金工周报：择时模型以看多为主 后市或乐观向上

未经许可，禁止转载证券分析师：王小川电话：021-20572528邮箱：wangxiaochuan@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360517100001《华创金工周报（20250616-20250620）：择时信号以中性为主，后市或偏向中性震荡》华创证券研究所 相关研究报告 2025-06-21 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210号目录一、市场回顾与展望.............................................................................................4（一）指数角度....................................................................................................41、宽基角度......................................................................................................42、行业角度......................................................................................................5（二）基金角度..................................................................................................101、股票与混合型基金收益...............................................................................102、ETF角度...................................................................................................103、本周成立基金情况......................................................................................11（三）大师策略监控...........................................................................................11（四）VIX指数监控...........................................................................................11（五）形态学监控..............................................................................................121、形态识别系列本周组合表现一览.................................................................122、杯柄形态本周表现......................................................................................123、双底形态本周表现......................................................................................144、本周实现突破的个股..................................................................................15二、市场热点与机会...........................................................................................17（一）下周新发基金...........................................................................................17（二）风险个股提醒...........................................................................................191、形态风险个股.............................................................................................192、其他风险事件.............................................................................................20（三）复盘与后市观点.......................................................................................21（四）总结.........................................................................................................21三、历史观点回顾..............................................................................................22四、风险提示.....................................................................................................27 2 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210号图表目录图表1常见宽基本周行情.........................................................................................4图表2宽基短期、中期、长期择时信号展示.............................................................5图表3行业指数涨跌幅相关性矩阵...........................................................................6图表4分析师一致预期角度看行业...........................................................................6图表5部分行业历史仓位展示..................................................................................8图表6基金绝对仓位................................................................................................8图表7基金超低配仓位.............................................................................................9图表8不同类型基金本周行情................................................................................10图表9本周收益前10的ETF基金..........................................................................10图表10大师策略监控.............................................................................................11图表11 HCVIX最新走势图....................................................................................12图表12杯柄形态组合净值走势...............................................................................13图表13上周杯柄形态实现突破的个股....................................................................13图表14双底形态组合净值走势...............................................................................14图表15上周双底形态实现突破的个股....................................................................14图表16本周双底形态实现突破的个股....................................................................15图表17本周杯柄形态实现突破的个股....................................................................16图表18下周新发基金.............................................................................................17图表19上周倒杯子形态实现突破个股....................................................................19图表20下周解禁事件涉及个股...............................................................................19图表21其他风险事件.............................................................................................20图表22历史观点回顾.............................................................................................22 3 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210号一、市场回顾与展望（一）指数角度1、宽基角度本周市场普遍上涨，上证指数单周上涨1.91%，创业板指单周上涨5.69%。图表1常见宽基本周行情证 券代码宽 基名称399296.SZ创成长399673.SZ创业板50399102.SZ创业板综399006.SZ创业板指399303.SZ国证2000000852.SH中证1000399106.S