流动性：需要担心跨季资金吗
证券研究报告 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！分析师孙彬彬SAC证书编号：S0160525020001sunbb@ctsec.com分析师隋修平SAC证书编号：S0160525020003suixp@ctsec.com分析师汪梦涵SAC证书编号：S0160525030003wangmh01@ctsec.com相关报告1.《2025年转债信用风险展望专题》2025-06-202.《转向鸽派？言之尚早——美联储6月议息会议点评》2025-06-193.《 信 用|融 资 增 量 从 哪 来 ？ 》2025-06-17 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准1需要担心跨季资金吗？...........................................................................................................................52周度资金存单跟踪和关键点提示.........................................................................................................103央行：统计期内7天逆回购整体净投放.............................................................................................114政府债：下周政府债净缴款上升至6758亿元...................................................................................125票据：从净买入到净卖出，票据利率先下后上.................................................................................156汇率：统计期升值，人民币兑美元即期汇率为7.18.........................................................................157市场资金供需：国有行融出抬升，非银提高杠杆.............................................................................168CD：买盘情绪修复，存单收益率下行...............................................................................................208.1一级发行市场：本周国有行净融资转正，发行利率下降............................................................208.2二级交易市场：活跃度上抬，国股行介入意愿增强，理财偏配置............................................239风险提示.................................................................................................................................................24图1.本周央行投放情况.................................................................................................................................6图2.本周国有行融出情况.............................................................................................................................6图3.本周基金融入情况.................................................................................................................................6图4.本周资金体感情况.................................................................................................................................6图5.当前商业银行资金跨季进度低于往年同期.........................................................................................7图6.当前核心非银资金跨季进度低于往年同期.........................................................................................7图7.当前货基跨季进度和历史同期接近持平.............................................................................................7图8.当前基金资金跨季进度低于往年.........................................................................................................7图9.当前DR001相较于往年季度稳定，且较季初更低...........................................................................8图10.当前分层走扩略高于季节性...............................................................................................................8图11.存单一级发行利率下降.......................................................................................................................8图12.过去一周国股行加入存单买盘...........................................................................................................8图13.当前存单曲线上9个月为曲线凸点...................................................................................................9图14.存单收益率打破平台期.......................................................................................................................9图15.一周资金和存单关键点跟踪.............................................................................................................10图16.下周资金扰动因素.............................................................................................................................11内容目录图表目录 2 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准3图17.央行周度操作和资金价格走势.........................................................................................................12图18.逆回购存量仍旧高于季节性.............................................................................................................12图19.统计期短期资金到期情况.................................................................................................................12图20.统计期或有中长期资金到期情况.....................................................................................................12图21.政府债净融资和缴款情况.................................................................................................................13图22.政府债净融资进度.............................................................................................................................13图23.结构视角政府债净融资量和进度情况.............................................................................................13图24.国债净融资进度.................................................................................................................................14图25.地方政府债净融资进度.....................................................................................................................14图26.政府债发行和缴款日历.....................................................................................................................14图27.票据绝对利率走势.............................................................................................................................15图28
