayer-count and frequency PCBs stand to benefitfrom the growing material complexityfrom GPU architectureupgrades. China’sdomestic AI supply chain is accelerating,driving thesubstitutiontrend.China’s AI hardware landscape is rapidly scaling,supportedby rising local compute demand and growing geopoliticalpressures that are catalysing the development ofhomegrownalternatives(theban on Nvidia’s H20in Chinahasprovided opportunities for domesticXPU names). Domestic hyperscalers such as Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidudoubledtheir capex in 1Q25,and we believe this strong investmentmomentumwillcontinue throughout2025. On the hardware side, leading AIchipmakers, such asMoore Threadsand MetaX(cum.GPU shipments25k+as of 1Q25),are actively advancing towardsIPOs, reflecting clear signs ofpolicy endorsement and increasing capital market confidence in China’s AIecosystem, which have also favored the domestic AI supply chain. In our view, AI infrastructureinvestment theme remains the mostcompelling one across global tech.Recent earnings from upstreamfoundries to downstream hyperscalers and AI enablers’ capex both validatethestrong compute demand.Maintain BUY on key domestic AI beneficiariessuch asInnolight (300308 CH, BUY)andShengyi Tech (600183 CH, BUY).Weexpect these names to benefit directly from AI cluster buildouts,GPU/ASIC cycle upgrades, and accelerated domestic substitution. Source: Company data, CMBIGM Source: Company data, CMBIGM Source:Bloomberg consensus,CMBIGM Source:Bloomberg consensus,CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers A