德银-AI搜索影响

TMTInternet TakeawaysFromourExpertCallonAI-DrivenSearchImpact BenjaminBlack Yesterday,wehadadiscussionwithBenLegg,CEOofDigitalPeopleInternationalwhichtrackshis~250clients,largelycomprisedoflargeandmid-sizeadvertiserswithageographicconcentrationintheU.S.(60%),U.K.(25%),andCanada(15%),withnearly$1bnindigitaladspendacrosseverymajoradplatformwiththelargestvertical being e-commerce(approximately 35%of total spend).The maintakeawaysfromourconversationwhichwerefocusedontheAI-drivensearchimplications,Amazon'sDSPgrowth,andtheimpactfromTemuandShein'sadspendpullbackinclude:1)Digitaladspendwasstrongforhisclientsin2Qat+18%y/y,2)GoogleSearchgrowthisaboveexpectationsasadditionalusecasesandincreaseddatasources,suchasfromCRMintegrations,improvetargeting,3)PINSisscalingupusageofAmazon'sDSPasCTRnarrowsthegapcomparedtonativeadsonthePINSplatform,and4)reductioninspendfromTemuandSheinonAmazonlargelyoffsetduetodeepauctiondynamics,whichwebelievelikelyappliestoMeta'sauctionaswell.Inthisreport,wedetailourdiscussionmorebroadlyanddiscussrecentadspendtrendsforGOOG,PINS,andAMZN. ResearchAnalyst+1-212-250-9218 LeeHorowitzResearchAnalyst+1-212-250-4403 JeffSeinerResearchAssociate+1-212-250-8153 MatthewSpindResearchAssociate+1-212-250-9481 DigitaladspendforMr.Legg'sclientscameinat+18%y/yinthe2Q,andexitedthequarterata22%-23%run-rate,asadvertisersbegantorampupspendinmid-Mayposttheinitialtariffdrivenmacroconcerns.Hebelievesthattariffsremainafactorinsizingadbudgets,howeverhe'sexpectingAIandadtechinnovationtooffsetanyimpact,andcurrentlyforecastsadspendforhisclientstogrow24%y/yinthe2H25.Lookingspecificallyatthee-commerceverticalonMeta,henotedthatspendgrowthdroppedfrom20%y/yinMarchdownto10%y/yinApril,andimprovedfromtherewith15%/20%y/yinMay/June,respectively.ThereductioninChina-basedadspendfromTemuandSheinhascreatedopportunityforotherretailers,andthatslackinspendhasbeenoffsetbythedeepauctiondynamicsonAmazon given thatmany categoriesremain highlycompetitive,with 50-100biddersperkeyword.WeexpectsimilardynamicsarelikelyoccurringonMeta,wheredenseauctiondynamicswithmanybiddershelpingtofillthevoidleftbyTemuandShein. GoogleSearchandYouTubegrowthremainsStrong WhileGoogleSearchcouldbecedingsomemarketsharetoChatGPTandotherAISearchengines,adspendforhisclientsisoutperforminginitialforecasts,with2Qseeing+18%y/ygrowth(upfrom+17%in1Q)andheprojects+19%/+19/22%in3Q/4Q/1Q26.ThisgrowthisattributedtoGoogle'simprovementsinpersonalization 1July2025InternetUSInternet throughenhancedsearchhistoryutilizationandCRMdataintegration,providingimprovedtargetingcapabilities.Additionally,theintegrationofGeminiacrossGoogleservices(Gmail,Chrome,Ads)iscreatingatailwindtoSearchrevenuewithincreased Search use cases,such as using Gmail content to provide travelrecommendations.HenotedthatAIOverviewsareresultingindecliningorganictrafficby5%-10%,howeveritisdrivingbrandstoincreasepaidsearchinvestmentto"buyback"lostfreetraffic. Mr.LeggnotedthatGoogleSearchmarketsharehasdroppedbelow90%,andhebelievesthatGoogleshouldmaintain~75%ofthesearchmarketshareoverthelong-term,leveragingitsfull-stackintegrationtoexpandtheusecasesoftheSearchproduct,whichheexpectswillmorethanoffsetthelostmarketshare.Forexample,thebusinessmodelforcertainverticalssuchastravelbookingsmayevolveto%ofGMVfromaCPCmodelifGoogleiseventuallyabletobooktheitineraryforthecustomerratherthanhandingofftoamerchant.Alternatively,theCPCpricemayincreaseasGoogleAIsearchaddsadditionalvaluebybringingcustomerstotheadvertiserfurtherdownthepurchasingchannel. GenAItoolsarealsoenablinglong-tailadvertiserstocreatescalablevideocreativewith an uptick in features,such as QR Codes shifting the format to moreperformance-orientedobjectivesfrombrand,whichcurrentlyremainssoft.ThisshiftisparticularlyevidentonYouTube,whereperformance-basedadvertisingisbecomingincreasinglydominant,andarenowexpectedtoaccountfor61%ofhisclient’sYouTubeadspendin2Q,upfrom34%2yearsago.Thegrowingprevalenceofperformance-basedadsutilizingQRcodes,coupledwiththereducedfrictionvideoadcreationfacilitatedbyGenAI,isenablingSMBadvertiserstoeffectivelyadoptthisformat. PinterestscalingupAmazonDSPinventory AdspendonPinterestforMr.Legg'sclientsisup19%y/yinthe2Q,andisincreasinglybeingfunneledthroughAmazon'sDSP,nowreaching8.1%oftheirspendonPinterestinthe2Q,upfrom3.1%in2Q24.Thisisdrivenbythenarrowinggapinclick-throughrates(CTR)betweenAmazonDSPadsandnativePinterestads.CTRsonAmazonDSPadsarenow3.9%,upfrom2.3%atlaunchandcomparestothe4.2%foradsnativetothePINSplatformatthattime.Mr.Leggestimatesthatasadsreach80%oftheCTRviaAmazonDSPastheyareabletoachievenatively,therespectiveplatformwillbegintorampupinventorythroughthatchannel.ForPinterest,hebelievesthiswasachievedin4Q24,whichhasbeendrivingtheincreasedscaleofAmazonDSPasapartner.