生成式AI展望报告：探索技术、社会和政策的交汇点

2025 This document is a publication by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s scienceand knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymakingprocess. The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of the EuropeanCommission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission isresponsible for the use that might be made of this publication. For information on the methodology andquality underlying the data used in this publication for which the source is neither Eurostat nor otherCommission services, users should contact the referenced source. The designations employed and thepresentation of material on the maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on thepart of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of itsauthorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.EU Science Hubhttps://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.euJRC142598EUR 40337PrintISBN 978-92-68-28247-2ISSN 1018-5593doi:10.2760/0991238KJ-01-25-309-EN-CPDFISBN 978-92-68-28153-6ISSN 1831-9424doi:10.2760/1109679KJ-01-25-309-EN-NLuxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2025© European Union, 2025The reuse policy of the European Commission documents is implemented by the Commission Decision2011/833/EU of 12 December 2011 on the reuse of Commission documents (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39).Unless otherwise noted, the reuse of this document is authorised under the Creative Commons Attribution4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This means that reuse isallowed provided appropriate credit is given and any changes are indicated.For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is not owned by the European Union permissionmust be sought directly from the copyright holders.Cover page and decorative elements, © danjazzia / stock.adobe.comHow to cite this report: Abendroth Dias, K., Arias Cabarcos, P., Bacco, F.M., Bassani, E., Bertoletti, A. etal.,Generative AI Outlook Report - Exploring the Intersection of Technology, Society and Policy, NavajasCawood, E., Vespe, M., Kotsev, A. and van Bavel, R. (editors), Publications Office of the European Union,Luxembourg, 2025, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/1109679, JRC142598.Layout: Carmen Capote de la Calle Generative AIOutlook ReportExploring the Intersection of Technology, Society, and Policy2025 Abstract3Foreword41. INT RODUC TION1.1 The Emergence of Generative AI: From Research to Widespread Adoption1.2 Current State of the Technology Key Players1.3 The Foundations for GenAI: Infrastructures, Data and Models1.4 Why It Matters for EU Policymakers11121618223. ECONOMIC IMPLIC ATIONS3.1 EU’s Competitive Position in the Global GenAI Landscape3.2 Industry Transformation, New Business Models and Adoption3.3 Market Shares, Trends, and Competitive Analysis: the case of Conversational AI in Europe3.4 Impact on the labour market: employment and productivity39404448525. REGUL ATORY FR AME WORK5.1 The AI Act and its implications for Generative AI5.2 Generative AI Risks and the Digital Services Act5.3 General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and Generative AI5.4 Copyright challenges5.5 Horizontal data legislation86878992971004. SOCIE TAL IMPAC TS AND CH ALLENGES4.1 Skills Gap and AI Literacy for Citizens and Adult Workforce4.2 GenAI and Information Manipulation4.3 Generative AI portrayal in the media4.4 Digital Commons4.5 Environmental Implications of Generative AI4.6 Generative AI and Children’s Rights4.7 Generative AI and mental health4.8 Gender – as a specific case of bias and AI social implications4.9 The contribution of a behavioural approach to AI policy analysis4.10 Privacy and data protection – a societal standpoint56576264676974767881822. TECHNOLOGIC AL A SPEC TS2.1 Generative AI evaluation2.2 Cybersecurity challenges of Generative AI2.3 Emerging technological trends: a future-looking perspective for policy makers252628327Executive summary5Acknowledgements 6. DEEP DIVES6.1 Healthcare6.2 Educational System Transformation6.3 Impact of Generative AI in Science6.4 GenAI in cybersecurity6.5 Use of Generative AI in the Public sectorConclusionsReferencesList of abbreviations and definitions 104111115118120List of figuresList of tables125126143162162 ABSTRACTThis Outlook report, prepared by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), examinesthe transformative role of Generative AI (GenAI) with a specific emphasis on the European Union. Ithighlights the potential of GenAI for innovation, productivity, and societal change. GenAI is a disruptivetechnology due to its capability of producing human-like content at an unprecedented scale. As such, itholds multiple opportunities for advancements across various sectors, including healthcare, education,science, and creative industries. At the same time, GenAI also presents signific