食品饮料行业2025年中期投资策略：关注新渠道与新品类共振下的投资机会

⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫  美容护理银行医药生物汽车农林牧渔传媒环保机械设备纺织服饰基础化工14.5%10.5%10.2%9.9%9.9%9.7%7.6%7.3%7.2%6.5%11.1%7.1%6.8%6.5%6.5%6.3%4.2%3.9%3.7%3.0%计算机社会服务钢铁国防军工综合通信家用电器建筑材料公用事业3.8%3.3%2.2%2.2%0.6%0.3%0.0%-0.4%-0.6%0.4%-0.1%-1.2%-1.3%-2.8%-3.1%-3.4%-3.8%-4.0%电子建筑装饰非银金融食品饮料商贸零售石油石化电力设备房地产煤炭-1.7%-3.4%-3.5%-3.5%-3.6%-4.1%-4.7%-6.7%-11.2%-5.2%-6.8%-6.9%-6.9%-7.0%-7.5%-8.1%-10.1%-14.6%零食保健品烘焙食品预加工食品肉制品啤酒调味发酵品Ⅲ20.0%13.1%5.7%1.2%-0.9%-1.6%-4.7%16.6%9.7%2.3%-2.2%-4.3%-5.0%-8.1% 行业有色金属涨跌幅15.3%超额收益11.9%行业轻工制造涨跌幅4.8%超额收益1.3%行业交通运输涨跌幅-0.7%超额收益-4.1%行业软饮料涨跌幅23.0%超额收益19.6% 2021202220232024山姆会员店数量（个）永辉+步步高调改数量（个）23年8月，山姆与盒马展开“移山价”大战相对于前十余年的平淡表现，山姆展店有所加速，且收入能力相对沃尔玛持续提升24年11月，“八个瑞士卷”事件扩大山姆明星单品热度24年5月，于东来启动帮扶调改永辉超市24年10月，永辉首批调改落地，动销明显改善->永辉/步步高提出积极目标，永辉2025年计划调改200家门店->众多传统商超加速调改->山姆高速布局新门店-> 2025年拟新增7家门店消费信心受挫，传统零售承压渠道变革开启，寻踪极致效率2021202220232024零食量贩市场规模（亿元）零食量贩门店数量（个，右轴）24年6月，鸣鸣很忙突破万店；零食有鸣推出折扣超市->行业龙头高速展店->量贩企业集中探索全品类硬折扣模式的门店模型23年10月，零食很忙和赵一鸣宣布合并24年12月，零食有鸣批发超市突破1000家 0204060802025010000200003000040000500002025 02040608020200400800120016002020 23Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q18.3%5.1%-6.9%36.4%-20.2%3.7%2.0%-13.8%35.2%45.9%26.5%23.6%20.9%12.9%11.9%10.3%57.6%46.2%20.2%37.0%23.4%26.2%30.0%25.7%48.1%37.3%10.9%49.8%4.9%15.6%22.0%-14.0%-3.1%38.6%29.2%91.8%43.9%24.0%36.3%2.1%11.2%11.5%-27.6%18.0%3.0%28.0%42.9%39.2%23Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q1-37.5%-13.5%-15.1%35.1%7.6%21.4%-24.8%-67.9%20.2%48.4%122.6%87.7%58.7%42.6%0.3%-8.2%98.9%67.3%32.6%43.1%19.1%15.6%33.7%11.6%246.5%95.3%67.0%65.3%16.9%17.1%-13.9%-42.2%52.0%40.9%39.7%60.8%51.2%221.9%32.6%-22.5%-16.8%-40.2%-79.7%-8.8%-0.1%75.2%258.0%16.2%23Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q120.6%26.8%29.3%30.4%25.0%33.1%25.8%19.5%26.5%26.8%32.6%30.0%30.8%30.1%31.0%29.9%36.0%32.9%31.1%32.1%33.0%30.6%27.6%28.5%34.9%37.5%36.0%35.4%34.4%36.8%35.1%34.3%18.7%24.4%20.8%27.4%21.9%24.5%21.8%26.7%31.7%27.0%24.8%31.4%30.2%28.9%25.7%27.1%23Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q18.5%8.4%9.0%12.3%10.0%7.9%9.8%10.6%10.5%11.9%9.0%13.1%12.1%12.2%10.6%13.4%11.5%11.8%13.2%13.0%13.5%12.1%11.5%11.2%11.8%9.9%11.1%13.1%13.5%11.4%12.8%17.3%21.2%19.3%16.3%16.3%21.1%19.1%16.6%18.7%10.9%13.8%14.8%11.8%12.1%9.3%10.0%8.9%收入增速归母净利润增速毛利率销售费用率 23Q1洽洽食品-6.7%劲仔食品68.4%盐津铺子55.4%甘源食品22.2%三只松鼠-38.5%有友食品-12.5%23Q1洽洽食品-14.4%劲仔食品95.7%盐津铺子81.7%甘源食品145.0%三只松鼠18.7%有友食品121.4%23Q1洽洽食品28.5%劲仔食品26.0%盐津铺子34.6%甘源食品36.3%三只松鼠28.3%有友食品33.8%23Q1洽洽食品10.7%劲仔食品11.9%盐津铺子13.8%甘源食品13.7%三只松鼠15.2%有友食品9.4% 合作时间TT-1T-0.5TT+0.5T+1 T+1.5 T+2 T+2.5 T+3盐津铺子21H234%13%20%14%38%57%32%30%劲仔食品22H15%40%31%32%49%36%22%12%甘源食品22H111%10%13%12%35%22%26%19%西麦食品22H22%15%16%11%26%39%5%卫龙美味23H1-2%-5%3%7%26%31%洽洽食品23H112%17%0%-2%8%3% 28% 23Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q430.0%35.2%40.9%39.8%47.9%47.3%25.1%35.2%20.4%3.1%6.8%-7.5%-6.1%-18.1%-0.9%2.0%0.2%-3.2%-3.0%4.5%2.4%17.1%7.8%15.6%6.6%-0.2%0.2%-16.5%2.4%6.4%27.5%7.5%15.4%-3.0%22.7%10.2%10.4%-9.4%3.9%-19.1%-18.8%16.1%23Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q449.0%33.2%39.7%33.5%74.6%78.4%61.2%28.3%-12.3%-4.2%331.3%-9.7%-0.6%-14.9%21.1%4.7%-27.3%-3.8%-49.3%13.9%39.0%40.9%32.5%19.7%-3.7%-99.2%-97.2%-38.0%21.5%4.6%7.4%3.0%-37.8%-2.3%27.0%5.2%20.4%-61.9%20.0%-15.7%-47.3%177.0%23Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q442.7%41.5%44.9%42.8%46.1%45.8%43.9%23.6%38.5%43.9%33.6%25.7%40.9%43.7%36.8%35.7%34.2%38.2%38.3%41.0%38.6%37.7%38.6%41.1%38.7%31.9%30.3%33.4%37.3%37.5%37.7%43.7%36.0%40.7%39.8%39.9%45.6%46.9%47.2%46.3%45.5%46.5%23Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q415.9%17.5%20.4%17.1%14.3%17.9%18.9%37.3%25.9%17.4%24.0%35.6%26.1%16.8%7.8%13.3%14.9%10.8%18.6%16.1%11.2%13.9%14.9%12.5%12.9%21.0%18.3%13.0%8.6%5.6%8.5%16.0%18.9%10.0%8.3%16.7%13.0%13.5%7.3%23.9%16.3%10.1%收入增速归母净利润增速毛利率销售费用率 25Q139.2%-20.0%-4.3%-18.5%-18.4%-19.7%25Q147.6%-174.5%16.2%-58.3%-12.5%-26.9%25Q144.5%31.2%42.8%31.4%48.1%46.2%25Q116.7%26.8%10.6%13.1%18.1%8.9% 23Q1东鹏饮料24.1%香飘飘37.0%李子园1.1%欢乐家43.7%承德露露2.1%养元饮品8.8%23Q1东鹏饮料44.3%香飘飘109.8%李子园45.0%欢乐家66.0%承德露露1.6%养元饮品39.9%23Q1东鹏饮料43.5%香飘飘31.0%李子园36.6%欢乐家36.9%承德露露47.6%养元饮品46.9%23Q1东鹏饮料15.7%香飘飘26.8%李子园11.7%欢乐家9.1%承德露露18.0%养元饮品8.5% 23Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q18.2%-4.6%-3.4%-5.2%-8.9%-5.3%7.4%2.9%9.6%6.5%-3.8%7.2%1.5%-7.1%-11.5%1.5%7.6%8.5%-4.4%1.7%8.8%0.2%1.3%6.7%11.4%5.9%1.2%7.0%8.1%6.9%2.1%10.7%-17.8%-10.6%-11.7%-26.9%4.0%-4.9%-23.5%-11.5%12.5%4.2%-64.7%2.9%-1.3%-0.4%145.5%0.4%23Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q114.4%4.7%-15.0%10.1%3.5%-9.0%-0.8%7.1%23.5%5.3%-109.2%16.8%-6.0%-10.1%-2801.4%4.6%28.5%37.4%2.8%58.9%45.9%19.8%25.3%61.1%15.1%8.0%-171.9%39.4%35.6%10.6%118.7%29.8%-21.6%85.0%-482.6%70.9%-135.7%-381.3%-5.6%934.6%20.0%26.7%-68.6%468.5%23.6%15.4%4.1%23.7%23Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q140.1%40.9%27.5%40.4%42.8%42.1%26.2%41.6%51.4%50.5%48.8%47.9%50.5%49.2%43.4%48.4%45.7%48.0%-6.6%37.2%48.3%48.0%9.9%42.8%48.2%45.7%27.7%42.1%53.1%49.8%28.8%45.0%25.5%26.3%-16.7%10.8%16.5%26.9%-49.5%15.3%34.1%33.2%-34.7%30.6%35.6%35.9%-4.0%32.0%23Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q18.3%11.7%41.4%12.8%8.7%14.1%37.2%12.5%15.9%15.6%33.1%13.1%17.2%14.7%34.4%12.7%9.4%15.9%-0.6%11.9%10.0%13.9%2.6%15.7%13.3%13.1%23.4%16.6%13.1%15.2%16.0%15.8%21.7%15.5%24.7%16.2%27.8%44.0%33.9%15.5%4.4%1.1%15.2%9.1%6.7%1.7%1.3%6.