精密制造为翼，人形机器人黑马迎风起
2024A2025E2026E7,1299,26211,53618.4529.9224.56253.95413.10575.09493.7762.6739.211.462.383.3264.7739.8128.60 东吴证券研究所1/432025年06月19日证券分析师曾朵红执业证书：S0600516080001021-60199793zengdh@dwzq.com.cn证券分析师阮巧燕执业证书：S0600517120002021-60199793ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn证券分析师岳斯瑶执业证书：S0600522090009yuesy@dwzq.com.cn94.81一年最低/最高价45.13/182.003.11流通A股市值(百万元)11,827.89总市值(百万元)16,447.42每股净资产(元,LF)30.51资产负债率(%,LF)67.06总股本(百万股)173.48流通A股(百万股)124.752024/10/182025/2/162025/6/17震裕科技沪深300 股价走势市场数据收盘价(元)市净率(倍)基础数据相关研究2024/6/19 -18%5%28%51%74%97%120%143%166%189%212% 内容目录1.立足精密级进冲压模具，“一体两翼”纵向布局..............................................................................51.1.发展历程：深耕模具行业，纵向拓展电机铁芯、锂电结构件................................................51.2.财务情况：新业务起量高速增长，盈利能力拐点已现............................................................62.模具：公司业务拓展的基石，技术实力全球领先............................................................................102.1.精密级进冲压模具技术要求高，公司技术实力领先..............................................................102.2.公司具备纵向业务拓展能力，从模具拓展至精密结构件业务..............................................132.3.铁芯业务：与模具业务上下游协同，新能源电动车驱动电机铁芯行业龙头......................163.锂电结构件：绑定大客户持续高增长，盈利拐点已现....................................................................203.1.结构件行业格局稳定，公司绑定大客户市占率稳步提升......................................................203.2.公司结构件客户持续拓展，盈利拐点已现..............................................................................234.入局人形机器人领域，精密制造能力赋能丝杠................................................................................264.1.行业：丝杆为人形机器人核心零部件，价值量高远期空间大..............................................264.2.行业：丝杠技术壁垒高，高精度、大规模生产为核心痛点..................................................284.3.公司：具备精密加工能力及高精度设备积累，丝杠业务进展迅速......................................304.4.公司：丝杠产能建设持续推进，客户进展顺利......................................................................344.5.进一步拓展至执行器领域，进阶为机器人硬件解决方案供应商..........................................354.6.业绩弹性：预计2030年机器人利润贡献占比60%+，弹性显著..........................................385.盈利预测与投资建议............................................................................................................................396.风险提示................................................................................................................................................41 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分东吴证券研究所2/43 图表目录图1：公司发展历程..................................................................................................................................5图2：公司股权结构图（截至2025年3月31日）..............................................................................5图3：营收&归母净利润稳健增长...........................................................................................................8图4：盈利能力持续增长..........................................................................................................................8图5：2020-2024年分产品营业收入（亿元）........................................................................................8图6：2020-2024年分产品毛利率............................................................................................................8图7：2020-2024年费用率........................................................................................................................9图8：2020-2024年现金流情况（亿元）................................................................................................9图9：模具的分类....................................................................................................................................10图10：精密级进冲压模具结构..............................................................................................................11图11：精密级进冲压模具将多个工艺一次性冲压成型......................................................................11图12：精密级进冲压模具的生产工艺复杂..........................................................................................11图13：公司模具收入和毛利率情况......................................................................................................13图14：公司产品布局与世界一流厂商类似..........................................................................................14图15：公司产业链各业务布局情况......................................................................................................14图16：模具技术是精密结构件业务的核心技术..................................................................................15图17：电机结构示意图..........................................................................................................................16图18：电机成本占比..............................................................................................................................16图19：电机铁芯主要竞争格局..............................................................................................................17图20：震裕科技电机铁芯收入及毛利..................................................................................................18图21：震裕科技电机铁芯出货量及单价..............................................................................................18图22：不同厂商电机铁芯应用行业.....................................................................................................
