全球汽车：中国电动汽车普及、卡车周期、日本重组以及E-208 GTi（本周要点回顾-第24周）

Daniel Roeska+1 917 344 8577daniel.roeska@bernsteinsg.comHarry Martin, CFA+44 207 676 8965harry.martin@bernsteinsg.comEunice Lee, CFA+852 2123 2606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com Global Autos: China EV adoption, truck cycle, Japan restructuring,and the E-208 GTi (ICYMI week 24) This week’s pulse on global autos underscores just how bifurcated the sector is becoming. China now accounts for 60% of global EVsales and is exporting its blueprint for mass electrification: affordable, tech-forward, and increasingly competitive abroad. Meanwhile,European trucks enter a downturn just as U.S. orders stall under tariff anxiety, and the first signs of parts bankruptcies are flashing.Sona BLW stumbles under EV macro headwinds, while Japan’s supply chain enters its third wave of restructuring. If you’re trackingdisruption, divergence, or debt, there’s something here for you. Our car of the week is the upcoming Peugeot E-208 GTi - a very hothot-hatch. You only have to suffer two more weeks of this madness, it’s still that time of year:II/Extel voting is open in the U.S.(vote here). Ifyou’ve found our global autos work useful, we’d be grateful for your support! Keep your hands on the wheel,Daniel KEY RESEARCH SUMMARIES Breaking Down the Chinese blueprint for EV adoption and global electrification:With ~60% of global electric vehicle sales and ~50%domestic EV penetration, China has established itself as a global leader in the EV market. Chinese EVs are increasingly gaining tractionin international markets, building on their domestic success. The introduction of affordable models with improved range and chargingcapabilities has facilitated rapid growth in EV adoption in China since 2020. In 2025, the prices of Chinese EVs are now on par if not cheaperwith those of ICE vehicles, making them an attractive option for consumers. China's experience serves as a valuable playbook for the world,showcasing effective strategies to drive EV adoption. Read: Electric Revolution: Divergence — China's path to leading EV adoption, blueprintfor global electrification efforts EU truck sector in a diverging cycle:The truck sector entered 2025 on the back of a multi-year upgrade cycle driven by constrainedsupply and reaching all-time high pricing & margins. After demonstrating solid delivery volumes despite declining order books in 2024, Q12025 marked the beginning of negative volume growth across the board. However, there were positive surprises in the European orderbooks for both trucks and buses. However, there were positive surprises in the European order books for both trucks and buses. Tariffuncertainty in the United States is contributing to a decline in orders, and we expect this trend to continue into H2. For the first time in sevenyears, the truck cycles in the U.S. and EU are diverging, with anticipated declining U.S. orders for H2 driven by uncertainty surrounding theTrump administration. While we remain more optimistic about Europe than the U.S., the consensus for Traton appears to have the mostdownside risk. Read: EU Trucks: An investor's guide to a diverging cycle Sona BLW near-term outlook deteriorated as EV risks increase: Downgrading Sona BLW to Market-Perform. Sona's order book,$2.8bn (6x trailing sales), along with a rising EV product mix was the foundation for our previous positive outlook and driver of a 32% EBITDACAGR over the past five years. However, recent Trump-Econ tensions, the proposed "One Big Beautiful Bill Act", ongoing US-India tradeissues, and the rising strength of Chinese OEMs all present near-term risks to Sona. Tesla, as Sona's largest EV customer, is also seeingvolume declines driven by competition from OEMs. Slowing of US EV adoption also slows down Sona's TAM growth as EVs contain higher For the exclusive use of JATIN CHAWLA at TVF CAPITAL ADVISORS PTE LTD on 16-Jun-2025 Daniel Roeska+1 917 344 8577 daniel.roeska@bernsteinsg.com product content for vehicle. Read: Sona BLW: EV risks increasing-Downgrade to Market-Perform Japan Autos restructuring phase 3 kickoff:Another wave of restructuring is anticipated amid acceleration of xEV transition, decliningautomaker volumes, and increasing regulatory/market focus on corporate governance. Following Toyota's realignment in 2015 and Honda'saffiliated supplier optimization in 2021, we expect phase 3 of restructuring to happen in five categories. 1) Consolidation among "Keiretsu"suppliers 2) Absorption of automaker in-house business 3) Consolidation between Honda/Nissan suppliers 4) Restructuring/consolidationin other fragmented areas led by suppliers 5) Restructuring drive by PE funds and activist funds. We are also noticing Japanese Auto PartsSector losing momentum and expecting profits to deteriorate throughout the near-to-medium term. Read: Japan Autos Returns Revolution:Rev up to revive - Japan auto supply chain restructuring phase 3 to kick off Even more global autos research Volvo AB Primer: Heavy hauling (Underperform) Volvo Cars: Q2 2025 pre-clo