建筑装饰行业2025年中期策略：守静生明，砺质淬新

2025年中期策略❖上半年基建投资延续放缓，稳增长政策发力亦可期待。建实务工作量有望迎来拐点。部分基建子版块景气依旧，把握局部领域投资机遇。基建项目启动亦有望拉动相关基建投资需求。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！投资评级:看好(维持)最近12月市场表现分析师毕春晖SAC证书编号：S0160522070001bich@ctsec.com分析师张益敏SAC证书编号：S0160522070002zhangym02@ctsec.com分析师刘斐然SAC证书编号：S0160522120003liufr@ctsec.com分析师欧阳之光SAC证书编号：S0160524070001oyzg@ctsec.com相关报告1.《5月基建增速有所放缓，静待资金到位改善》2025-06-162.《4月基建增速环比放缓，资金改善仍需等待》2025-05-253.《金属价格上涨利好哪些建筑企业》2025-05-18-15%-7%1%9%17%25%建筑装饰沪深300上证指数 核心观点❖投资建议：部中脱颖而出。❖风险提示： 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准1基建资金仍待改善，头部企业聚焦高质量发展...................................................................................41.1基建资金到位偏弱，建筑景气度相对承压......................................................................................41.2头部企业聚焦高质量发展，关注顺周期龙头及高股息标的..........................................................52细分板块景气提升，关注煤化工、核电、西南基建等方向.............................................................112.1新疆煤化工投资稳步推进，Q3有望进入集中招标阶段..............................................................112.2技术突破+核准推进，核电迎来快速发展期..................................................................................142.3重大项目稳步推进，把握西南腹地建设机遇................................................................................163传统主业增长乏力，并购重组开辟新赛道.........................................................................................184风险提示.................................................................................................................................................21图1. 2025M1-5全国税收收入7.92万亿元同降1.6%.................................................................................4图2. 2025M1-5地方政府土地出让收入同降11.9%....................................................................................4图3. 2025年M1-5全国一般公共预算支出同增4.2%................................................................................4图4.农林水事、交通运输公共财政支出同比下滑.....................................................................................4图5.专项债发行节奏同比有所加速（亿元）.............................................................................................5图6.专项债投向广义基建资金比例约39.6%（1H2025）........................................................................5图7.基建投资增速仍有承压.........................................................................................................................5图8.电力水利投资高位回落拖累广义基建投资增速.................................................................................5图9. 1Q2025建筑上市公司营收同降6.3%..................................................................................................6图10. 1Q2025建筑上市公司归母净利润同降8.7%....................................................................................6图11.建筑上市公司毛利率有一定承压.......................................................................................................6图12.建筑上市公司经营性现金流流入放缓...............................................................................................6图13.七大央企订单市占率持续提升...........................................................................................................6图14.央国企维持较高分红率水平...............................................................................................................7图15.当前处于筹划及开工前期的项目占比约91%................................................................................11图16.新疆煤化工项目以煤制油及煤制气为主.........................................................................................11图17.易普力2023年营收规模实现翻倍式增长.......................................................................................13图18.易普力重大工程类订单占比整体较高.............................................................................................13内容目录图表目录 2 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准3图19. 2024年雪峰科技营收61.01亿元同降13.1%..................................................................................14图20.玉象胡杨公司是新疆最大的硝酸铵生产基地.................................................................................14图21. 2019年以来核电站核准与在建数量快速增加.................................................................................14图22.核电在建装机数量持续增加.............................................................................................................14图23.核电投资同比高增.............................................................................................................................15图24.核电发电量持续正增长.....................................................................................................................15图25.钍基熔盐实验堆综合利用前景.........................................................................................................15图26.合肥BEST建设现场........................................................................................................................15图27. 2023公司承建首座球床模块式高温气冷堆核电站示范工程投入商运.........................................16图28.公司核电气体分离装置.....................................................................................................................16图29.上半年西南省份固定资产投资增速偏缓.........................................................................................18图30.西南省份专项债发行节奏同比加快（亿元）.................................................................................18图31.建筑行业新签订单同比承压.......................