美国运通5月信贷数据

2022A0.10%0.00%0.00%(0.10%)0.00%0.00%0.00%0.10%0.10%0.00%0.00%0.10%DQ M/M 2023A2024A2025A0.00%0.10%0.00%0.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%(0.10%)0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%(0.10%)(0.10%)0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.10%0.00%0.10%0.10%0.00%0.00%0.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%Restricted - External AXPEQUAL WEIGHTU.S. Consumer FinanceNEUTRALPrice TargetUSD 249.00Price (13-Jun-25)USD 287.79Potential Upside/Downside-13.5%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchU.S. Consumer FinanceTerry Ma, CFA+1 212 526 7965terry.ma@barclays.comBCI, USJulia Gul+1 212 526 9132julia.gul@barclays.comBCI, USCordelia R Deng+1 212 526 7625cordeliar.deng@barclays.comBCI, US Source: Company Reports, Barclays ResearchCharge-offs:U.S. Consumer Card NCO was 2.1% (vs. BARC 1.99%) and U.S. Small Business CardNCO was 2.4% (vs. BARC 2.60%), implying total US Card of ~2.18% (vs. BARC 2.15%) in May.U.S. Consumer Card NCOs were up 10bps m/m and down 30bps y/y (vs. down 50bps y/y lastmonth). QTD U.S. Consumer Card NCOs are averaging 2.05%. If we were to assume that the2015-2019 average m-o-m change were to hold in June, 2Q25E U.S. Consumer Card NCO wouldbe 2.08%. Consolidated NCO estimates for 2Q25E are 2.37% for the Street and 2.32% for BARC.FIGURE 3. YoY Change in US Card NCOs(1.0%)(0.5%)0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%J-22F-22M-22A-22M-22J-22J-22A-22S-22O-22N-22D-22Y/Y IncreaseSource: Company Reports, Barclays ResearchLoan Growth:Total card loan growth (including small business loans) was 10.5% y/y in May(vs. BARC at +10.5% and compared to +10.9% y/y last month). Management noted thateffectiveJune 1, ~$1.6bn of loans related to its Amazon small business co-brand portfolio will bereclassified as HFS. U.S. Consumer Card loans were up 1.4% m/m (vs. normal 2015-19seasonality of up 2.2%) and up 9.5% y/y (vs. up 9.8% y/y last month). J-23F-23M-23A-23M-23J-23J-23A-23S-23O-23N-23D-23J-24F-24M-24A-24M-24J-24J-24A-24S-24O-24N-24D-24J-25F-25M-25A-25M-25Managed NCOs2 FIGURE 4. Y/Y Loan GrowthSource: Company Reports, Barclays Research Analyst(s) Certification(s):I, Terry Ma, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectsecurities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from accepting paymentor reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such visits.Barclays Research Department produces various types of research including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis,quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of Barclays Research maydifferfrom those contained in other types ofBarclays Research, whether as a result ofdifferingtime horizons, methodologies, or otherwise.In order to access Barclays Statement regarding Research Dissemination Policies and Procedures, please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com/S/RD.htm. In order to access Barclays Research Conflict Management Policy Statement, please refer to: https://publicresearch.barclays.com/S/CM.htm.Primary Stocks (Ticker, Date, Price)American Express(AXP, 13-Jun-2025, USD 287.79), Equal Weight/Neutral, A/CD/CE/D/E/J/K/L/M/NUnless otherwise indicated, prices are sourced from Bloomberg and reflect the closing price in the relevant trading market, which may not be the lastavailable closing price at the time of publication.Disclosure Legend:A:Barclays Bank PLC and/or anaffiliatehas been lead manager or co-lead manager of a publicly disclosedofferof securities of the issuer in theprevious 12 months.B:An employee or non-executive director of Barclays PLC is a di