航站楼动态：需求数据点更稳定、第二季度预览、石油冲击

USA | Airlines What's Up at the Terminal: More Stable DemandData Pts, Q2 Previews, Oil Shock What's Up at the Terminaltracks airline news: 1) Airline demand still stable &consistent per JEF Airlines Summit and American Express comments; 2) JEFQ2 previews for DAL and UAL; 3) Frontier highlights order book creates capacityfor 10%/yr to '31; 4) DAL issues $2BB unsecured notes at avg 5.1% rate to repay$1.6BB PSP at SOFR+2%; 5) UAL FA contract raises of 26-28% w/ vote in July;and 6) Oil shock from ME conflict, >10% higher. DAL and UAL Q2 Previews.We published our DAL and UAL Q2 previews, w/ EPS above the midptof the ranges. ForDAL, we est $2.10 of Q2 EPS (guide $1.70-2.30) on adj TRASM down 3.6% andCASM-ex up 2.4%. Q3 EPS of $1.27 (cons $1.46) assumes TRASM improves modestly to down2.4%, which could be toward the low-end of the potential guidance range. ForUAL, we est $3.90 ofQ2 EPS (guide $3.25-4.25) w/ the recent commentary pointing to the midpt of the guide, down fromthe high-end prior to the EWR issues (20% of system ASMs). Q3 EPS of $2.55 (cons $2.84) assumesTRASMs are down 2.0% y-o-y, flat relative to our Q2 est, as EWR issues are likely to continue toweigh on Domestic and Atlantic yields. American Express Describes Q2 Spending as Consistent.AXP indicated that to-date Q2 billingsremain consistent vs the lower Q1:25 levels. Similar to the Q1 trends, Airlines and Lodging remainstable at the lower levels, while Restaurant and T&E remain strong. On travel, mgmt notes itsinternational business remains strong, even amid reports that Canadian and European travelers aretraveling less to the US, mainly because these cohorts continue to travel but to other destinations. Airfare CPI Down 7.3% Y-o-Y in May.May CPI of +2.4% y-o-y with Core CPI +2.8% (unch from April),but with airfares down 7.3% y-o-y and down 2.7pts m-o-m. DAL Prices $2BB Refi.DAL completed unsecured notes offerings with $1BB at 4.95% due 2028and $1BB at 5.25% due 2030. The issuance will be used to repay the first tranche of $1.6BB of PSPloans, which step from 1.00% last year to SOFR + 2.00%. United Flight Attendant Contract Details.The 28,000 flight attendants of AFA-CWA and UAL willvote on the contract from July 7 to July 29, which features 26-28% date-of-signing raises, followedby 3% in Year 1, 3% in Year 2, 3.5% in Year 3, and 3.75% in Year 4. There is $595MM of retroactivepay plus new boarding pay. There is pushback on new layover rules around the quality of hotelsand new crew availability rules. Frontier Order Book Supports 10%/Yr Capacity to 2031.At our 5th Annual Airlines Summit, Frontierstated its order book that extends to 2031 provides support for HSD to 10% capacity growth peryear, holding utilization steady. Sheila Kahyaoglu * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 336-7216 | sheila.kahyaoglu@jefferies.com Frontier Adds to ATL and San Diego w/ Intro Fares as Low as $49.ULCC launched service to 6cities fromATLthis week for a total of 52 nonstop destinations, w/ departures +40% y-o-y in June:Jacksonville (2x/wk, $59 intro fare); Fort Myers (2x/wk, $59); Honduras (2x/wk, $89); St. Louis (3x/wk, $69); Columbus (2x/wk, $49), and Palm Beach (2x/wk, $59). New service fromSan Diego(SAN)started this week: Chicago (daily, $59); Austin (4x/wk, $59), and Salt Lake City (3x/wk, $59). Greg Konrad, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 284-2391 | gkonrad@jefferies.com Kyle Wenclawiak * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 323-7671 | kwenclawiak@jefferies.com Conor Walters * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 323-3395 | cwalters@jefferies.com Eegan McDermott * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 323-3325 | emcdermott1@jefferies.com Oil Driven >10% Higher from Middle East Conflict.In the past week, Brent and WTI crude oilprices have increased 10-15% given the regional destabilization from Israel striking Iranian nuclearfacilities, air defenses, and military personnel. North America Delta Ending Partnership with Hawaiian and China Southern.DAL (SkyTeam) and Hawaiian'scodeshare and miles agreement in place since 2010 is set to end as Hawaiian integrates with Alaska(oneworld). DAL will no longer recognize miles & benefits earned on Hawaiian tickets issued after June30, w/ miles to stop accruing after April 1, 2026. DAL will also end its partnership with China Southernlater this summer. APAC Jetstar Asia to Cease by End of July.Singapore-based low-cost Jetstar Asia will close by the end ofJuly due to rising competition & cost inflation. Qantas is a 49% owner, which stated Australia-basedJetstar Airways and Japan-based Jetstar Japan will continue to operate, with Jetstar Asia's 13 planesto be redeployed to Australia and New Zealand. EMEA Air India Flight AI171 Crashes Soon After Takeoff.Air India Flight AI171 from Ahmedabad (AMD) toLondon Gatwick (LGW) crashed soon after takeoff. The 787-8 aircraft was carrying 242 passengersand crew members including 169 Indian nationals, 53 British nationals, one Canadian national and 7Portuguese nationals. ADS-B data shows the flight reaching an altit