建筑与施工：规划路径

EUROPE | Building, Construction &Housebuilders Equity ResearchJune 13, 2025 Building & Construction: Charting the Way This report seeks to provide a comprehensive summary of constructiondemand drivers across the range of end markets for the 20 most importantcountries across our coverage universe. Published monthly, it shows recenttrends and across-the-cycle context to provide insight into future earningsreleases but also longer-term cyclical and structural positioning. •UK - Steady.The PMI downturn eased in May, mostly driven by improvement in thecommercial & civil sectors. On the residential side, with changes in the stamp duty onbuying a home, mortgage approvals were a touch negative YoY, but house price inflationremained positive at c+2.5% YoY despite abating MoM. Material costs remained stable.• France - Signs of life.The production index showed a slight decline, the May PMI slippedMoM, and expectations for price declines persisted. However, business confidence rosesignificantly into positive territory, residential build permits increased by c.+30% YoY (oneasy comps), and dwelling starts saw modest growth. RMI expectations returned to apositive outlook, proving more resilient than new builds.• Germany - Improving confidence.While the PMI saw a slight MoM reduction and theconstruction production index was flat YoY, PMI construction sentiment turned positivefor the first time since 2022. Additionally, both residential build permits and new ordersshowed YoY growth in March.• Scandi - Still mixed.Sweden's production index continues to rise YoY, albeit at an easingrate. Negative opinions on order books and confidence sharply lessened MoM, althoughprice expectations turned negative. The decline in Norway's production index was stable,while Finland's production index showed steady growth.• Other European markets.Ireland’s latest PMI turned negative, with housing seeingits first slight dip in 8 months despite FTB mortgage approvals remaining up c.5%YoY. Recent momentum inItalystayed consistent (May PMI slightly more positive andconfidence indicator stable MoM), andPoland's residential build permits have decreasedslightly YoY, while the number of housing starts has declined MoM.• US -Residential still dragging. Residential end markets continue to be the weak spot,with value put in place down mid-single digits, housing permits and completions down2.5% and 12.3%, respectively, and builders' confidence deteriorating. Commercial trendswere mixed, with a tick-up in the Dodge index but a double-digit decline in the ABI in April.•InCanada, construction GDP remained stable. Residential permit values saw a sharpdecline, but housing starts posted a solid increase.• Mexico's construction production index slipped back into a slight YoY contraction,whileBrazil's construction confidence slightly ticked down in May despite constructionemployment and construction credit outstanding still showing growth.• Australia.Approvals for dwellings continued to see double-digit increases in April,although the pace of growth abated a touch. The value of building approvals in non-residential rose significantly. April values for renovation (alterations & adjustments) weremarginally down YoY.• Laura Ojeil * | Equity Analyst+44 (0)20 7029 8220 | lojeil@jefferies.com China's May PMI remained positive but eased MoM. House prices continued to declineat a slowing rate, and cement production rose mid-single-digit.• Glynis Johnson * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8677 | glynis.johnson@jefferies.com India and Indonesia.India continued to see growth in bank credit for construction andcement production, along with modest growth in housing starts. In contrast, Indonesiashowed a slight decline in business activity and a mid-single-digit decrease in housingstarts; however, there was a sequential YoY increase in cement volumes. Priyal Woolf * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8183 | pwoolf@jefferies.com Graham Hunt, CFA * | Equity Analyst44 (0)20 7548 4251 | ghunt@jefferies.com Gonzalo Riera Ripoll * | Equity Associate+44 (0)20 7548 4690 | grieraripoll@jefferies.com Table of contents Sector coverage: ratings, price targets and valuations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3Breakdown of sales by geography 2024E (pro forma) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4Recent construction data across the 20 countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Australia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Belgium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .