立陶宛2025年能源政策述评

INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYIEAMembercountries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited StatesThe EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEAThe IEA examines thefull spectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement andmuch more. Throughits work, the IEAadvocates policiesthat will enhance thereliability, affordabilityand sustainability ofenergy in its32Member countries,13Associationcountries andbeyond.This publication and any mapincluded herein are withoutprejudice to the status of orsovereignty over anyterritory, to the delimitationof international frontiers andboundaries and to the nameof any territory, city or area.Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org IEAAssociationcountries:ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine EA. CC BY 4.0.Energy Policy ReviewPage | 3Table of contentsExecutive summary............................................................................................4Energy policy landscape ...................................................................................9Energy security and climate..............................................................................9End-use sectors ..............................................................................................17Electricity.........................................................................................................25Fuels ...............................................................................................................31Recommendations ..........................................................................................39Focus areas.......................................................................................................41Electricity system expansion...........................................................................41Recommendations ..........................................................................................58Transport sector decarbonisation ...................................................................61Recommendations ..........................................................................................72Annexes.............................................................................................................74 EA. CC BY 4.0.Energy Policy ReviewPage | 4Executive summaryEnergy independence is the key principle guiding Lithuania’s energy strategy.Lithuania moved with pace and determination to end its reliance on energy importsfrom the Russian Federation (hereafter, “Russia”). Thanks to strategic infrastructureinvestments, Lithuania is an important regional energy hub, and with the recentlycompletedelectricity grid synchronisation with the Continental EuropeanSynchronous Area (CESA), the Baltic states have successfully disconnected from theRussian-controlled system. While these are important achievements, Lithuania’s finalenergyconsumption remains highly reliant on imported fossil fuels,notably intransport, and a significant share of electricity demand is met by imports. This reportseeks to provide Lithuania with timely advice on how it can progress towards itsenergy goals, including in two focus areas: expanding the electricity system anddecarbonising transport.Lithuania outlines a long-term vision for an electrified energy system and newindustrial development.The National Energy Independence Strategy (NEIS)isformulated around four strategic goals: 1) ensuring energy security, 2) achievingclimate neutrality, 3) transitioning to an electricity economy with a high value-addedenergy industry, and 4) ensuring that energy is available to consumers in a fair andaffordable way. Meeting these goals would require a broad electrification across theeconomy, and Lithuania aims to become a net exporter of electricity by 2030 and ofenergy by 2050. The strategy also includes fostering industrial development relatedto renewables-based hydrogen. This requires a lot of electricity, and in the NEIS mainscenario, electricity demand will increase sixfold by 2050, half of which will be usedfor hydrogen production. However, hydrogen market development has been slowerthan expected, both in Lithuania and in other European markets. While the NEIS is a EA. CC BY 4.0.Energy Policy ReviewPage | 5crucial guide for the energy policy, it should be implemented in well-defined steps,prioritising actions with clear benefits and low risks.Electricity generation has nearly doubled in the last two years, driven bysupportive policy for renewables, but the outlook is uncertain.Lithuania hasintroduced measures to improve permitting and subsidi