南华期货贵金属2025年半年度展望：趋势向上 以静候时

92 70 ETF 73500 253100 370072087034.5418350 9800 AI 20111290 Z0016569xyy@nawaa.com 0571-87839265 目录...............................................................................................................................21.贵金属市场回顾.....................................................................................................42.美国关税政策交易助力挤仓环境............................................................................73.美指与美债收益率下行推升贵金属估值...............................................................114.央行购金继续提供需求支持.................................................................................195.投资需求是关键变量............................................................................................276.贵金属行情展望...................................................................................................316.12025年下半年展望：趋势向上以静候时.......................................................316.2风险提示......................................................................................................32 图1.1：SHFE金银价格走势图......................................................................................4图1.2：COMEX金价与金银比......................................................................................4图1.3：CME金银铂钯价格走势图（2013~）.................................................................4图1.4：CME金银铂钯价格走势图（2024~）.................................................................4图1.5：CME黄金与铂钯..............................................................................................4图1.6：CME白银与铂钯..............................................................................................4图1.7：全球贵金属2025H1行情总览（截止6月17日）...............................................5图1.8：COMEX金银25H1走势及相关事件..................................................................5图1.9：金银影响因素...................................................................................................6图2.10：COMEX与伦敦金价差多次异动......................................................................7图2.11：黄金库存（吨）..............................................................................................8图2.12：白银库存（吨）..............................................................................................8图2.13：COMEX黄金持仓变化（基数月）...................................................................8图2.14：COMEX黄金持仓变化（偶数月）...................................................................8图2.15：COMEX白银持仓变化（主力月）...................................................................8图2.16：COMEX白银持仓变化（非主力月）...............................................................8图2.17：贵金属租赁利率..............................................................................................9图3.18：金价与美指...................................................................................................11图3.19：金价与10Y美债实际利率.............................................................................11图3.20：美国隐含利率与金价走势..............................................................................11图3.21：欧元区隐含利率............................................................................................12图3.22：英国隐含利率...............................................................................................12图3.23：美联储FOMC会后声明................................................................................12图3.24：美联储点阵图变化........................................................................................13图3.25：美联储6月经济预测表 ..................................................................................13图3.26：美国周度经济指数........................................................................................14图3.27：美国零售销售...............................................................................................14图3.28：美CPI及细分项............................................................................................15图3.29：CPI与核心CPI环比增速（%）.....................................................................15图3.30：CPI与核心CPI同比增速（%）.....................................................................15图3.31：CPI同比及推演.............................................................................................15图3.32：核心CPI同比及推演.....................................................................................15图3.33：PCE同比及推演............................................................................................16图3.34：核心PCE同比及推演....................................................................................16图3.35：美非农就业人数与U3失业率........................................................................16图3.36：美非农就业报告修正情况..............................................................................16图3.37：美国联邦基金利率（%） ...............................................................................17图3.38：美联储资产负债表........................................................................................17图3.39：美联储资产负债表........................................................................................17图3.40：美国金融市场流动性....................................................