芝加哥市中心写字楼市场报告：2025年第一季度

Q1 2025 Chicago CBD office market trends Total leasing activity in Q12025 Private capital share of salevolume since Q1 2023 Positive Trophy/A+ absorptionsince the pandemic Chicago CBD office leasing activity reached aQ1 total of 2 msf for the first time since 2022andis up 7.8%YoY from Q1 2024.Whileactivityis positively trending,trailing four-quarter leasing activity remained well belowpre-pandemicaverages,down 34.3%to 8.5msf. Trophy/A+ properties in the Chicago CBD havedemonstrated impressive resilience, with 6.6msfof positiveabsorptionsince 2020.Furthermore,the class has boasted nineconsecutive years of positive absorption with astrong start to 2025. However, the amount ofpositiveabsorption has contracted by anaverage of 11.6% during the last three yearsdue to a shrinking availability. Q1 2025sales volume saw a 50%increasecompared to Q1 2024 levels, and a remarkable154%growth in the last four quarters(Q22024 - present) compared to the previous four(Q3 2024 - Q1 2024). This sustained growthpointsto a positive outlook for officeinvestment activity in Chicago. Additionally, Q1 saw notable leasing activity inrecovering submarkets. Stripe signed on for anexpansion totaling 89k sf at 350 N Orleans inRiver North, while East Loop added NORC atthe University of Chicago in 65k sf at 300 ERandolph. This growth in investment activity has beendriven almost entirely from private buyers, asopposedto institutional,cross-border andREITinvestors.On average,private buyershavemade up 78.2%of the market’sinvestment volume since Q1 2023. Thislimited availability,coupled with adwindledconstructionpipeline,hasencouraged leasing activity in thenext-bestoption,Class A,which experienced positiveabsorption of 160k sf in Q1. Leasing activity Leasing activity in Q1 haseclipsed the 2 msf mark forthe first time since 2022 butremains 36% below the pre-pandemic (2015-2019) Q1average of 3.2 msf. At 8.5 msf, Q1 2025 rollingfour-quarter volume is up5.9% from Q1 2024, and up9.0% from the Q1 2023 total. Net absorption by asset class Through Q1, Chicago CBD isexperiencing net positiveabsorption. This is drivenheavily by +517k sf of positiveabsorption in the West Loop. While Trophy/A+ properties inChicago CBD have experiencedconsistently positiveabsorption, the amount ofabsorption is contracting by anaverage of 11.6% between2022-2024. This is caused by alack of new construction andavailability for the mostdesired asset class. While sale volume for the pastfour quarters has declined byalmost 65% from pre-pandemic levels, Chicago CBDhas experienced six straightquarters with positive YoYgrowth in volume. This growth is driven largely byprivate investors, who haveemerged as the majority buyerfor the last two years and areseemingly primed to continuethe trend into 2025. Appendix Chicago CBD office market activity Chicago CBD office market indicators Chicago CBD submarket map Office insightsglossary of terms Office rents and concessions Demand Capital markets –Investment volume:office sales dollarsexpressed when the transactions close and basedon inventory thresholds; partial-interest sale dollaramounts are not grossed-up to reflect the 100%value of the sale–Asset pricing:unweighted average per-square-foot asset pricing of market-level closed sales–Cap rate:net operating income divided by saleprice; this measurement of market-levelinvestment returns is calculated as an unweightedaverage based on closed investment sales –Leasing activity:total square footage of relocations,renewals, expansions and subleases expressed whenthe leases are signed, not when tenants take physicaloccupancy of the space–Absorption:period-over-period change in occupiedsquare footage –Asking rents:pricing guidance provided by landlords totenants for available space expressed as full service (FS)–Base rents:fair market value of market-level leasepricing based on representative executed leases,expressed as full service (FS)–Free rent period:months of free rent that are typicallyprovided upfront by landlords to tenants as aconcession to offset the total cost of a lease and/or theconstruction timeline of an office suite–Tenant improvement allowance:an allowanceexpressed in dollars per square foot provided fromlandlords to tenants to offset build-out, engineering,space planning and related permit costs–Net effective rent:base rents discounted by the dollarvalues of tenant improvement allowance and free rentconcessions expressed as full service (FS) Supply –Direct vacancy rate:space operated by landlords thatis ready for immediate occupancy–Sublease vacancy rate:space operated bysublandlords that is ready for immediate occupancy–Total vacancy rate:sum of direct vacancy rate andsublease vacancy rate–Availability rate:space that is vacant plus space thatwill become vacant over an indefinite time horizon,including spaces that are occupied by vacating tenantsand under-construction properties The hidden tightness inoffice markets: a closerlook at desirability