特朗普第二届政府的经济后果：初步评估

RAPIDRESPONSE ECONOMICS 6 TheEconomicConsequencesoftheSecondTrumpAdministration: APreliminaryAssessment TheEconomicConsequencesoftheSecondTrumpAdministration: APreliminaryAssessment WITHSUPPORTOFCEPRPARISFOUNDINGPARTNERS CEPRPRESS CentreforEconomicPolicyResearch187boulevardSaint-Germain 75007,Paris,France 2ColdbathSquareLondonEC1R5HL,UK Tel:+44(0)2071838801 Email:cepr@cepr.orgWeb:www.cepr.org ISBN:978-1-912179-94-7 Copyright©CEPRPress TheEconomicConsequencesoftheSecondTrumpAdministration: APreliminaryAssessment EditedbyGaryGensler,SimonJohnson,UgoPanizzaandBeatriceWederdiMauro CENTREFORECONOMICPOLICYRESEARCH(CEPR) TheCentreforEconomicPolicyResearch(CEPR)isanetworkofalmost1,900researcheconomistsbasedmostlyinEuropeanuniversities.TheCentre’sgoalistwofold:topromoteworld-classresearch,andtogetthepolicy-relevantresultsintothehandsofkeydecision-makers.CEPR’sguidingprincipleis’Researchexcellencewithpolicyrelevance’.ItwasfoundedintheUKin1983,whereitisaCharity,andinNovember2019CEPRinitiatedthecreationofanAssociationunderFrenchlaw,inordertoprovideavehicleforanexpansioninFrance.ThemembersoftheConseild’AdministrationoftheAssociationareidenticaltotheUKBoardofTrustees. CEPRisindependentofallpublicandprivateinterestgroups.IttakesnoinstitutionalstandoneconomicpolicymattersanditscorefundingcomesfromitsInstitutionalMembers,projectsthatitrunsandsalesofpublications.Becauseitdrawsonsuchalargenetworkofresearchers,itsoutputreflectsabroadspectrumofindividualviewpointsaswellasperspectivesdrawnfromcivilsociety.CEPRresearchmayincludeviewsonpolicy,buttheTrustees/membersoftheConseild’AdministrationoftheAssociationdonotgivepriorreviewtoitspublications.TheopinionsexpressedinthisreportarethoseoftheauthorsandnotthoseofCEPR. ChairoftheBoardSirCharlieBeanFounderandHonoraryPresidentRichardPortes PresidentBeatriceWederdiMauro VicePresidentsMaristellaBotticiniAntonioFatás UgoPanizzaHélèneRey ChiefExecutiveOfficerTessaOgden Contents Forewordviii 1TheeconomicconsequencesofthesecondTrumpadministration:Keyassessments1 GaryGensler,SimonJohnson,UgoPanizza,andBeatriceWederdiMauro PartI:EconomictransformationintheUnitedStates 2Fiscalpolicyanddebtsustainability35 AntonioFatásandUgoPanizza 3Presidentialsupremacyoveradministrativeagencies51 GaryGenslerandLevMenand 4Theruleoflaw67 JohnCoates 5Theeconomiceffectsofrapidfederaldownsizing81 JoshBivens 6Immigrationandborderpolicies95 AnnaMariaMaydaandGiovanniPeri 7Thefinancialsectorandglobaldollarsystem111 GaryGensler,LevMenandandJoshuaYounger 8Consumerfinancialprotection125 NealeMahoney 9Competitionpolicy133 JonathanB.Baker 10Artificialintelligencedevelopmentandpolicylandscape141 GaryGensler 11WilltheUnitedStatescontinuetoleadinscience?155 DavidBakerandSimonJohnson 12Healthcare167 JonathanGruber 13DownsizingtheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration175 ValerieJ.KarplusandCostaSamaras 14Changesinfederalclimatepolicy181 JohnE.T.Bistline 15Ruraleconomiesandcommunities197 MaryK.HendricksonandDavidJ.Peters 16The(non)effectoftariffsonmanufacturingemployment209 MichaelR.Strain PartII:Reshapingtheinternationaleconomicsystem 17Theglobalpublicgood225 BarryEichengreen 18FromMFNto“reciprocaltariffs”233 KevinHjortshøjO’Rourke 19USmiddle-classmalaiseandtheworldtradesystem239 RichardBaldwin 20Theaftermathoftariffs245 KimberlyA.Clausing 21Firstestimationsoftheeffectsofreciprocaltariffs257 AntoineBouët 22WhopaysforUStariffs?269 MarceloOlarreagaandSaraSantander 23Sevenquestionsabouttariffs279 ArnaudCostinotandAndrésRodríguez-Clare 24Nationalsecuritytariffsontheautoindustry289 KeithHead,ThierryMayer,VincentVicardandPaulineWibaux PartIII:Spilloverstoadvancedeconomies 25StrategicautonomyforEuroperequireseconomicgrowth303 LuisGaricano 26TradewarsandEuropeanmonetarypolicy311 PaulBerginandGiancarloCorsetti 27RethinkingthegovernanceandfundingofEuropeanrearmament327 ArminSteinbach,GuntramWolff,andJerominZettelmeyer 28AdvancedtechnologyasEurope’sstrategicimperative339 TomEnders,JeannettezuFürstenberg,RenéObermannandMoritzSchularick 29TheeconomicsoftheEuropeandefencebuildup349 EthanIlzetzki 30Spendingtargetsversusmilitarycapacity361 RalphLuettickeandGernotMüller 31UkraineandEurope369 YuriyGorodnichenko 32Canada379 MarkManger 33Greenland385 BoLidegaard,MiraKleistandNickBækHeilmann 34Japan397 KenichiUeda PartIV:Spilloverstoemerginganddevelopingeconomies 35Emergingmarkets407 RobinBrooks 36China413 YashengHuang 37India423 ArvindSubramanian 38Mexico429 AlejandroWerner 39LatinAmerica:Tariffsandindustialisation441 SebastianEdwards 40TheimpactofUSforeignaidcutsonglobalhealth459 CharlesKennyandJustinSandefur Foreword THEECONOMICSOFBREXIT:WHATHAVEWELEARNED? vIII TheCentreforEconomicPolicyResearch(CEPR)haslongplayedaroleinfacilitatinginformed,evidence-baseddialoguearoundpivotaldevelopmentsineconomicpolicy.In2017werespondedtothestartofPresidentDonaldTrump’sfirsttermbypublishingEconomicsandPolicyintheAgeofTrump,atimelycollectionofexpertperspectivesonthepotentialimplicationsofhisadministration’searlyactions.Eightyearslater,withPresidentT