商务航空峰会要点：公务机投资者观察到原始设备制造商向服务领域转移

USA | Aerospace & Defense Electronics Biz Av Summit Takes: Corporate Jet InvestorObserves OEMs Shift Into Services We hosted Alasdair Whyte, Co-Founder of Corporate Jet Investor at ourJefferies Business Aviation Summit. Key takes: 1) Pre-owned jets are seeingprice corrections, while demand is resilient for new jets; 2) OEMs are shiftinginto services to increase involvement throughout the aircraft life-cycle; 3)Demand for ultra-long-range jets has far outpaced expectations, supported bycompelling products including the G700/800, Global 7500/8000, and Falcon10X. Don't Sleep on Europe's Role in the Biz Av Market.Despite some short-term softening, Europeremains an important and active market for business aviation, especially for replacement dealsand large aircraft sales. Large OEMs have benefited from strong demand in Europe, but smalleraircraft sales have experienced some customer hesitancy. Fractional ownership is growing dueto its appeal to corporates. Discretion is key in Europe, where private jet use is more low-profile,unlike in other regions. Outside Europe, Brazil is experiencing rapid growth and is now the secondlargest business jet fleet, globally. That being said, tax reforms in the next three years could changeimportation. Saudi Arabia’s outlook is promising, with seven new business jet airports planned by2030 and increasing OEM activity. The Divide Between New And Pre-Owned Jets.There’s a clear divide between the new and pre-owned markets. The pre-owned market is experiencing price corrections, especially for older aircraftbought at inflated prices during COVID, and buyers in this segment may not transition to new aircraftpurchases. For new jets, demand is stable and strong, unlike in 2008 when there was oversupply.OEM backlogs are long, with some aircraft models having 2–5 year wait times, discouraging buyersfrom delaying orders. This is due in part to the pandemic, which introduced many new buyersto business aviation who might not have entered otherwise. Once customers experienced privateaviation, they tended to stick with it, making demand more resilient. Commercial airline servicehasn’t improved, reinforcing the appeal of private jets. Most business jets are owned by individualsor small operators (fewer than five aircraft), so large fleet operators are the exception and holdunique leverage in the market. OEMs Shifting Into Services.There is a shift in the business aviation industry, with manufacturersincreasingly getting more involved in the entire life-cycle of the aircraft, not just the sale.Manufactures have started shifting into the service business and becoming involved in the aircraftafter its sale as a means to generate recurring revenue. While most business jets are owned byindividuals with little bargaining power, large fleet operators like NetJets and Flexjet own hundredsof aircraft which gives them leverage similar to major airlines. Legacy operators like NetJets areperforming very well but tend to operate quietly and steadily, without much media attention. Neweror more visible operators, like Flexjet and flyExclusive have gained attention, but legacy players arestill dominant and successful. Sheila Kahyaoglu * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 336-7216 | sheila.kahyaoglu@jefferies.com Greg Konrad, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 284-2391 | gkonrad@jefferies.com Ellen Page * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 323-3381 | epage@jefferies.com There Is Enough Room For All Four Ultra-Long-Range Jets.The ultra-long-range jet market hasfar exceeded early expectations. Originally, OEMs thought there was room for only ~500 aircrafttotal, which is now outdated. There is strong, ongoing demand for flying farther in greater comfort,especially among the growing number of ultra-wealthy individuals. Both the G700 and G800 havedistinct offerings and can coexist successfully. Dassault’s 10X will be impressive but produced Kyle Wenclawiak * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 323-7671 | kwenclawiak@jefferies.com Conor Walters * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 323-3395 | cwalters@jefferies.com in lower volumes, so it will not over-saturate the market. Bombardier’s Global 7500 has beensuccessful, and the 8000 is very similar. Continued on next page... Demand Mid Cyle for Newer Heavy and Mid-Sized Jets.According to CJI, New aircraft models suchas the Gulfstream G400 (super mid size) and Cessna Citation Ascend (mid-size) are currently in a pre-EIS order lull. The cycle is similar to a camel hump, with an initial spike in interest and orders whenthe aircraft is first announced, followed by a dip in momentum until deliveries begin, and a rise ininterest once the aircraft enters service. Certification challenges are slowing momentum, but long-term demand remains strong for both models. Speaker Bios •Alasdair Whyteis co-founder of Corporate Jet Investor, the information and events business forthe global business jet market he launched with his wife Louisa. Alasdair started writing aboutaviation in 1998 and edited and publish