北美航空公司：6月13日周运力更新

Weekly Capacity Update: June13th 2Q25 domestic US growth unchanged at +2.3%; 3Q25domestic growth reduced 56bps over the past week withindustry now up less than 1%. All large carriers reduceddomestic capacity over the past two weeks. North America AirlinesPOSITIVE North America AirlinesBrandon R. Oglenski+1 212 526 8903brandon.oglenski@barclays.comBCI, US This report is an overview of capacity changes present in this past week’s schedule, as measuredon an available seat-mile basis. Current schedules were live as of June 13th, which we compare tolast week's capacity report with schedules that were live as of May 30th. John Dorsett+1 212 526 8487john.dorsett@barclays.comBCI, US 2Q25 domestic US capacity is largely unchanged at 2.3%; system growth including USinternational markets is at 3.3%. Over the past two weeks,United reduced June domesticUS scheduled capacity by 15bps, there were no other notable reductions to second quartercapacity. See Figures 1-2 and Figures 4-5 for 2Q25 summary and monthly carrier changes tocurrent schedules over the past week. American, Delta and United scheduled domestic UScapacity is 4.6%, 4.4% and 6.7%, respectively. Eric Morgan, CFA+1 212 526 9642eric.morgan@barclays.comBCI, US David Zazula, CFA+1 212 526 5108david.zazula@barclays.comBCI, US 3Q25 domestic US schedules were reduced 56bps over the past week to +0.5% and systemgrowth including US international markets is up 2.8%; American, Delta, United, Alaska andJetBlue all reduced September schedules.We believe 3Q25 schedules are becoming morereliable as American, Delta and United all made negative downward revisions to domesticcapacity growth over the past two weeks. 3Q25 scheduled domestic US capacity growth forAmerican, Delta and United is now 2.8%, 1.6% and 6.5%, respectively. See Figure 3 and Figures6-8 for 3Q25 summary and monthly carrier changes to current schedules over the past twoweeks. American and Delta reduced September domestic capacity by 1.4pts to 0.9% and 2.1ptsto +0.7%, respectively. We note that among the network carriers, United has yet to materiallyreduce third quarter capacity and is driving industry domestic growth but managementhighlighted on the first quarter earnings call that expansion plans had been reduced by fourpoints relative to prior aspirations (not disclosed). Further, Alaska reduced September growthby 2.4pts to -4% and JetBlue reduced capacity 4.0pts to -4%. Further, Allegiant has reducedthird quarter capacity to +9% which follows management first quarter commentary thatcapacity would be reduced in the back half to better match demand. We note that low fare andlow cost carriers have muted or even contracting capacity in the third quarter, with domesticindustry growth primarily being driven by the network carriers. As always, we welcome your questions and comments, Barclays Airlines Research Team FIGURE 1. Domestic and System Schedule Changes from June to October, and 2Q25 and 3Q25 Source: Diio mi, Barclays Research FIGURE 4. May 2025 US Scheduled Capacity Growth; Domestic US Scheduled Growth at 1.7% Source: Diio mi, Barclays Research FIGURE 7. August 2025 US Scheduled Capacity Growth, Domestic US Now Flat, United Reduced 92bps, Alaska Reduced 85bps Frontier Reduced1pt and Allegiant Reduced 2.8pts Source: Diio mi, Barclays Research FIGURE 8. September 2025 US Scheduled Capacity Growth, Domestic US Now Flat, American Reduced 1.4pts, Delta Reduced 2.1pts, JetBlueReduced 4.0pts and Alaska Reduced 2.3pts Analyst(s) Certification(s): I, Brandon R. Oglenski, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of thesubject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Important Disclosures: Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT. Availability of Disclosures: Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072. The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients