6月销量稳健后，三季度新车型将推动新能源汽车销售

New models to drive NEV sales in 3Q after a solid Jun FourteenChinese NEV makers/brands including BYD, Great Wall, NIO,Xpeng, Li Auto,Leapmotor,Xiaomi, HIMA, Galaxy,Zeekr, Aion,Voyah,Deepal andAvatrreported theirJun2025 sales volumes on 1Jul2025. TotalNEVsales volume combined rose27% YoY (ranging from-24% to +224%)andremained flatMoM (ranging from-20% to +19%) last month. China Auto Sector Ji SHI, CFA(852) 3761 8728shiji@cmbi.com.hk Li Automissed, Xpengand NIO in line.LiAuto’s Jun deliveries fell11% MoM toabout36,000 units, driving its 2Q25 sales volume up by20% QoQ toabout 111,000units,butstill missing our previous forecastby about 13,000 units. Li Auto’s Jun deliveries were dragged by its salessystem adjustment coupled withconsumers’ hesitation to wait for someupcoming attractive new models. Wenjing DOU, CFA(852) 6939 4751douwenjing@cmbi.com.hk Austin Liang(852) 3900 0856austinliang@cmbi.com.hk Xpeng’s Jun deliveries surged 224% YoY and3% MoM toabout35,000units,driven by the sales ramp-up of theMona M03 Max. Its2Q25 salesvolumerose10% QoQ to 103,000units,in line withits previous guidancerange.We believe the G7 equipped with its self-developed AI chip(Turing), whichis tobe launched on 3 Jul, could be key tothe companyin 3Q25. Its cannibalization with the P7+and G6, as well as thecompetition with the XiaomiYu7deservemore attention. NIO’s Jun deliveries rose 7% MoM to about 25,000 units, mainly drivenbytheNIO brand. Its 2Q25 sales volume rose 71% QoQ to 72,000 units,hitting the lower end of the previous guidance range, thanks to thefaceliftedES6andET5, as well as the contribution from Firefly brand.The company has been streamlining its organizations and personnelacross the three brands to reduce resource waste.The actual outcomecould be less ideal than management’s expectation, in our view. BYD destocking,Geely raised FY25 target, Leapmotorhitarecordhigh.BYD’swholesalevolume remained largely flat MoM at 378,000units in Jun, which may indicate aninventoryreductionof about 50,000unitslast month,based on our calculations.Although the“618”promotion expired on 30 Jun, weexpect discounts to continue in3Q25.Wholesale volumeof Geely’s Galaxy brandsurged 202% YoY and fell11% MoM toabout90,000 units in Jun, which may indicate aninventoryreductionof 7,000-8,000unitsat dealersbased on our calculations.Geely lifted its full-year sales target to 3mn units from 2.71mn unitson 1Jul,higher than our prior forecast of 2.8mn units. Geely’s total salesvolume rose 47% YoY to 1.4mn units in 1H25.Leapmotor’s wholesalevolume rose 7%MoM toabout48,000 units in Jun, a record high again.Leapmotor announced a carbon dioxide credits transfer agreementintheEU and UKwith Stellantis on 1 Jul with a maximum consideration ofRMB1.5bn in FY25, whichcould be another positive catalyst. NEVretail salesvolumeto rise 29% YoY in 1H25.We projectNEVretail sales volume inJun 2025torise28%YoY and 10%MoM to about1.06mnunits, withNEVmarket shareat 51-52%.We expectseveralhigh-profile new NEVs to start deliveries in Jul, including the XiaomiYu7,XpengG7and Lii8,which may push NEV market share increases. WeprojectTesla’s retail sales volume in China tofall10% YoY and 3% QoQto about 132,000 units in 2Q25. Teslamaycount on a new 6-seatModelY, coupled with higher promotionsin a bid to boost sales in China in2H25, in our view. Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe researchanalyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respectto the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neitherthe analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and FuturesCommission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issueof this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report.CMBIGM or its affiliate(s) have investment banking relationship with the issuers covered in this repor