2025年7月4日市场回顾与债券市场更新

July 4, 2025 MarketReview Governmentbond prices closed mixed in trading on Thursday(03/07).IndonesiaCompositeBondIndexincreasedby0.06%to414.93.Yieldof5-year(FR0104)and10-year(FR0103)IGBbenchmarkgained2.1bpsandlost1.7bpsto6.26%and 6.59%.Meanwhile,yield of 15-year(FR0106)and 20-year(FR0107)IGB benchmark dropped 2.2 bps and 0.3 bps to 6.92%and 6.99%,respectively. Thejobs report in June showed the US labor market remained moreresilientthananticipated.TheUSeconomyadded147,000nonfarmpayrollsinJune,more than the 106,000 expected by economists.The unemployment rateunexpectedlyfell to 4.1%.Economists had expected the unemployment rate tomovehigher to 4.3%.In May,the US economy added 144,000 jobs while theunemploymentheld flat at 4.2%.Those figures were revised higher on Fridayfromapreviouslyreported139,000jobadditionsinMay.AveragehourlyearningsinJune rose 0.2%over last month and 3.7%over the prior year.Economistsexpectedwages to rise 0.3%over last month and 3.8%over the prior year.Meanwhile,labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%from 62.4%the monthprior.Government employment rose by 73,000 workers in June,accounting forroughlyhalfofthemonth'sgains.Followingthereport,increasingbetsonaJulyinterestrate cutfromtheFederal Reservereversed.Markets are now pricinginjusta5%chancethecentralbanklowersratesatitsJulymeeting,downfroma24%chanceseena dayprior,pertheCMEFedWatchTool.Investors alsogrewmoreskepticalofaSeptembermovefromtheFed,withmarketsnowpricingina78%chancetheFedcutsbytheendofitsSeptembermeeting,downfroma94%chanceseenadayprior.Thereleasecomesassignsofcoolinginthejobmarkethavecontinued to emerge in recent data.On Wednesday,ADP data showedprivateemployers unexpectedly cut 33,000 jobs in June.This marked the firstmonthofjoblossesintheprivatesectorsinceMarch2023.Meanwhile,continuingfilingsfor unemployment benefits recently hit their highest level in nearly fouryears.Butthedatahasyettoindicateasignificant,broad-basedslowdowninthelabormarket. Indonesia'smanufacturing activity plunged in June 2025,approachingthelevel when Indonesia was hit by the Covid-19 pandemic.PurchasingManagers'Index(PMI)data released by S&P Global showed that Indonesia'smanufacturingPMI was at 46.9 in June 2025 or contracted.This was the thirdconsecutivemonth that the PMI has contracted.Previously,the PMI hadcontractedby46.7inApril,then47.4inMayandcontinuedinJune.TheJunePMIindexwasalsothelowestsinceApril2025(46.7).LookingbackbeforeApril2025,theManufacturingPMIlevelinJunethisyearwasthesecondlowestsinceAugust2021orfouryearsagowhenIndonesiawashitbytheDeltavariantoftheCovid-19wave.S&P Global explained that the Manufacturing PMI collapsed due to asharpdeclineinneworders.ThisdeclinewasthelowestsinceAugust2021.Thisdeclinein orders was the main factor in the contraction in output,purchasingactivity,and employment levels.Another piece of bad news was the decline inemploymentinJune.AccordingtoS&P,themainfactorbehindtheJuneweaknesswastheacceleratingdeclineindemandforIndonesiangoods.Newordersfellforthethirdstraightmonth,atthestrongestcontractionratesinceAugust2021.Thepanelists’report said that market activity appeared sluggish,as clients werereluctanttoplaceneworders.Thedataalsoshowedthatthedeclineinsaleswasmainlyduetodomesticdemand.Incontrast,export businesswasflat aftertwoconsecutivemonthsofcontraction.Inresponsetotheweakening,factoryoutputinIndonesia fell again in June.This decline was quite sharp,although slightlybetterthanMay. CorporateNews PEFINDOhas assigned its idAAA rating to PT Adira Dinamika MultiFinanceTbk(AdiraFinance).Outlookforthecorporatecreditratingisstable.TheratingismainlydrivenbyverystronglikelihoodofsupportfromMUFGBank,Ltd(MUFGBank)asitsultimateparent.AdiraFinance'sstandalonecreditprofilereflectsits very strong market position,well-diversified business portfolio,andverystrongcapitalizationprofile,butitisconstrainedbychallengesinimprovingitsoperatingefficiency.TheratingmaybelowereditthesupportfromMUFGBankdeclinessignificantly,resultingfromAdiraFinance'sweakeningbusinessposition,orifitsassetqualityandprofitabilityprofilesshowsignificantdeterioration.