陆家嘴金融论坛：政策推动国内资本市场与人民币内化

AnalystCHANG Huili, PhDSAC No. S0570520110002SFC No. BJC906changhuili@htsc.com+(86) 10 6321 1166 Huatai Research 19 June 2025│China (Mainland) Quick Take AnalystEva YISAC No. S0570520100005SFC No. AMH263evayi@htsc.com+(852) 3658 6000 The2025Lujiazui Forumcommenced in Shanghai onWednesday, 18 June 2025.Atthe opening ceremony,PBOC(People’s Bank of China)Governor PanGongshengannouncedeight financial opening measures, focusing onfinancialinfrastructure,digital finance,cross-border trade,andregulatory innovation,underscoring the central bank’s policy focus oninvigorating domestic financialmarketsanddeepeningfinancialopenness. Onpolicy stance,domestic monetary policycould prioritizestructuraltoolswithlimited room forfurther RRR/rate cuts, in our view.Governor Pan’skeynoteoffered minimal elaboration on monetary policy,reiterating thePBOC’saccommodative stanceand commitment toassessing and refining themonetarypolicy framework.As analyzed in ourreport 2H25 Outlook:MoreOpportunities Emerge when the Fog Lifts,dated4 June 2025),subdued bankNIMs(net interest margins)may cap the magnitude of rate cuts, witha50bp RRRcutand10bp rate cutlikely in 2H25.We thus believe themonetarypolicy focuscould shift tostructural tools, including: 1) the expansion of structural lendingfacilities(announced on 7 May); 2) potentialimplementation of policy-orientedfinancial instruments; and 3)market-stabilizing tools, all of which should in ourviewsupportbase currency expansionand reviveM2 and TSF(total socialfinancing)growth. Additionally, the PBOC will continueoptimizing andinnovatingstructural tools.Governor Pannotedatthe forum thatShanghaiwould pilot theinnovation of structural monetary policytools, includingblockchain-basedshipping&trade finance relending,cross-border trade refinancing, andexpanded carbonemission reduction support tools. Domesticmonetary policy emphasizesrevitalizing financial marketstofosterinnovation.ThemeasuresannouncedbyGovernorPan—includingShanghai’spilotreformsforoffshoretradefinanceservices,developing FTZ(free trade zone)offshore bonds,enhancing free tradeaccount functions, andadvancing RMBforex&futures trading—couldin our viewdiversifydomestic financial productsand drive financial innovation. Concurrently,Governor Pan stated the PBOCwould actively promoteShanghai’s inauguralapplication of sci-tech innovation bond risk-sharing toolsto helpprivate equityfirms issuescience & innovation-focused bonds, therebystepping up the supportfor science and innovation.NFRA (National Financial Regulatory Administration)CommissionerLiYunzehighlightedstrengthenedfinancialsupportforconsumptionand other‘five key areas’,whileCSRC Chairman WuQingannounced‘1+6’initiativesto deepen theSTAR(Science and TechnologyInnovation Board)Marketreformand enhanceequity-debt linkage mechanismsfortech financing. Meanwhile,interbank market transaction repositoriesandpersonalcreditagencies would be established.We believe these measurescouldimproveinformationtransparencyandriskmonitoring,effectivelycurbingsystematicfinancialrisks. Monetarypolicyexternallyemphasizessupportingcorporateglobalization,RMBinternationalization, andBelt & RoadInitiatives(BRI).WebelieveGovernor Pan’s announced measures—developing FTZ offshorebondsandupgradingfree trade account functions—will help broaden financingchannelsfordomestic firms going globaland enterprises along theBRI,facilitatingcross-border investment&financing. Additionally, establishing aDigitalRMBInternational Operations Centercouldin our viewboostcross-border tradeefficiencywhile elevating the RMB’s role in theglobal monetary system,advancingmulticurrency diversificationon the global stage. Governor Pan statedin his keynotespeechthatemerging technologies likeblockchain and distributedledgertechnology(DLT)areacceleratingCBDCs(centralbankdigital currency)andstablecoin adoption.We expect the PBOC to prioritizeDigitalRMBincross-border payments/settlementto advance RMB internationalization.We believeprogressing RMB forex&futures trading researchwill improveFXmarket product diversity,better manage andmitigate currency risksforfinancialinstitutionsand enterprises,and further support the RMB’s globalization.Separately,NFRA Commissioner Li Yunzepledged tosteadily expand institutionalfinancialopennessandoptimize foreign investment environments,whileSAFE(State Administration of Foreign Exchange)Administrator Zhu Hexinvowed toestablish aforeign exchange management systemthat ismore convenient, open,secure, and smarter. Risks:financial openness at home missing our expectations; global financialmarket volatility exceeding our estimates. Disclaimers Analyst Certification I/We, CHANG Huili, Eva YI, herebycertify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of theanalyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be, directly orindirectly, related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this report.