2025年第一季度伦敦写字楼市场报告

London OfficeMarket Report Q1 2025 Executive Summary Key Themes 2. 3. 1. 4. Quality driven leasingcontinues to dominate Structural imbalances propelsustained rental growth Renewed global economicchallenges test market resilience Surge in core asset sales THE RETURN OF UNCERTAINTY ANDA WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY retreat from risk in emerging andunstable markets, they seek refugein established hubs. London, withits transparent legal system, deepliquidity, and global connectivity,remains uniquely placed to absorbredirected capital. The Brexitexperience underscored that whileshocks can shake confidence, theyrarely dislodge London’s primacy as afinancial and commercial powerhouse.Recent tariff disputes and theaccompanying slowdown in globalgrowth merely reaffirm the city’s safehaven status. the recalibration of occupier strategies,with some firms pivoting to shorterterm leases while others double downon securing future proofed space. Largecorporates, particularly in the financialand professional service sectors,continue to account for a significantshare of demand, underscoring themarket’s resilience. London’s office market has long beendefined by its durability in the face ofadversity. Today, as global tensionsflare again, driven by US tariffs,regional conflicts, and a fresh wave ofmacroeconomic volatility, the capitalis once again tested. The IMF’s latestprojection, trimming the UK’s growthoutlook to 1.1%, offers little solace.Yet beneath the gloomy headlines,London’s commercial real estatesector reveals an intriguing paradox:adversity, in many respects, couldbecome its strongest ally. A CAPITAL SAFE HAVEN London’s office ecosystem remainsa magnet for international capital.While new sanctions and globalpolitical tensions have introducedcomplexity, investors continue toprize London’s transparent legalframework and liquidity. The West In this climate, decision-makingmay pause, but underlying demanddoes not dissipate. A notable trend is Geopolitical unrest is reshapingglobal capital flows. As investors m sq ft (LHS) , % (RHS) End, often the jewel in London’s crown,has maintained its allure thanks toscarcity value. Recent deals highlight apattern of sovereign wealth funds andinstitutional investors increasinglyseeking out large, core assets, drawn byboth defensive qualities and long-termupside potential.London – Take-up by sectorm sq ft or refurbished office space, a figurewell above the long-term average.This trend reinforces the ongoingnarrative: occupiers are prepared topay a premium for buildings that meetevolving workplace standards. “The capital’s vacancy rateat 9.0% remains above thelong-term average, but thisstatistic belies the acuteshortage of Grade A spacein core submarkets.” Conversely, smaller occupiers haveshown more caution, particularly insectors facing budgetary pressures.Despite this, the broader marketsentiment remains upbeat, with10.7m sq ft of active named demandreported at quarter end. This is 14.6%ahead of the long-term average, andillustrates latent demand, even asmacroeconomic conditions createshort-term headwinds.% New/Refurb Additionally, the depreciatingpound continues to offer a compellingentry point for overseas investors. Theimpact is twofold. Whilst importedinflation raises development costs, itsimultaneously enhances the appealof London assets priced in sterling.This has catalysed opportunisticacquisitions, particularly in the coreand value add segments of the market.NewRefurbS/hand AS/hand B4.54.03.5 shortage of Grade A space in coresubmarkets. New build vacancy in theCity is just 0.6%, and a mere 0.3% inthe West End. These figures highlightan increasingly competitive landscape,particularly for large floorplates. Thereare currently 33 active requirementsfor spaces exceeding 100,000 sq ft,but only 22 such spaces available. Thismismatch will keep upward pressureon rents.80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10% Financial service occupiers remainthe most active occupier group,accounting for 26.1% of leasingactivity, 4.3% ahead of the long-termaverage. This was followed by theprofessional group which accounted foran additional 19.5%, and ahead of thelong-term quarterly average. CROSS CURRENTS AND CONTRASTS2.5 London’s leasing market continuesto reflect a flight to quality. Theprevailing imbalance between demandfor high quality space and the limitedsupply of such stock has pushedmany occupiers to act decisively.Notably, almost two-thirds of leasingactivity in Q1 2025 – equivalent to1.6m sq ft – was concentrated in new2015 Q22015 Q32015 Q42016 Q12016 Q22016 Q32016 Q42017 Q12017 Q22017 Q32017 Q42018 Q12.01.51.00.50.0 The development pipeline peakedat 16.3m sq ft, with 11m sq ft underspeculative construction. However, thevolume of new starts is tapering off dueto rising costs and funding constraints.Source: Knight Frank Research2022 Q12022 Q22022 Q32022 Q42023 Q12023 Q22023 Q32023 Q42024 Q12024 Q22024 Q32024 Q42025 Q10% A SUPPLY CONSTRAINED OUTLOOK The capital’s vacancy rate at 9