2025年中期全球展望

Getting a grip on uncertainty BlackRockInvestmentInstitute 2025 Midyear Global Outlook Introduction Twice a year, BlackRock’s senior portfolio managers and investment executives gather for two days to debate the outlook for theglobaleconomy and markets–and its implications for portfolios. Since the previous Forum in November, we have met even more frequently totake stock of this year’s policy shifts driving financial market volatility–and elevated uncertainty. The Global Outlook is the culminationof that debate and discussion at our latest Forum and informs our macro framing: We have long argued this is a world being shaped bysupply and undergoing a transformation driven by mega forces, or structural changes driving returns now and in the future. Weevolvethat by describing how we see the world losing long-term macro anchors that have underpinned investment processes for decades. Our three themes spell out the investment implications of this.Investing for the here and nowis about how we can have more certaintyabout the near term than long term–and why we stay pro-risk.Taking risk with no macro anchorhighlights how macro risk needs to bemanaged in this environment–yet it is one of ample alpha opportunities. Andfinding anchors in mega forceshighlights the importantrole of mega forces, such as artificial intelligence, in shaping growth trajectories and serving as a durable return driver. Authors Wei LiGlobal ChiefInvestment Strategist—BlackRock InvestmentInstitute Rick RiederHead ofFundamental FixedIncome–BlackRock JeanBoivinHead—BlackRockInvestment Institute Ed FishwickHead of Risk andQuantitative Analysis–BlackRock Raffaele SaviGlobal Head ofSystematic–BlackRock Glenn PurvesGlobal Head of Macro—BlackRock InvestmentInstitute Executive sponsors Philipp HildebrandVice Chairman–BlackRock Rob KapitoPresident–BlackRock Rich KushelHead–BlackRockPortfolioManagementGroup Sharp U.S. policy shifts and elevated uncertainty make it seem the world isupended. But this is an evolution of the new regime of transformation we havebeen in for a few years. What matters: getting a grip on uncertainty by identifyingits core features. Long-term macro anchors are weaker given the many differentpotential outcomes. Yet macro fundamentals haven’t changed much for now:Immutable economic laws prevent policy from revamping the world overnight.That keeps us positive on risk assets and U.S. stocks. Mega forces, like artificialintelligence, are the new long-term anchor for achieving durable returns. Contents IntroductionSummary23 Investment environmentLosing long-term macroanchorsWorld can’t change quickly4-545 Nobody knows where the macro environment isultimately headed. But understanding thesepolicy limits has allowed us to be nimble andbuild the conviction to dial risk back up just oneweek after the April 2 tariff announcements. Itmakes us more comfortable staying pro-risk on atactical horizon. We have more certainty about thenear-term macro outlook than the long term–anunusual situation for investors. So we put greaterweight on tactical views. That’s why our firsttheme isinvesting in the here and now. ThatfavorsU.S. equities and themes such as artificialintelligence. We stand ready to pivot dependingon the ultimate impact ofU.S. policy on theeconomy. We don’t think Europe can outperformyet without structural changes–but some of thesteps Europe has taken give us optimism. With the many twists and turns over the first halfof this year, policy uncertainty is obviouslyelevated. We had expected policy this year toswitch from a stabilizing force for financialmarkets to a destabilizing force. That has playedout. Yet at this midyear point, risk asset returnsare also little changed so far, even with all theheadline-grabbing noise. ThemesInvesting in the here and nowTaking risk with no macroanchorFinding anchors in mega forces6-8678 What matters now for investors is getting a gripon this environment’s defining features. We havelong argued that we entered a new macro regimemarked by profound transformations, shaped bymega forces that could lead to many verydifferent potential outcomes over time–for thetrajectory and makeup of the global economy,inflation, government debt and deficits or globaltrade. 2025 has put this new regime into sharperrelief, with serious discussion about the potentialfor fundamental changes to the structure ofglobal markets–including the haven role of U.S.Treasuries or the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. Mega forcesDeepening fragmentationTaking stock of AI’s phases9-10910 Focus U.S. assets still coreU.S. dollar’s dominant roleTapping private capitalTransformation = infrastructure11-1411121314 Taking risk with no macro anchoris our secondtheme. We believe this environment oftransformation is better than the prior decade forachieving above-benchmark returns, or alpha. Yetthe volatile macro environment injects risk intoportfolios that needs to be actively managed.Even with the loss of long-term macr