2025年6月30日市场回顾与债券市场更新

June 30, 2025 MarketReview Governmentbond prices strengthen further in trading on Thursday(26/06).IndonesiaCompositeBondIndexincreasedby0.13%to413.71.Yieldof5-year(FR0104)and10-year(FR0103)IGBbenchmarkdropped0.1 bps and3.2bpsto6.29%and6.62%.Meanwhile,yieldof15-year(FR0106)and20-year(FR0107)IGB benchmark declined 1.7 bps and 1.3 bps to 6.95%and 6.99%,respectively. Thepersonal consumption expenditures price index(PCE)—the Fed'sprimaryinflationreading—rose0.1%inMay,puttingtheannualinflationrateat 2.3%.Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking forrespectivelevelsof0.1%and2.3%.Excludingfoodandenergy,corePCEpostedrespectivereadings of 0.2%and 2.7%,compared with estimatesfor 0.1%and2.6%.Fedpolicymakersconsidercoretobeabettermeasureoflong-termtrendsbecauseof historic volatility in the two categories.The annual rate was 0.1percentagepoint ahead of theAprilreading.The Fed targets inflation at 2%,alevelwhere it has not been sinceearly 2021.Along with the inflation numbers,consumerspendingandincomeshowedfurthersignsofweakening.Spendingfell0.1%for the month,compared with the estimate for an increase of 0.1%.Personalincomedeclined0.4%,againsttheforecastforagainof0.3%.Marketshadlittlereactiontothedata,withstockmarketfuturesindicatingapositiveopenonWall Street while Treasury yields also rose.The report comes with the Fedcontemplatingitsnextmoveoninterestrates.ThereporthelpskeephopesaliveforaJulyratecut,thoughsomestillseesuchtalkaspremature.MarketslargelyexpectthecentralbanktoremainonholdatitslateJulymeeting.However,afewofficialsoflatehavebeenadvocatingacutaslongasinflationdatashowsmutedpressuresfrom the tariffs President Donald Trump has instituted since takingofficeinJanuary.TrumphasbeenpushingtheFedtoease,insistingthatinflationislowandthecentralbankcanalwaysswitchgearsifpricesstartmovinghigheragain.TheFedChairmanJeromePowell,though,hasadvocatedamorecautiousapproach,despite increasingly aggressive pressure from the president.InflationpressuresgenerallyweremutedinMay. Thegovernment faces several challenges in collecting tax revenues in2025,ranging from commodity price fluctuations to restitution thatoccurredat the beginning of the year.Commodity prices were veryhigh in2022and2023.Somecompaniesoverpaidwhentheyusedthesamecommoditypricelevel when paying taxes in 2024 or even 2025.As of May 31,2025,therealizationoftaxrevenueswasIDR683.3trillion.Taxrevenueshaveonlyreached31.2%ofthetaxrevenuetargetinthe2025StateBudgetofIDR2,189.3trillion.Whencomparedtothesameperiodthepreviousyear,therewasacontractionof10.14%.These companies will adjust their tax payments to commodity priceconditions.Tax revenue performance is also challenging because the 2025 taxrevenuetarget is determined with the assumption of a Value Added Tax(VAT)rateof12%.Infact,thispolicywasnotimplementedin2025.Meanwhile,staterevenuesalsohavethepotentialtodecreasebecauseBUMNdividendsthatwerepreviouslynon-tax state revenues(PNBP)have now shifted to Danantara.Toanticipatethis,thegovernmentcontinuestotakeanumberofstepstobooststaterevenues.The Ministerof Financesaidthatthe governmenthasformed ateamtaskedwith absorbing a number of potential revenues originating from lawenforcement,leaks,andtaxpayer compliance.The digital economy also has thepotentialtobecomeasourceofstaterevenue. CorporateNews PTMandiriTunasFinanceorMTF(TUFI)issuedShelfRegistrationBondsVIIPhaseIYear2025withaprincipalamountofIDR775.27billion.Thesebondswereissuedinthreeseries.SeriesAhasaprincipalamountofIDR313.5billion,withafixedcouponrateof6.15%peryear,andatenorof370daysfromtheissuancedate.ThenSeriesBhasaprincipalamountofIDR236billion,withafixedcoupon rate of 6.50%per year,and a bond term of 3 years from theissuancedate.The last one is Series C has a principal amount of IDR225.76billion,with a fixedcoupon rate of 6.70%peryear,andatenor of 5 years.Allfundsobtained from the public offering of the bonds—after deducting issuancecosts—are planned to be used for working capital for motor vehicle financing.Meanwhile,inthecontextofissuingthesebonds,thecompanyhasobtainedbondratingresultsfromPefindowithanidAAAortripleArating.