早晨洞察：2025年7月10日

Morning Insight:July 10, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Propylene:Propylene is expected to be listed on July 22. As an upstreamolefin monomer, it connects both upstream and downstream sectors of theindustry chain—it links to LPG on the upstream side and polypropylene onthe downstream, playing an important role in industrial hedging. The price fluctuations of propylene can be divided into several phases.From 2015 to 2019, the primary production methods for propylene wererefinery gas separation and ethylene cracking, with PDH (propanedehydrogenation) accounting for a relatively smallshare. During thisperiod, propylene prices were highly correlated with crude oil.Since 2019, with the large-scale commissioning of PDH capacity, thecorrelation between propylene and crude oil prices has declined.Currently, PDH has become the main external supply source in thepropylene trade market. Meanwhile, the downstream polypropylene powdersegment has experienced rapid overcapacity in recent years, leading tolower average operating rates and more responsive adjustments. As aresult, recent propylene price volatility has gradually narrowed.At present, propylene prices primarily oscillate within a wide range,fluctuating between upstream cost pressure and downstream demand. Government Bond Futures:The market continues to fluctuate within anarrow range, with no clear drivers for an upward or downward breakout.Recently, government bond futures have maintained a choppy trend, withvolatility showing signs of contraction. Positioning data by institution type from the end of last week shows that hedge funds, wealth managementsubsidiaries, and foreign investors all increased their net longpositions by over 10% on a weekly basis, indirectly suggesting that manyinvestors see significant resistance around the 3500 level in theShanghai Composite Index. Although monetary conditions remain loose, there is currently a lack ofcatalysts to drive a decisive move in either direction in the bondmarket. The market may look to the upcoming end-of-month Politburomeeting as the next key signal. Until then, trading in interest ratebonds and government bond futures is likely to remain short-term andtactical. In the spot bond market, whether it’s the focus on 20-year bonds or lessactively traded notes, investor behavior indicates that interest ratebond trading is already "overcrowded," with little room left for freshnarratives or drivers. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. The Macao Special Administrative Region (SAR) government said onWednesday that China's Ministry of Finance (MOF) will issue sovereignbonds totaling 6 billion yuan (about 836.3 million U.S. dollars) in Macaoon July 16. A joint announcement made by the MOF and the Macao SAR government notedthat the continued issuance of renminbi-denominated sovereign bonds inMacao demonstrates the central government's support for the SAR government in expediting the cultivation of the bond market and other newfinancial businesses, thereby advancing the appropriate diversificationof the economy. With a steadily increasing issuance size, the fourth consecutive year ofthe sovereign bond issuance is conducive to further optimizing a regularissuance mechanism, providing investors with a secure and stableinvestment option, the announcement said. The Macao SAR government said the sustained issuance of sovereign bondsis believed to attract international investors to participate in Macao'sbond market, foster the growth of the offshore renminbi market in Macao,and further deepen financial cooperation between the Chinese mainland andMacao. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China has remained the world's largest manufacturing country for 15consecutive years, Zheng Shanjie, head of the National Development andReform Commission, said on Wednesday. Zheng made the remarks at a press conference, where he presentedachievements in social and economic development during the 14th Five-YearPlan period (2021-2025) and responded to questions from the media. Since 2021, the country's manufacturing industry has seen its added valueincrease by over 30 trillion yuan (about 4.2 trillion U.S. dollars) everyyear, with the output of more than 220 key industrial products leadingthe world, the official said. (Source: Xinhua) 3. China's producer price index (PPI), which measures costs for goods atthe factory gate, went down 3.6 percent year on year in June, theNational Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. On a month-on-month basis, the PPI dropped 0.4 percent in June, accordingto the NBS data. In the first half of 2025, the PPI dropped by 2.8 percent year on year,the data showed. NBS statistician Dong Lijuan attributed the decline in the PPI to