中国月度钢材需求追踪器反弹并非由现实推动

Rally not by Reality July 2025 GTJA Futures ResearchZHANG Guangshuo(ChinaFutures AssociationNo.: Z0020198)LI Yafei(China Futures Association No.:Z0021184) Key Demand Indicators: Housing remains a laggard Property Market ◼Long term real living demand:Though urbanization rate in China steadily improved over the years, Chinese household’s leverage rategrowth has significantly slowed since 2020-21. ◼Asset allocation and short-term speculative demand:Given Property’s financial value, housing demand is also related to priceperformance. And such demands behave differently in different geographical locations (or in cities of different tiers). ◼Normally, price performance leads sales change. Recently, data showed signs of price stabilization. And YoY decrease in floorareassold has been narrowed down. Property Market Monthly sales data reader: ◼YoY decrease in new home sales narrowed, while inventory(areas) growth slowed.◼However, existing home sales growth also slowed.(Existing/2nd-hand home sales often seen as leading indicatorfor new home sales) Property Market High-frequency data in major key cities: ◼Transaction volumes in 30 key cities reached last year’s level.◼Improvement in transactions mostly contributed by 1st& 2ndtier cities.◼Listings of 2ndhome continued to slow in recent months. Property Market New starts & Land transactions: ◼Housing new starts continued to fall, but YoY decrease innew starts showed signs of stabilizing/narrowing. ◼However, land transaction volume growth (100 major cities,6-month moving average data) turned weak again. And landarea transacted is often seen as a leading indicator (by about6 month)forhousingnewstarts. Infrastructure General public expenditure (公共财政支出): ◼Spending on transport grew slower than others Govt funds expenditure(政府型基金支出)–mostly by localgovts: ◼Expenditure growth from govt funds improved, as financingbenefitted from issuance of ultra long-term specialgovernment bonds (超长期特别国债) Infrastructure Special Bonds Issuance (专项债发行)–by&forlocal govts: ◼Since 2H22, we noticed that special bonds issuance normallyled infra investment by about 2 months.◼So far this year, the progress of additional Special Bondsissuance was significantly better than last year (May 2025:37% versusMay 2024:29.8%). Manufacturing Sector–Macro Data Reader ◼Policy supports like “equipment upgrades设备更新”and“consumer goods trade-in消费品以旧换新”programshave helped manufactured goods maintain healthy growth inboth outputs and sales. ◼New export orders picked up in June, but the index failed torise above 50 in Q2, as China facing headwind from tariff. ◼Industrials profit growth turned south in May, hitting demandfor restocking. Outputs of Key Manufactured Goods Manufacturing Sector–Automobiles ◼As shown by the close-moving relationship of autoproductions and sales data, producers’ production plan islargely driven by sales order and sales projections. Manufacturing Sector–Household Appliances ◼Other than the major key white goods (AC + fridge/freezer +washing machine), appliances like TV, microwave oven,water dispenser, etc. also contribute a smaller share in steelconsumption. Housing completion led white goods domestic sales by about 1M ◼Production plan also driven by sales order received-> lessspeculative in building inventories. ◼Export accounts for about half of total sales, and it followedclosely on US home sales data Manufacturing Sector–Machinery Manufacturing Sector–Other Indicators Direct Steel Export ◼Export continued to grow despite slowing domestic demand.◼Apart from Trump administration’s tariff policy impacts, “anti-dumping” investigations by China’s key steel buyers (S.Korea and Vietnam) also hit exports to these countries.◼Price attractiveness remains the key competitive advantagefor steel produced in China. Other Micro-level High Frequency Indicators Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting businessin the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (ApprovalNo. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professional investors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region,country, city, or other legal jurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for anyinconvenience this may cause. If you are not a professional investor among the clients of Guotai JunanFutures, please do not read, subscribe to, or receive any related information from the Company. This report does not constitutea recommendation for any specific business activities, nor should it be considered as anyinvestment, legal, accounting, or tax advice. The Company does not consider the recipient of this report to be an automatic client of the Company. Please make investment decisions based on your own risk tolerance andbear the corr