短期内股指震荡偏强运行

请务必阅读文末免责条款股指衍生品（仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议）请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 专业研究·创造价值姓名：龙奥明宝城期货投资咨询部从业资格号：F3035632投资咨询号：Z0014648电话：0571-87006873邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com作者声明：本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货从业资格证书，期货投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的研究观点。本人不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值正文目录1市场回顾....................................................................51.1股指走势................................................................51.2期权价格走势............................................................61.3股指期货基差与月差......................................................92期权指标...................................................................112.1 PCR指标................................................................112.2隐含波动率.............................................................133结论.......................................................................16 2/17请务必阅读文末免责条款 专业研究·创造价值图表目录图1上证50指数价格走势..........................................................5图2沪深300指数价格走势.........................................................5图3中证500指数价格走势.........................................................5图4中证1000指数价格走势........................................................5图5 IH基差价格走势..............................................................9图6 IF基差价格走势..............................................................9图7 IC基差价格走势.............................................................10图8 IM基差价格走势.............................................................10图9 IH跨期价差走势.............................................................10图10 IF跨期价差走势............................................................10图11 IC跨期价差走势............................................................10图12 IM跨期价差走势............................................................10图13上证50ETF期权持仓量PCR...................................................11图14上交所300ETF期权持仓量PCR................................................11图15深交所300ETF期权持仓量PCR................................................11图16沪深300股指期权持仓量PCR.................................................11图17中证1000股指期权持仓量PCR................................................12图18上交所500ETF期权持仓量PCR................................................12图19深交所500ETF期权持仓量PCR................................................12图20创业板ETF期权持仓量PCR...................................................12图21深证100ETF期权持仓量PCR..................................................12图22上证50股指期权持仓量PCR..................................................12图23科创50ETF期权持仓量PCR...................................................13图24易方达科创50ETF期权持仓量PCR.............................................13图25上证50ETF期权波动率......................................................14图26上交所300ETF期权波动率...................................................14图27深交所300ETF期权波动率...................................................14 3/17请务必阅读文末免责条款 专业研究·创造价值4/17请务必阅读文末免责条款图28沪深300股指期权波动率.....................................................14图29中证1000股指期权波动率...................................................14图30上交所500ETF期权波动率...................................................14图31深交所500ETF期权波动率...................................................14图32创业板ETF期权波动率......................................................14图33深证100ETF期权波动率.....................................................15图34上证50股指期权波动率.....................................................15图35科创50ETF期权波动率......................................................15图36易方达科创50ETF期权波动率................................................15表1现货指数价格变化情况.........................................................5表2各期权标的资产价格变化情况...................................................6表3各期权品种主力合约周度涨跌幅.................................................6 专业研究·创造价值1市场回顾1.1股指走势表1现货指数价格变化情况数据来源：IFIND、宝城期货金融研究所图1上证50指数价格走势2,000.002,100.002,200.002,300.002,400.002,500.002,600.002,700.002,800.002,900.002023-01-032023-02-152023-03-232023-05-042023-06-09数据来源：IFind、宝城期货金融研究所图3中证500指数价格走势4,400.004,900.005,400.005,900.006,400.006,900.002023-01-032023-02-152023-03-232023-05-042023-06-09数据来源：IFind、宝城期货金融研究所 本周各股指均震荡上涨。6月下旬以来，股指反弹较为明显，主要驱动是对下半年的政策利好预期，包括对“反内卷”政策将会推动新能源等行业利润修复的乐观预期以及宏观政策对经济需求的托底效果。目前国内通胀较弱，内需的内生性增长动能还有所不足，外需未来易受到关税因素的冲击，下半年仍然需要继续出台稳定经济需求以及市场预期的利好政策，后市等待7月政治局会议的政策配合。总的来说，近期市场风险偏好表现积极乐观，短期内股指震荡偏强运行。简称上证50指数000016.SH2756.773沪深300指数000300.SH4014.807中证500指数000905.SH6027.079中证1000指数000852.SH 6461.102023-07-192023-08-242023-10-092023-11-142023-12-202024-01-26上证50指数2023-07-192023-08-242023-10-092023-11-142023-12-202024-01-26中证500指数 5/17请务必阅读文末免责条款代码收盘价日涨跌幅(%)周涨跌幅(%)-0.010.600.120.820.741.960.852.362024-03-122024-04-192024-05-302024-07-082024-08-132024-09-202024-11-042024-12-102025-01-162025-03-032025-04-092025-05-202025-06-26图2沪深300指数价格走势3,000.003,200.003,400.003,600.003,800.004,000.004,200.004,400.002023-01-032023-02-152023-03-232023-05-042023-06-092023-07-192023-08-242023-10-092023-11-142023-12-202024-01-262024-03-122024-04-192024-05-302024-07-082024-08-132024-09-202024-11-042024-12-102025-01-162025-03-032025-04-092025-05-202025-06-26沪深300指数数据来源：