柬埔寨电动汽车普及的影响分析

Analysis of the Impact of the Penetration ofElectric Vehicles in Cambodia Analysis of the Impact of the Penetration of Electric Vehicles in Cambodia Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)Sentral Senayan II 6thFloorJalan Asia Afrika No. 8, Gelora Bung KarnoSenayan, Jakarta Pusat 12710Indonesia © Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, 2025ERIA Research Project Report FY2025 No.7Published in June 2025 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrievalsystem, or transmitted in any form by any means electronic or mechanical without priorwritten notice to and permission from ERIA. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein do not necessarily reflectthe views and policies of the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, itsGoverning Board, Academic Advisory Council, or the institutions and governments theyrepresent. Material in this publication may be freely quoted or reprinted with properacknowledgement. In this publication, $ refers to United States dollars. Preface As countries around the world accelerate their shift from internal combustionengine(ICE)vehicles to battery electric vehicles(BEVs)in pursuit ofdecarbonisation, the resulting increase in electricity demand underscores the needfor clean power generation systems. For Cambodia, which already relies heavily onhydropower and is planning to incorporate liquefied natural gas (LNG) into itsenergy mix, the transition to BEVs aligns well with its environmental goals. However, the broader implications of electric vehicle (EV) adoption must becarefully considered. Key areas of concern include:i) potential economic losses for Cambodia’s domestic oil industry;ii) the substantial investment needed in the power sector, particularly for newgeneration capacity and transmission infrastructure;iii) the development of EV-supporting infrastructure, such as charging stations;iv) macroeconomic impacts; andv) implications for energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Given the current limitations in data availability, the Economic Research Institutefor ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) has undertaken a preliminary analysis of thepotential positive and negative impacts of EV penetration in Cambodia. The findingsindicate that EV adoption will influence several key areas of national planning,including the Power Development Plan, infrastructure development, and energypolicy – particularly those related to the oil sector. This report presents a multi-dimensional analysis of the potential impact of BEVadoption in Cambodia, covering the power and oil sectors, economic growth,infrastructure readiness, and environmental sustainability. It is intended to supportevidence-based policymaking and guide the formulation of strategic plans for EVdeployment. I hope the insights offered in this report will contribute to shaping aclear and effective direction for Cambodia’s transition to electric mobility. Shigeru Kimura, MrFormer Senior Policy Fellow for Energy AffairsEconomic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) Acknowledgements This report was prepared by the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and EastAsia (ERIA). The ERIA team comprised: MrShigeru Kimura,Former Senior Policy Fellow on Energy Affairs,whosupervised the project; Dr Han Phoumin, Senior Energy Economist, who provided an overview of thecurrent electric vehicle (EV) programme in Cambodia; Dr Alloysius Joko Purwanto, Energy Economist, who projected the number of EVsand charging stations in Cambodia; Mr Kei Sudo,FormerProgramme Manager on Energy, who analysed the impact ofEVs on the power sector; Ms Laksmita Dwi Hersaputri, Research Associate, who provided general supportto the project; and Mr Takahisa Hiruma, Vice President of the ASIAM Research Institute and externalexpert, who analysed the impact of EVs on Cambodia’s oil industry. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to all ERIA team members for theiroutstanding contributions to the success of this research study. List of Project Members Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia Study Team Ms Laksmita Dwi Hersaputri, Research Associate, Energy Unit, ERIAMr Takahisa Hiruma, Vice President, ASIAMMr Shigeru Kimura, Former Senior Policy Fellow for Energy AffairsDr Han Phoumin, Senior Energy Economist, Energy Unit, ERIADr Alloysius Joko Purwanto, Energy Economist, Energy Unit, ERIAMr Kei Sudo, Former Programme Manager on Energy, Energy Unit, ERIA Table ofContents PrefaceiiiAcknowledgementsivList of Project MembersvList ofFigures and TablesviiAbbreviationsxiiExecutive SummaryxivChapter 1: Current Policies on Electric Vehicles in Cambodia1Chapter 2:The Current Situation and the Forecast for Electric VehiclePenetration in Cambodia8Chapter 3: Impact Analysis of Electric Vehicle Penetration on theCambodian Oil Industry24Chapter 4: Impact Analysis of Cambodia’s Power Sector39Chapter 5: The Impact of Electric Vehicles on E