橡胶半年报：产量回升矛盾缓解，下半年震荡延续

敬请阅读末页的重要声明策略报告2025年7月4日SH天然橡胶价格走势图SH合成橡胶价格走势图资料来源：同花顺,招商期货相关报告研究员：罗鸣19854498995luoming@cmschina.com.cn投资咨询号：Z0021358 吨。 目录图表目录......................................................................................................................................................................2一、上半年橡走势回顾..............................................................................................................................................4二、25年上半年供给回顾及展望..............................................................................................................................6（一）天然橡胶海外供给概况...................................................................................................................................6（二）天然橡胶国内供给及库存概况........................................................................................................................9（三）合成橡胶供给展望........................................................................................................................................10三、需求回顾及展望................................................................................................................................................13（一）内需展望.......................................................................................................................................................14（二）海外需求.......................................................................................................................................................18四、下半年行情展望................................................................................................................................................20图表目录图1：天然橡胶指数日K走势图（单位：元/吨）......................................................................................................4图2：合成橡胶指数日K走势图（单位：元/吨）......................................................................................................4图3：ANPRC主产国总种植面积（千公顷）............................................................................................................6图4：ANPRC橡胶年度累计产量产量（千吨）........................................................................................................6图5：主产国总种植面积（千公顷）..........................................................................................................................6图6：主产国单产（千克/公顷）................................................................................................................................6图7：ANPRC主产国总种植面积（千公顷）............................................................................................................7图8：泰国橡胶产量（千吨）.....................................................................................................................................7图9：泰国橡胶出口量（千吨）.................................................................................................................................7图10：越南橡胶产量（千吨）....................................................................................................................................8图11：越南橡胶出口量（千吨）................................................................................................................................8图12：印尼橡胶产量（千吨）....................................................................................................................................8图13：印尼橡胶出口量（千吨）................................................................................................................................8图14：科特迪瓦出口中国天然橡胶（千吨）.............................................................................................................9图15：科特迪瓦橡胶出口量（万吨）.........................................................................................................................9图16：中国天然橡胶产量（千吨）............................................................................................................................9图17：中国天然橡胶进口量（千吨）.........................................................................................................................9图18：干胶社会库存（单位：万吨）......................................................................................................................10图19：青岛港口库存（单位：万吨）......................................................................................................................10图20：丁二烯山东市场价（元/吨）.........................................................................................................................11图21：BR9000山东市场价（元/吨）......................................................................................................................11图22：国内顺丁橡胶产量（万吨）..........................................................................................................................11图23：国内顺丁橡胶开工率（%）...........................................................................................................................11 敬请阅读末页的重要声明 商品研究敬请阅读末页的重要声明Page3图24：丁二烯月进出口数量（万吨）...............................................................................................................