6月制造业PMI小幅上升

Eva YIAnalystSAC No. S0570520100005SFC No. AMH263evayi@htsc.com+(852) 3658 6000 Huatai Research 30 June 2025│China (Mainland) Quick Take WU WanyiAnalystSAC No. S0570524090005SFC No. BVN199wuwanyi@htsc.com+(86) 10 6321 1166 Comments on China’s manufacturing PMI for June 2025 In June, China’s manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.7% from 49.5% in May,slightlyabove the Bloomberg consensus of 49.6%but still below theseasonalnorm.The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to50.5% from 50.3% in May (Bloomberg consensus:50.3%), with constructionactivity showing a notable improvement in PMI sentiment, likely reflecting anacceleration in infrastructure projects.Manufacturing PMIin Juneimprovedmarginallyvs May alongside continued recovery in supply and demandsub-indices,although levels remained below seasonal averages (the 2016–2024average excluding 2020 was 50.3%). WANG Mingshuo, CFA, PhDAnalystSAC No. S0570123070085SFC No. BUP051wangmingshuo@htsc.com+(86) 10 6321 1166 With the expiration of the reciprocal tariff exemption period approaching,theexportrush effectmay still be supporting external demand and production, while domesticconsumption received a boost from mid-year shopping festivals and the “trade-in”subsidy program.The production index roseby0.3pp to 51.0%, while the neworders/newexport orders indices increased to 50.2/47.7%from 49.8/47.5%,respectively. On prices, both the input price and ex-factory price indices improved,likely supported by the recent rebound in international oil prices,in our view, butremained below the boom-bust line, indicating still-weak momentum in industrialgoods price increase. Across sectors,thePMI for equipment manufacturing, high-tech, and consumergoods industriesremained in expansion territory for a second consecutive month,while sentiment in energy-intensive industries stayed subdued. Lookingahead,uncertainty surrounding tariff policy post the 9 Julyexpiration of the “reciprocal tariff” exemption could weighon future exportand production activity. Meanwhile, business climate indicators such as theEPMIand BCI softened in June,suggesting that the recovery inmanufacturing sentiment warrants further observation, while monetary andfiscal policies have yet to intensify to reinforce the foundation of nominalgrowth, in our view.On the external front, Huatai’s Daily Exporter Tracker(HDET) has moderated in June mtd relative to May. High-frequency trade volume indicators also suggest that China’s preemptiveexport activities to the US—following the tariff de-escalation in May—havecontinued to cool since mid-June. The easing of China-US tradedynamicsin Maytemporarily boosted the number of containers shipped from China to the US, butbegan to decline steadily after peaking in mid-June (see our Chinese report ontariffimpacts and global trade disruptions published on 25 June 2025).Considering that the strategic emerging industries PMI (EPMI) and the ChinaBusiness Climate Index (BCI) in June both fell mom by3.1/1pp to 47.9/49.3, therecovery in manufacturing sentiment may still require a solidified foundation. Werecommend monitoring whether fiscal easing can be further stepped up to drive arebound in domestic demand. Given the high base in 4Q24 and the front-loading offiscal spending earlier this year, a funding gap may emerge in 4Q25.We expectend-3Q25 to early 4Q25 could present a potential policy window for fiscal spendingramp-up and marginal monetary easing(see our reportConsumption ResilienceOutperformed That of Investment in Maypublished on17June 2025). Specifically: 1.Continued recovery across supply and demand indicators On the production side, the manufacturing production index roseby0.3ppmom to 51.0% in June, while moderately improved demand helped lift thepurchasing volume index by 2.6pp mom to 50.2%.However, the productionand business activity expectation index declined by 0.5pp to 52.0%. PMI readingsby enterprise scale diverged: large-/medium-sized enterprises saw their PMIs rise0.5/1.1pp mom to 51.2/48.6%, while the PMI for small-sized enterprises fell 2ppmom to 47.3%. On the employment front, the manufacturing employment indexedged down 0.2pp mom to 47.9%,likelysuggesting that labor market sentiment inthemanufacturing sector remains weak and still awaits stabilization. On the demand side, both the new order index and the new export orderindex picked up mom in June, although the divergence in business climatebetween traditional and emerging industries remained notable.Specifically: ▪The new order index rose 0.4pp mom to 50.2%. The divergence in sentimentbetweennew and traditional growth drivers continued.High-techmanufacturing posted a PMI of 50.9%, remaining in expansion for the fifthconsecutivemonth.Equipment manufacturing and consumer goodsindustries recorded PMIs of 51.4% and 50.4%, up 0.2pp from the previousmonth. The energy-intensive industry PMI rose by 0.8pp mom to 47.8%, butremained in a subdued range. ▪InJunemtd, the scale of China’spreemptiveexports to