2025年全球航空公司增长，而美国旅游业下降

Airline EconomicState of the Industry: 1Q 2025 Analysis By Tom Stalnaker, Khalid Usman, Grant Alport,Andy Buchanan, and Aaron Taylor A business of Marsh McLennan CONTENT 1Introduction 2Global overview 3Airline performance by regionNorth America (US/Canada)EuropeLatin AmericaAsia/PacificAfrica/Middle East/India 4Special topic: Recent demand trends in the US market 5Appendix WELCOME TO THE NEWAIRLINE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS REPORT What is the Airline Economic Analysisand what is changing? •The Airline Economic Analysis (AEA)is Oliver Wyman’s report on the financialstate of the airline industry•We have published the AEA annuallyfor the past 15 years as a written report,heavily focused on the US sector•We are transitioning to a quarterly releasewith a more global focus and a lighter,more visually driven style•The AEA will continue to include traditionalin-depth analysis including US industryfinancial deep dives and global capacitytrends.•We will also continue to publish featureson emerging trends and their implicationsfor the industry and its ecosystem NOTES ON APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY Results for each region are presented in three sections, using the following approach: FORWARDFIRST QUARTER 2025 INDUSTRY REVIEW In this installment, we review first quarter 2025results for the airline industry worldwide •Worldwide nominal GDP grew by 2.9% year-over-year, but softness emerged during thefirst quarter with an increasing threat ofrecession in several large economies•The airline industry1grew capacity globallyby 3.5%, realized 4.1% revenue growth,and produced an operating margin of 2.3%•Operating costs increased 1.8% (CASM) andunit revenue (RASM) increased 1.1% Operatingmargin 1Q 2025For carriers inglobal index Insufficient Data With the US experiencing its first majordisruption of the “new normal” of post-pandemic demand, we more closely examinerecent trends in that market Q1 year-over-yearFor carriersin global index Very best,Tom StalnakerKhalid UsmanGrant AlportAndy BuchananAaron Taylor © Oliver Wyman INDUSTRY FINANCIAL RESULTS: GLOBAL AIRLINE INDEX2% MARGIN ON 4% CAPACITY GROWTH; CASM GROWTH OUTPACES RASM GROWTH Airlines in our worldwide index producedan operating margin of 2.3% down slightly fromfirst quarter 2024. Expense growth was greaterthan revenue growth resulting in a smalldecline in operating margin •Latin American carriers had the largestoperating margin at 15.6%, followed byAsia/Pacific at 6.2% •European carriers collectively reported a-2.6% operating margin •North American carriers had the largestincrease in RASM albeit a relatively smallincrease •Costs were managed well during the quarterwith the largest increase in Asia/Pacific atonly 2.9% •RASM and CASM continued to rapidlydecrease for the collective Latin Americancarriers INDUSTRY UNIT ECONOMIC DRIVERS: GLOBAL AIRLINE INDEXOUTSIDE OF LATIN AMERICA, REVENUE AND COST GROWTH OUTPACED CAPACITY GROWTH Unit revenue (RASM) growthYear-over-year growth in %, bubble size denotes capacity Year-over-year growth in %, bubble size denotes capacity MACRO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS: WORLDWIDEREVENUE GROWTH AND DECLINING FUEL COST, BUT EMERGING ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY While revenue growth has outpaced GDP year-over-year, uncertainty has emerged aseconomic growth has slowed during the firstquarter. Declining fuel costs have helpedmoderate otherwise increasing expenses •Worldwide Real GDP grew 2.9% year overyear, however…–US real GDP contracted 0.2% over Q42024 •Year over year, worldwide airline revenuegrowth outpaced GDP •Spending and disposable income were upyear over year, however, similar to GDP,both numbers seem to be slowing since themost recent quarter •Average cost per gallon of jet fueldropped 20% and is nearing $2 per gallon •The sharp decline in jet fuel cost continuesto mask other cost growth at worldwideairlines GLOBAL OPERATING MARGINS BY AIRLINELATIN AMERICA LEADS WITH 16% MARGIN; EUROPE LAGS OTHERS WITH -3% MARGIN Airline operating margins– Q1 2025 03 airlineperformanceby region North America Overview of regional trends forUS/Canada INDUSTRY FINANCIAL RESULTS: NORTH AMERICA INDEX SLOWING CAPACITY GROWTH AMIDST SOFTENING DEMAND AND AN UNCERTAIN OUTLOOK •Capacity growth slowed to 1.6% in responseto slowing demand •Slower capacity growth helped boost RASMby 1.5% but also contributed to CASMgrowth of 1% •Overall, operating margin increased by 0.5points to 0.7% •In the US, traffic growth declined steadilythrough the quarter as broader consumersentiment fell to its lowest point in years,leading to economic contraction •While all demand segments showedweakness, international visitation to the USwent negative year-over-year •Against this backdrop, many airlines saidthey were unable to provide financialguidance to their investors (either revokingguidance or issuing multiple sets of“scenarios”) FINANCIAL RESULTS BY BUSINESS MODEL: NORTH AMERICA INDEXFULL-SERVICE CARRIERS REMAIN PROFITABLE, LOWER-COST CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE