市场回顾

July 1, 2025 MarketReview GovernmentbondpricesmovedsidewaysintradingonMonday(30/06).IndonesiaCompositeBondIndexincreasedby0.01%to414.00.Yieldof5-year(FR0104)and10-year(FR0103)IGBbenchmarkdropped0.3bpsand0.6bpsto6.29%and6.62%.Meanwhile,yieldof15-year(FR0106)and20-year(FR0107)IGBbenchmark declined 0.4 bps and gained 1.4 bps to 6.95%and 7.01%,respectively. USTreasury yields moved lower as investors monitored whether theSenatewouldpassPresidentDonaldTrump'sspendingbill.Thebenchmark10-yearUSTyieldfellmorethan4basispointsto4.238%,andthe30-yearyieldwasmorethan 5 basis pointslower at 4.787%.Trump'sspendingbill passed akeyprocedural hurdle in the Senate on Saturday and is now slated for a finaldebatein the Senate.The package could add more than$3.9 trillion to thenationaldebt,per a Congressional Budget Office analysis.Trump is pushinglawmakerstopassthebillbeforetheupcomingIndependenceDayholidayonJuly4.The White House said in a statement that President Trump is committed tokeepinghispromises,andfailuretopassthisbillwouldbetheultimatebetrayal.Onthetariffsfront,TrumpsaidovertheweekendthathewillbeterminatingalldiscussionsonTradewithCanada,aftertheydecidedtoimposeadigitalservicestaxonAmericanfirms.However,Canada walkedbackthetaxonSundaynight,sayingit'sintheinterestofmutuallybeneficialcomprehensivetradearrangements.TheUSandChinahadseparatelyfinalizedaframeworkontradeonFriday.If enacted,theSenatebill wouldcodify several ofTrump’scampaignpromises,including extensions for his 2017 tax cuts,such as lower income-taxbrackets,higher standard deductions,a bigger child tax credit and otherprovisions.TheSenatebillalsoincludesnewpolicyproposals,suchastaxbreaksfortip income,overtime pay,auto loans and a bonus deduction for olderAmericanstohelpoffsetSocialSecurityincometaxes.Mondayisquietintermsofeconomicdata,butinvestorswillfollowtheISMManufacturingPMIandJOLTsjobopeningsonTuesday,aswellasnon-farmpayrollsonThursday. Thegovernment will release several domestic economic data today,includinginflation and trade balance data.The government is targetinginflationintherangeof2.5%±1%in2025.InflationinJune2025isestimatedtoincreaseby0.2%onamonthlybasisand1.9%annually,withcoreinflationintherangeof2.4%annually.Thisreflectspricepressuresthatremainrelativelyundercontrolbutstillneedtobemonitored.Thisdevelopmentiscausedbyfoodpricepressuresthat occurred due to increased demand during school holidays.Coreinflationisalsocausedbyhighgoldpricesontheworldmarket.Thisshowsthatthereis cost-push inflation or demand-pull inflation in conditions of weakeninghouseholdconsumption.Theimplementationofthestimuluspackagetomaintainpurchasingpower andstabilizationinthesecondquarterof2025 hasnothadasignificantimpactoninflationinJune2025.Theimpactofthispolicywillonlybefeltin July 2025,along with the estimated increase in public spending.In thiscontext,inflation control policies should focus on stabilizing food and logisticssupplies,while Bank Indonesia's room for interest rate easing remains open ifexternalpressures ease and consumption needs to be encouraged withoutcreatingrisks to price stability.Inflation conditions will also be one of BI'sconsiderationsindeterminingthebenchmarkinterestrate.Inthefuture,thereisstillroomfor lowering thebenchmark interestrate,butBI isalsoconsidering anumberoffactorsfromglobaleconomicconditions. CorporateNews BankMandiri Taspen will issue bonds as a strategy to strengthen itsfundingstructure,aswellassupportthe growthof therealsector.Thebank,whichfocusesonthepensionsegment,issuedShelfRegistrationBondsIIPhaseI Year 2025 worth IDR1.5 trillion which will be issued in July 2025.ThisbondispartoftheShelfRegistrationPublicOffering(PUB)program.TheDirectorofFinance,Risk,andOperationsofBankMandiriTaspensaidthattheissuanceofthebonds received a significant positive response from the market,evenrecordingoversubscription.Thisisbelievedtoreflectinvestorinterestandtrustinthecompany'sperformanceandfundamentals.Thepositiveresponsereceivednotonlyreflects confidence in the fundamentals and prospects of Bank MandiriTaspen,but also representsreal support for strengthening the national pensionecosystem.