中国每月钢铁需求追踪器_2025年8月

Aug2025 GTJA Futures ResearchZHANG Guangshuo(China Futures Association Reg. No.: Z0020198)LI Yafei(China Futures Association Reg. No.: Z0021184) Key Demand Indicators Property Market ◼Long term real living demand: Though urbanization rate in China steadily improved over the years, Chinese household’s leverage rate growth hassignificantly slowed since 2020-21. ◼Asset allocation and short-term speculative demand: Given Property’s financial value, housing demand is also related to price performance. Andsuch demands behave differently in different geographical locations (or in cities of different tiers). Housing sales price index continued its falling trend for the large & medium sized cities. Property Market Monthly sales data reader: ◼Housing sales growth rate peaked in Apr (YoY change of-2.8%,least negative since Jun-23), but slowed again for both May(-2.9%) and Jun (-3.5%)->signs of weakening salesperformance◼Till Jun, build-up rate of housing inventory have been slowingdown for 12 consecutive months Property Market High-frequency data in major key cities: ◼Summer seasonal impact was less pronounced this year for 30major cities, subdued by weak transaction number in tier-3 cities. Property Market New starts & Land transactions: ◼House new starts is a lagging indicator compared to sales. Andnew starts’ YoY decrease continued to show signs ofstabilizing/narrowing. Rebar apparent demand also improved marginally with the trendshown in housing new starts data. Infrastructure General public expenditure (公共财政支出): ◼Spending growth on transport continued to slow. Govt funds expenditure(政府型基金支出)–mostly by local govts: ◼Total expenditure growth rate from govt funds hit recent-year highsince July 2022. Infrastructure Special Bonds Issuance (专项债发行)–by & for local govts: ◼Pace of issuance progressed well, as Jan-Jun total issuance ofadditional special bonds reached 49% of year-start plannedamount. Manufacturing Sector–Macro Data Reader ◼China June PMI improved MoM due to seasonality, though lowerYoY due to high base in 2024. Among the surveyed industries (21sample industries), 11 of them in expansionary range, showingresilience in manufacturing sector. ◼New export orders picked up in June, as tariff impact absorbed andweakening ◼Industrials profit growth edged up in June though still in negativeterritory. Restocking not happenedin Junedue to upcomingsummer seasonality. Outputs of Key Manufactured Goods Manufacturing Sector–Automobiles ◼Auto sales YoY growth continued to accelerate, partly driven byEV’s outstanding sales performance (1H EV sales +40% YoYversus total auto sales +11% YoY). ◼Within China’s domestic market, EV sales growth driven by: (1)auto companies’ strategic efforts in pushing sales of cheapermodels into markets in lower tiered cities and even non-urban partof the country; (2) demand from “auto trade-in” program/汽车以旧换新政策 Manufacturing Sector–Household Appliances ◼Domestic sales growth of major white goods edged up marginally(with YoY decrease in sales growth narrowed), in accordance withthe improvement in housing completion data. ◼The absolute export number of the major white goods declinedfrom March to June, but June’s export share in total salesrecovered from May’s low (43% to 46%, still below Jan’s 57%) ◼US home sales YoY growth turned positive in June, but significantimprovement in China’s white goods export growth is yet to beseen. Manufacturing Sector–Machinery Manufacturing Sector–Other Indicators Direct Steel Export ◼Share of China’s export in total steel production dropped in June. ◼Recently, 2ndlargest buyer of Chinese steel, S. Korea, proposedananti-dumping duty (ADD) on certain products for 5 years. Japanalso initiated ADD investigation on steel products from both S.Korea & China. ◼US Commerce Dept. widened products range subjected to the50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports Other Micro-level High Frequency Indicators Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting businessin the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (ApprovalNo. [2011]1449).The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professional investors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legal jurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for anyinconvenience this may cause. If you are not a professional investor among the clients of Guotai JunanFutures, please do not read, subscribe to, or receive any related information from the Company. This report does not constitutea recommendation for any specific business activities, nor should it be considered as anyinvestment, legal, accounting, or tax advice. The Company does not consider the recipient of this report to be an automatic client of the Company. Please