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尿素周报：追肥旺季来临，上游呈去库趋势

2025-06-29梁宗泰、陈莉、杨露露、吴硕琮、刘启展华泰期货一***

AI智能总结

尿素市场分析总结

一、价格与价差

尿素主力合约收盘1717元/吨，下跌7元；河南、山东、江苏小颗粒市场价格分别稳定、上涨10元、上涨10元。
山东、河南、江苏尿素基差分别上涨17元、7元、17元，尿素生产利润为280元/吨，出口利润下降33.2元/吨。

二、上游供应

企业产能利用率85.8%，下降2.5%；厂内库存109.6万吨，下降4.0%；港口库存38.1万吨，上升8.6%。
尿素装置临时停车增加，开工率走低，产量下降；煤炭与天然气原料价格稳定，成本端延续稳定。

三、下游需求

复合肥产能利用率30.1%，下降1.7%；三聚氰胺产能利用率63.2%，下降1.7%；尿素企业预收订单天数6.2日，下降0.1日。
下游需求不及预期，复合肥进入季节性淡季，开工率持续走低；农业进入夏季追肥旺季，采购量增加；其他工业需求偏弱。

四、尿素库存

尿素出口配额逐步释放，外需有序出口，港口库存大幅提升。

五、市场分析

伊朗以色列地缘冲突结束，市场情绪缓和，尿素盘面交易重回基本面。
关注下游农需启动与出口情况。

六、策略与风险

单边策略：中性；跨期策略：无。
风险因素：装置检修与复产情况、库存变动情况、尿素出口影响。

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2025年期货市场研究报告目录一、价格与价差.........................................................................................................................................3二、上游供应............................................................................................................................................5三、下游需求............................................................................................................................................6四、尿素库存............................................................................................................................................7图表图1：尿素小颗粒山东市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图2：尿素小颗粒河南市场主流价............................................................................................................................................3图3：尿素主力合约价格走势....................................................................................................................................................3图4：尿素01合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图5：尿素05合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图6：尿素09合约价格走势........................................................................................................................................................3图7：尿素01-05合约价差走势...................................................................................................................................................4图8：尿素05-09合约价差走势...................................................................................................................................................4图9：尿素09-01合约价差走势...................................................................................................................................................4图10：尿素山东主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图11：尿素河南主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图12：尿素江苏主连基差..........................................................................................................................................................4图13：尿素周度产量..................................................................................................................................................................5图14：尿素开工率......................................................................................................................................................................5图15：尿素气制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图16：尿素煤制开工率..............................................................................................................................................................5图17：尿素生产成本..................................................................................................................................................................5图18：尿素生产利润..................................................................................................................................................................5图19：复合肥开工率..................................................................................................................................................................6图20：三聚氰胺开工率..............................................................................................................................................................6图21：尿素待发订单天数..........................................................................................................................................................6图22：中国小颗粒FOB..............................................................................................................................................................6图23：中国大颗粒FOB..............................................................................................................................................................6图24：波罗的海小颗粒FOB......................................................................................................................................................6图25：巴西大颗粒CFR..............................................................................................................................................................7图26：东南亚大颗粒CFR..........................................................................................................................................................7图27：小颗粒波罗的海FOB-中国FOB-3

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