2025年中期展望：长期视角下的市场与经济分析

Long-termperspective onmarkets andeconomies 2025Midyear Outlook As we reach the midpoint of 2025, the change we’ve witnessed since thestart of the year is staggering and has translated into a high level of marketvolatility. So much has happened so quickly, it feels a bit like the title ofthe Oscar-winning movieEverything Everywhere All at Once. We are livingin interesting times, and they are different from anything I’ve seen in my35 years at Capital Group. At the moment, investors don’t know how these events will play out, andthat’s why the financial markets are having a difficult time finding a cleardirection. Volatility rose sharply in the first half of the year as tariff-inducedtrade wars and real wars dampened the global outlook. This lack of clarityis affecting the decisions of investors and company managements alike.It’s become much harder to determine where to invest, over what periodand what types of returns to expect. In my view, that has led directly to thestock market correction we saw earlier this year, as well as higher yields onUS Treasury bonds and a decline in the value of the US dollar. “We are in the middle of a fundamental restructuring of the geopolitical orderthat we’ve known since the end of World War II — politically, militarily andeconomically. The integrated global system we’ve come to rely on over thepast several decades is rapidly changing and may look very different goingforward. We can’t assume this system will survive in the years ahead, whetherthat means the end of multinational military alliances, the abandonment oflong-held agreements between trading partners, or the redrawing ofcomplex supply chains that have dominated global trade. We must keep in mind, however, that we started the year at a point ofextremely high US equity valuations. One could argue a correction wasoverdue. There was a lot of good news baked into the market after the USpresidential election. Recent trade deals involving the US, UK and Chinaare encouraging signs that some of the uncertainty could be resolved inthe second half of the year. And that may help us envision a framework forthe future. In the meantime, you’ve heard this message from Capital Group manytimes before, but it bears repeating: Volatility presents opportunities forfundamental, bottom-up investors. It’s our job to identify compellinginvestment themes in this or any market environment. In these pages,we offer you an overview of those opportunities as we see them. We are in the middle of afundamental restructuringof the geopolitical order. With that in mind, I invite you to read and share our 2025 MidyearOutlook report. Jody JonssonVice Chair and Portfolio ManagerCapital Group MACRO PERSPECTIVES Economic outlook: Higher uncertainty and lower growth Policy uncertainty has weighed on markets As policy uncertainty rises, global economic growth projections are falling. Downwardrevisions already have been issued for the US, Europe, Japan and many emerging markets,based on the latest available figures from the International Monetary Fund. Recent limitedtrade deals involving the US, UK and China are encouraging but much remains to be done. A lack of clarity over US trade policy — with rising tariffs at the centre of the storm — hasdelivered a severe shock to the global economy. For the first time since 2022, US grossdomestic product (GDP) in the first quarter declined. Some companies stopped issuingforward guidance. Capital expenditures have been delayed. Cargo volumes haveplummeted at major ports. And hiring has slowed. “Many companies are hitting the pause button because they don’t know what the rules aregoing to be a week, a month or a year from now,” Capital Group economist Darrell Spenceexplains. “Even if some tariffs are ultimately lowered or rescinded, this pause effect is goingto have an impact. Whether that pushes us into a recession or not remains an openquestion, but it raises the risk significantly.” MACRO PERSPECTIVES Four scenarios for a changing global landscape A global trade war and shifting political alliances could slowgrowth, boost inflation and raise the risk of a recession. Onthe other hand, markets could respond positively to swiftand successful trade negotiations. Global realignment: A world in transition Capital Group’s Night Watch team — a group of economists,political analysts and portfolio managers — explores theseand other possibilities using scenario analysis. Rather thanmake predictions, they identify a range of outcomes, thenconnect them to investment implications. Trade battlefront Grand bargains Global tariff and trade measures spike in response toUS policy, but alliances remain intact. Opening positions prove flexible, diplomacyprevailsand alliances survive. Defence/aerospaceDomestic businessesAutomationConsumer discretionaryGlobal trade Consumer discretionaryFinancialsGlobal tradeConsumer staples and utilitiesGold Four potential outcomes have emerged: a trade battlefront,cha