乌兹别克斯坦与公私伙伴关系：国家经验教训，乌兹别克斯坦共和国（英）

Uzbekistan and Public -Private Partnerships:Country Lessons Lawrence Dwight SIP/2025/087 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on May 30, 2025. This paper is alsopublished separately as IMF Country Report No 25/144. 2025JUN IMFSelected IssuesPaper Middle East and Central Asia Department Uzbekistan and Public-Private Partnerships: Country Lessons,Republic of UzbekistanPrepared byLawrence Dwight* Authorized for distribution by Yasser AbdihJune 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on May 30, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/144. ABSTRACT:Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) utilize private sector expertise, risk sharing, management,and financing to improve public investment. However, these benefits also carry risks. Project level risks includepoor selection, optimism bias, off-budget financing, and contract renegotiation. Countries can manage theserisks by integrating PPPs into the public investment plan, testing assumptions via scenario analysis, andevaluating risks during the selection process. Macroeconomic risks can arise if PPPs perform poorly oraccumulate too rapidly. These risks can be addressed by implementing an annual cap on new projects or a capon the PPP stock. Having a robust system to monitor PPPs improves implementation and guards losses fromcontingent liabilities. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Dwight, Lawrence. 2025.“Republic of Uzbekistan and Public-PrivatePartnerships: Country Lessons.” IMFSelected Issues Paper (SIP/2025/087), International Monetary Fund.Washington, DC. Uzbekistan and Public–PrivatePartnerships: Country Lessons Republic of Uzbekistan Prepared byLawrence Dwight1 REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByMiddle East and CentralAsia Department Prepared ByLawrence Dwight UZBEKISTAN AND PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS: COUNTRY LESSONS_______2 A. Introduction_________________________________________________________________________2B.The Nature of Public-Private Partnerships____________________________________________2C.Uzbekistan’s Experience with PPPs___________________________________________________5D. Risks from PPPs______________________________________________________________________8E. Managing Risks____________________________________________________________________15 FIGURES 1. Structure of Public Investment vs PPPs_______________________________________________32. Selected Countries: Stock of PPPs in 2019____________________________________________53. Historical and Planned PPPs, 2019-2030_____________________________________________64. Shares of PPPs by Sector_____________________________________________________________75. Planned Flow of PPPs by Sector and Year of Signing, 2019-2030_____________________76. Potential Risk Factors in PPPs________________________________________________________97. Main Causes of PPP Renegotiation_________________________________________________14 TABLES 1. Common Fiscal Costs and Fiscal Risks from PPPs____________________________________52. Value and Share of PPP Projects, December 2024____________________________________6 ANNEX I. Legal and Institutional Frameworkfor Pubilic-Private Partnerships________________19 References____________________________________________________________________________21 UZBEKISTAN AND PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS:COUNTRY LESSONS Public-PrivatePartnerships(PPPs)cantake advantage ofprivate sector expertise, better risk sharing,improvedmanagement efficiency, andprivatefinancingtoimprovepublic investment projects.However,international experienceshows that these benefits are accompanied by risks atboththeprojectandmacroeconomiclevels.At the project level,riskscanincludepoor project selection,optimism bias,off-budget financing,andrenegotiation.Practices thatmanagetheserisksincludeintegrating PPP projects intothepublic investment management system,conductingscenario analysisto stress key assumptions,evaluatingcosts and risks of PPPprojects during the selection process,andcreating a framework thatminimizesrenegotiation of PPP contracts.At themacroeconomiclevel,explicit and implicit guarantees can createrisks ifPPP projectsperform poorly oraccumulate toorapidly.One way countries canavoid and mitigatemacroeconomic risksisbyimplementinganannualcap onnewPPPprojectsand/ora cap on the stock ofPPPprojects.Having in placea robustsystem tomonitor PPPsalsohelpsensuretheireffectiveimplementationand guard against the realization ofcontingent liabilities. A.Introduction 1.Uzbekistan has only recently begun to use Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) to financeand operate investment projects, but they have grown rapidly.The value of signed contractsrea