有利的监管环境和改善的公用事业燃料稳定币前景

Favourableregulatoryenvironment andimproving utility fuel stablecoin outlook Target PriceUS$413.00(Previous TPUS$325.00)Up/Downside10.1%Current PriceUS$375.07 The recent regulatory development and Circle IPOhave boosted investorsentiment on stablecoin business outlook and valuation. Coinbasehasalsotakeninitiatives since June,such as introducing Coinbase Payments andreportedly seeking SEC approval for tokenized equities, which we expect tofurtheraccelerate USDC adoption.Looking ahead,we expect ampleopportunities and vast TAM for the stablecoin business (15% of Coinbase totalrevenue in 1Q25), including crypto assets, cross-border payment, consumerpayment, and the tokenization of traditional assets. We revise up our valuationmultiple for the stablecoin business and our SOTP-derived target price toUS$413.0. MaintainBUY. Software &IT Services Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk Coinbase as the major distributor of USDC.Daily weighted-averageUSDC incirculationgrew from US$30.5bn in 2023 toUS$54.1bnin 1Q25,withitsmarket shareintotal stablecoin supplyup from 20% to 29%, drivenby the crypto adoption growth and improving USDC utility. As one of themajor distributors, Coinbase grew its share of USDC in circulation from 8%in 2023 to 22% in 1Q25, thanks to its rewards program launched in Jun 2023(the no. of MTUsholding USDC has doubled and average USDC balancesper holder has increased 3xsince then) anddeeperintegration of USDC intoCoinbase products. Upon the long-termpartnershipwith Circle, Coinbasecouldreceive 100/50% of daily income from the reserves backing on-platform/off-platform USDC(after deducting the fees for issuers, assetmanagers and custodians etc.), and continue to benefit from the stablecoindevelopment. Ye TAO, CFAfranktao@cmbi.com.hk Joanna Ma(852) 3761 8838joannama@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Stablecoin remains atanearly stage of development.Total market capof stablecoin surpassed US$240bn in Jun 2025, but still has a long runwaycompared toUSM2 money stock of US$21.8tn(as of Mar 2025pertheFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). We see ampleopportunitiesahead forstablecoin which could reduce costs and improveefficiencyin different usecases:1) payment:annualglobal consumer payments revenueof US$2.4tnandinternational remittances&cross-border payments revenue ofUS$288bn perMcKinsey’s 2024 Global Payments Report;2) crypto assetinvestment:the marketcapof all tracked digital assets wasUS$2.7tn as ofMar 2025;3)tokenization of traditional assets:annual global capitalmarkets revenuereached US$180bnin 2023, per S&P Global. New initiatives to capture growthopportunities.Coinbase continues toaccelerate the adoption of USDC in different use cases: 1) payment:Coinbaseannouncedpartnership with Shopify in June, to allowconsumersto pay with USDCthrough Shopify Payments. The company also introducedCoinbase Payments, astablecoin payments stackthat is offeredtomorecommerceplatforms; 2)tokenization of equities: Reuters reported thatCoinbase is seeking SEC approval to offer tokenized stocks (link). Weexpect this shallhelpCoinbase andstablecoinfurther tap into the traditionalcapital markets. Source: FactSet Focus charts Source: Company data,CMBIGM Source: Company data, CMBIGM Source: Company data; CMBIGMestimatesNote: based on 1Q25 data, forillustrativepurpose Total market cap of stablecoin surpassed US$240bn in Jun 2025, but still has a longrunway compared toUSM2 money stock of US$21.8tn(as of Mar 2025 per the FederalReserve Bank of St. Louis). We see ample opportunities ahead for stablecoin which couldreduce costs and improve efficiency in different use cases: 1) payment: annual globalconsumer payments revenue of US$2.4tn and international remittances & cross-borderpayments revenue of US$288bn per McKinsey’s 2024 Global Payments Report; 2) cryptoassetinvestment: the market cap of all tracked digital assets was US$2.7tn as of Mar 2025;3) tokenization of traditional assets: annual global capital markets revenue reachedUS$180bn in 2023, per S&P Global. Source:The Block,CoinMarketCap,Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis,CMBIGM We raise our valuation multiple of the stablecoin businesswhile maintainingotherbusinessvaluation unchanged.WenowvalueCoinbaseat US$413.0per share based onSOTPvaluation, comprising: 1)transaction business of US$262.5 per share (64% of totalvaluation) based on24x FY25E EV/EBITDA, a premium over average EV/EBITDA oftraditional exchanges/brokers(20x), given its business remains ata nascentstage withalonger growth runway; 2) custodial and assetmanagementbusiness of US$17.3per share(4% of total valuation) based on 10x FY25E EV/EBITDA (on par with assetmanagementcompanies); 3) interest and stablecoin business of US$112.3per share (27% of totalvaluation) based on18x FY25E EV/Sales, which is on par with Circle (as of 25 June);and4) net cash of US$20.3per share (5% of total valuation). Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is