汽车行业洞察——2025年夏季

AutomotiveIndustry Industry Insights SUMMER 2025 Learn more Industry Highlights Overview Globally, 2024 marked a year of slow growth for the automotive industry, as volumes only grew 1.7% to 88.1 million units. 2025 is expected to be anotheryear of sluggish growth, with only a 1.6% forecasted increase in sales volumes. Sales are expected to be negatively impacted by weaker customer demand,mixed economic conditions and political risk marked by an uncertain tariff environment.1 In 2024, U.S. auto sales grew 1.9% year over year (YoY), with strong sales in the last three months of the year.2For 2025, sales are forecast to drop to 15.4million units as demand softens and tariff impacts increase the cost of vehicles.3Electric vehicles (EVs) continue to gain market share in the U.S. but grewonly 10% in 2024 compared to 40% in 2023. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) now account for 10% of new carsales.4 Chinese auto sales rose to 31.4 million units in 2024, up 4.6% from 2023.5Sales were especially strong in the back half of 2024 and the start of 2025 ascertain government subsidy programs and sales tax exemptions buoyed consumer demand.6The EV market in China continues to accelerate. Helped by therecent growth of PHEV sales, nearly half of all new cars sold in China in 2024 were electric.7 In Europe, vehicle sales in 2024 increased 0.9% compared to 2023.8Growth slowed due to lower demand, political uncertainty, and the ending of certain EVsubsidies in major European markets.1Muted sales results continued into 2025, as sales for the first quarter are down 0.4% YoY.9Although BEVs have lostsome market share, an increase in hybrid sales has driven the market share of all EVs over 50% for 2024.8 M&A activity in the automotive sector continued its decline through the end of 2024 and into 202510due to uncertain economic and geopolitical dynamics.11Seventy-seven transactions closed in the first quarter of 2025, down 46% from the first quarter of 2024, representing the lowest quarterly total in over 10years.10 Public company equity performance in selected automotive indexes was mixed through April 2025, with the Automotive Mobility, Automotive AftermarketParts and Repair and Automotive Suppliers indices in positive territory. The Automotive Dealers, Automotive Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), andEV indices ended the period in the negative.10 Executive Summary Tariff Impacts: U.S. Vehicle Prices Estimated toIncrease by $2K to $10K3,18 Global Light Vehicle Sales GrowthSlowed in 2024 and into 20251 Global Auto Sales Expected to GrowModestly in 2025, Hampered by Tariffs1 Automotive M&A Activity Remains Weak in202510 Tariff Impacts: U.S. Vehicle Sales EstimatesLowered by 850K for 20253 Global Auto Sales Trends Global Vehicle Sales Global vehicle sales slowed in 2024 after a strong rebound in 2023. Sales grew 1.7% to 88.1 million, but volumes are still below pre-COVID-19 levels. The Chinese marketgrew over 4% as incentives and tax exemptions drove stronger sales in the second half of the year. The U.S. market grew modestly at 2%, while Europe had the lowestgrowth among the top three auto markets in 2024, growing at only 1%.1 EV adoption continues to differ by region. In 2024, over 20% of new cars sold globally were BEVs or PHEVs.1China continues to dominate the space, with EV sales makingup nearly half of all new cars.7In Europe, over 22% of new cars are BEVs or PHEVs.9The U.S. lags the other two major markets at only 10% electric market share.4For 2025,it is expected that one in four cars sold globally will be an EV.1 Toyota remained the global top-selling brand in 2024, with a 10.7% market share, the same as 2023. Volkswagen remained in second place. BYD jumped into third place in2024, up from ninth in 2023. BYD had the strongest sales growth of the top brands, increasing an astounding 42% in 2024.12 Globally, vehicle sales are projected to increase just 1.6% in 2025 to 89.5 million units. Sales are expected to be hampered by global political and economic uncertainty,especially with regard to tariffs. Demand is expected to be softer in the U.S. and Europe even with the positive impacts of lower interest rates and new model activity.1,6 2024 Global Bestselling Brands Global Tariff Impacts Global Tariff Timeline–Key Dates Impacting the Automotive Industry Global Tariff Impacts Impact of Tariffs on the U.S. Automotive Industry The introduction of new tariffs into the automotive industry is expected to have a significant impact on both OEMs and suppliers in the U.S. The increased costs associatedwith these tariffs is expected to lead to higher prices for consumers among an already uncertain economic backdrop and higher inflation. This could affect U.S. OEMs, aslower demand and higher input prices will lead to shrinking profit margins and fewer cash flows for other operating, investing, or financing activities.19Large capitalinvestments are expected to di